Mohawk: Monday 5/15 Analysis
Best Bet: ETRUSCAN HANOVER (8th)
Spot Play: ROCK THIS WAY (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,6,9/2,5,7,8/4,5/4,9/3,4, = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,9/3,4/5,8,10/1,3,6,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 7/1,5,7/5/ALL = $30
MEET STATS: 59 - 171 / $369.90
BEST BETS: 6 - 17 / $33.30 SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 17 / $36.20
Race 1
(6) HILL OF A COLT showed some promise last year, winning 5 of 8 starts, and his two qualifiers are good enough that he should be ready to compete immediately here returning as a four-year-old; top call. (9) SCENE A MAGICIAN is another returnee that looks primed for a good effort, but it's hard to predict what trip he might get leaving from out there in his sophomore debut. (3) SANTINI had a decent opener at London and he had some good races here last year. He's another in with a decent chance. (1) PONDAS LEXUS is always around the action, but I have a feeling he isn't beating all the top three choices here although he should share.
Race 2
(8) DIAL THE BOSSMAN couldn't keep pace with a colt that came back to win in 1:52 1/5 on Thursday. He should benefit from that outing over an off track and he should be the one to beat here. (2) BRAVE WORLD wasn't far behind the choice in that start and he should be a threat from close range. (5) SHAGNWITHTHEDRAGON is a 1/2 brother to 6-time winner You Mach Me Crazy. He could take a share here in his debut. (7) PENZANCE HANOVER - a $72K yearling purchase - is a 1/2 brother to Penji Hanover ($200K, 1:49 4/5) and a full brother to Yucatan who took a mark of 1:51 flat at Mohawk. His qualifiers are decent and he could better this placing. Watch the board for clues with this one.
Race 3
(4) STRITCH couldn't break her maiden last year, but, she raced mostly in stakes company. Her qualifier is decent enough for these and Macdonald and Steacy clicked with a longshot here on Thursday. I'll give her the nod here. (5) TRY TRY AGAIN - a 1/2 brother to 10-time winner U F Lindsay Lou Who - should be right there based on his three qualifiers; using. (1) NOBLE PRIZE qualified okay over an off track leading up to this seasonal debut. He kept some decent company last year and he should be a factor here. (8) CHARMBO CHROME is usually on the board and he can close for a piece of this.
Race 4
(4) ROCK THIS WAY roared off the gate last week then sat a good trip most of the way before pouncing late. A similarly-aggressive drive here should get him another win. (9) MAKASI has shown improved late speed since returning for his sophomore season. If he is close enough turning for home, he should be a big threat here. (6) WINDSUN GOTHAM went too fast too early in his May 1 mile and he was picked off late. He will have to be caught here. (3) BETTIM CHRIS was over bet last week off a perfect trip win two starts back. He could get a better trip here with the move inside, so keep him in mind when betting multi-race tickets.
Race 5
(4) MACHIN A TRICK encountered a bit of road trouble in his sophomore debut, but still finished a decent 2nd. He is capable of beating these if the trip is good. (3) THE ROADIES went a big mile on the front end last week and he took a new life's mark in the process. He is a big threat right back here. (7) SOUTHWIND MONTY is developing a good late kick and he's worth a look here ate what should be a decent price. (9) WHATASHOWINONTARIO took advantage of a slowing late pace to get up at 51/1 last week. He is unlikely to get the same setup here.
Race 6
(8) RENEGADE MAGIC was hard-driven to make front last week and once she was there, the race was never in doubt. She draws the same post here and she should be a better price. I'll stick with her giving her a slight nod over (5) APRIL ROSE, who should enjoy facing only her own gender here as she has been battling with some tough older horses for a while, with some success. (10) EMOTICON HANOVER raced well in the top class in her return race, but post 10 here could leave her on the fringes. (4) AMOREUSE HANOVER is sent out by a hot barn and her good tactical speed puts her in the mix here.
Race 7
(8) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE couldn't get close to a strong leader last week, but he kept trying and he did gain some ground late. He fits well here and Drury may try to send him right down the road. (6) MAC RAIDER has been racing well his past three starts and Cullen will likely position him near the front early which gives him a puncher's chance here. (3) ROCKIN FINISH came from way back to win last week, and although the pace was slowing late, you don't see many come from 10th to win at this - or any - track; using. (1) ELECTRIC WESTERN is the type that lucks into a couple of wins a year due to trip. I could see him staying glued to the rail and getting lucky late here as one possible scenario.
Race 8
(7) ETRUSCAN HANOVER takes a massive class plunge here and he should control this race from start to finish. (6) MYSTERY BET strangely was pounded at the windows last time and at no point did he look like a winner although he did close well. He can take another share here coming from the back. (9) FLOWERS N SONGS took her life's mark here last year and McNair gets along with her well. She should make the ticket here. (4) LMC MASS OAK is one that will surprise you when you aren't expecting it. A saver on him if he is a big price wouldn't be the worst idea.
Race 9
(1) DOVUTO HANOVER was flying late two starts back, then he blasted early last week before taking a shuffle racing behind a tiring leader. Cullen has some options here and I could see him taking control of this race before the half, top call. (7) PANEDICTINE drops and gets McNair back. Expect a more aggressive approach here. (5) LONEWOLF CURRIER also drops after getting hung out to dry last week. He should go better here. (3) CHEYENNE FORD steps up off a claim, but he should close late for a piece of this.
Race 10
(5) DIA MONDE lands in a good spot to make his four-year-old debut. He should be very tough racing in this company. (10) MAJESTIC PRESENCE parked the mile last time and still won going away. She has never had an issue overcoming an outer post and she will be a good price as always. (9) KEEGAN HO was overbet last week from the 10-hole and trip took its toll in the lane. He is a contender here, but he needs a trip which may not be easy to get starting from out there. (8) MIGHTY NICKY will likely use a closing style here and close in late for a slice.
Race 11
(7) WHO DOESNT was flying up the inside late last week, but the winner had the jump on him. He steps up a class here, but there are no world beaters in here; slight nod. (5) SOUTHWIND MASIMO drops back to a level where he should be competitive; using in the late Pick 4. (6) CHIEF TALKALOT exits some fast races ad he should fit much better in here. He's another in with a decent chance. (10) PAR INTENDED fits well vs. these, but post 10 likely dooms him to no more than a small share. (3) IM THE PIED PIPER was right there in this class two starts back. This is a tricky race that demands wide Pick 4 coverage.
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