Mohawk: Monday 5/22 Analysis
Best Bet: CASE DISMISSED (7TH)
Spot Play: STAN THE MAN (2ND)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,4,9/5,7,9/2,5,7/2,9,10/2,7 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,9,10/2,7/3,4,7,8/10 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 7/3,4/6,7,8/3,4,5,6,7 = $30
MEET STATS: 77 - 214 / $466.30 BEST BETS: 10 - 21 / $45.50
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 21 / $52.00
Race 1
We kick things off with two amateur driving races and in the opener, we have Hannah Miller driving (4) TORTOLA SUNRISE, a gelding that has always shown good tactical speed. I'll side with this combo on top. (2) IRISH THUNDER also has sharp early speed and he comes off a blowout win at Sarnia. He will have to be caught. (9) MUSICAL SPELL faces much easier here and picks up one of the better amateur teamsters. He is worth a long look and he could be a nice overlay here. (5) TOSS IT BACK is another that can lay close to the lead and stick around for a price.
Race 2
(9) STAN THE MAN will no doubt be blasting early here and if he can make the front without too much trouble, he can lead these on a merry chase. (7) HAPPY HOLIDAYS has been racing well and she should be racing close to the front here, which gives her a good chance to make the ticket. (5) BELLA PALAZZO faces much easier here; consider. (8) LEXUS ROCKY is worth a look with Miller driving. She frequently wins these races while not driving the best horse.
Race 3
(2) ROCK N FANTASY raced well last time when third to a North America Cup hopeful who came back to win in 1:52 1/5 a class higher. This colt should get put into play earlier here. (5) KAZIMOTO comes out of the same race where he trailed early then finished with some interest. He should get a better start from the middle of the gate and he is a factor here. (7) FACE OF WAR is dangerous here coming off two quick miles at Flamboro; using. (3) SEDONA SEELSTER rarely wins, but he can tag along near the front and stay for a slice.
Race 4
(2) LIVELY FREDDIE is a good longshot prospect here dropping in class for his third start off a break having shown improvement last week. With the obvious contenders lined up on the far outside, I'll take a stab with him. (9) OFORPETESAKE showed good speed both early and late when winning for driver Davis Jr. last time. That pilot sticks and they are in the mix here. (10) MEABRACH couldn't reach from first-over last week, but that was his second good mile in a row after changing barns. He figures here, but post isn't ideal, obviously. (1) FOUR CARD MAJOR was a big favorite last time dropping down and a predictable loser if you saw his previous start in which he didn't look the soundest. Take a good look at him on the track if you are considering playing him.
Race 5
(7) THREE MORE SMILES switches to a trainer that can improve one right away and driver Roy chose this one over two others; top call. (2) SHAGNWITHTHEDRAGON rallied for a nice maiden win at first asking, but he was disqualified for causing interference to the runner-up. He can only benefit from having that race experience in tow; using. (9) MAVERICK JOE showed a bit of late interest in his debut and he could rally for a share here this time, especially if he gets a better start. (4) THIS IS MY SONG is 0 for 15, but the colt who beat him last time came back with another sharp win vs. better. He should take a slice here.
Race 6
(7) PONDAS LEXUS moves off the dreaded rail and Roy sticks. She could be a good price here. I will give her a slight nod over (3) JAKE, who is a Hambletonian prospect and obviously the best horse in the field. With him, though, you have to consider the big picture and understand that this race can be a means to an end. (4) JANDERSON qualified sharply, and has the look of a contender, but she too has bigger fish to fry this summer; tough call. (8) PAMPERED IN PINK has hit her best stride for Vanderkemp and she is another that must be considered when making horizontal wagers.
Race 7
(10) CASE DISMISSED has been lights out the past two starts, now she goes for Moreau/Roy off the claim here. I doubt post 10 is enough to stop her considering how sharp she has been; top call. (1) JEMBA JEMBA's race two back is good enough to suggest she will be competitive here. (2) GOLDIES BAD GIRL can be closer here moving off post 10. Consider for exotic plays. (6) JAMES AND MORGAN can be a factor racing close to the front here and has upset possibilities if she can work out a pocket trip.
Race 8
(7) HANNELORE HANOVER towers over these class-wise. Expect her to rebound here. (2) EMOTICON HANOVER had two useful preps getting ready for this. She looks next best. (1) BARN GIRL draws the tricky #1 post, which has been horrible of late. I'll try to beat her out of the exacta here, but she obviously figures. (5) SIDE BET HANOVER can take a smaller share coming in here with a good tightener in tow.
Race 9
(4) CLASSIC PRO has looked great so far this year and while the waters get deeper here, his price should go up. I'll stick with him. (3) IDEAL WHEEL - who Roy chose over the choice - is a major North America Cup contender, but nothing says he has to win here. I'll use him in the Late Pick 4 hoping to beat him. (6) BEYOND DELIGHT is another top contender for the North America Cup, but he is likely to employ a closing style here which probably only gets him a slice. (2) BETTIM CHRIS steps into the deep end here; smallest share predicted.
Race 10
(7) EXQUISITE GLIDE ships in following a sharp win in New Jersey. This isn't the toughest-looking field and he could double up here. (8) HARPER BLUE CHIP begins his quest to become a millionaire here and he attracts Roy; using. (6) HONOR ABOVE ALL was too close to some speed battling last time and he had no response for the winner who swooped by in the lane. He fits well in this class and should be used in the late Pick 4. (10) ST JAMES GATE is capable, but from this post he is likely to be trying to pass them all and is likely to fall short.
Race 11
(7) MR CARROTS is an infrequent winner, but when he does pop, it's always on the class drop. Expect him to leave much quicker than he shows in the program; top call. (3) FLAHERTY should go much better in this field and he is another that can - and likely will - leave much quicker. (4) WHO DOESN'T was too far back last time. He has a decent shot here if Cullen can get him off the gate better. (6) MR CENSI merits attention on connections alone and he maybe wasn't driven the best at Flamboro. (5) PRINCE CLYDE steps up off a sharp effort. He isn't impossible here, but I see him as more of a fringe player.
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