Mohawk: Monday 4/17 Analysis
Best Bet: SERGEANT SEELSTER (8th)
Spot Play: EAST END (7th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5,6/2,3,6/4,7,8/1,2,3/3,8 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,3/3,8/6,7,8/2,8,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,8,9/4/2,7/4,5 = $12
MEET STATS: 4 - 10 / $23.00 BEST BETS: 0 - 1 / $0.00
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 1 / $9.90
Race 1
(5) PONDAS LEXUS was driven more conservatively by Roy the second time around last week and it resulted in an easy win. Roy sticks with him and so will I. (6) ROSE RUN REANNA was a good second to the choice and her improving form makes her a threat here. (1) TOUR DE LINDY should get an easier trip moving inside from the 10-hole here. He is another that merits Pick 5 consideration. (3) TATTOO has good form but the time off likely hurts her chances here; minor share predicted.
Race 2
(6) CRANKIN IT UP'S last race is likely good enough to beat these if he can duplicate it here. He should be able to get a breather vs. these which would make him even tougher; top call. (2) RAIN GAUGE comes off two solid wins and he appears to be the main threat to the choice. (3) CHEYENNE FORD is also worth a look going for Johnson off the claim here. (5) LONEWOLF CURRIER put it all together last time for a win, but these are tougher and a smaller share is likely for him this time.
Race 3
(7) ALPHA SEELSTER has the looks of one that could get sent right down the road here if he can stay flat. Davis Jr. knows how to send one; slight nod. (4) WESMOUNT is related to several winners and he raced well enough in his opener to make me think he has some upside; using. (8) ON FIRST showed some good late speed in his March 30th qualifier. He's worth a look here at what should be a decent price. (5) AMANFORALLSEASONS closed a lot of ground last time, but that was into a slowing late pace. Another small share is likely here.
Race 4
(3) BADSTORMANYPORT had improved late speed in his second start out of the Johnson barn last week. This field isn't that tough. He may roll by late at a square price if Hensley gets him into striking position on the last turn. (2) TYMAL VORTEX tired after setting some fast splits in only his 2nd start. McNair returning here makes this gelding a big threat. (1) HEZA BIG DEALER beat both of the top two last time, but he had a much easier trip. He could be over bet here. (5) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH has been flying late but has just been too far back. He certainly has license to better this prediction if he gets a better start.
Race 5
(3) O NARUTAC PERFETTO could be a decent price here stepping up off last week's win, but, he is capable vs. these and he could get another decent trip; slight nod. (8) FINISH LINE escapes the white-hot Odds On Amethyst here which will no doubt make him the chalk. He's the one to beat. (2) CASH FOR GOLD likes Mohawk and he comes off a solid effort vs. the choice. He isn't out of this. (5) CATCH THE DREAM can close for a smaller share.
Race 6
(7) HP BLACK SHADOW could get a great setup here for his late kick and pop at a price. Driver Macdonald brought several longshots in at this meet last year, most using a closing style. (8) LET EM BOUNCE was no match for the winner last week, but he rates highly here if he can produce a similar effort. (6) INTRIGUED INTENDED picks up Lasix and McNair here and he has won several times on this circuit previously; using. (5) HEMINGWAY could stick around for a smaller slice at a big price here.
Race 7
(2) EAST END exits what had to be the fastest $25K claiming handicap of the Woodbine meet and he faces much easier here. He should get back to his winning ways in this spot. (8) TRISUN has improved with Filion driving in the last two starts. He is good at timing this one's move. Watch for him late. (9) THINK AGAIN has developed a strong late kick and Henry chose him over the 10 horse here. He is another that could pass them all with the right set up. (5) SIERRA MADRE typically finishes on the fringes. Tonight should be no different for him.
Race 8
(4) SERGEANT SEELSTER has been too strong in recent starts for me to go against here. (2) ESCUELA is always dangerous if the pace slows late, but that didn't materialize last time. She can provide some exacta value here. (6) TONY SOPRANO was no match for the choice last time, but he could be driven more aggressively here and he had to have got something out of his season debut last week. (8) BIG RICH is in solid form and he should grab another slice here.
Race 9
(2) STONEBRIDGE PEACE is on a roll and is a good bet to extend her win streak, albeit at a short price. (7) LABATT HANOVER faced much tougher in his past two starts. He is the other one I will use in the late Pick 4 here, confident that those are the only two you need. (1) ROSE RUN RUDI was no match for the choice last time. A smaller share is likely here too. (6) LADY CATERINA rarely misses a check; consider for the bottom of vertical bets.
Race 10
(4) THINK ON IT set some solid splits last time and got wobbly only very late in the mile then got picked off. He can take these with a slightly more conservative approach. (5) R U MACHIN ME steps into conditioned races off the claim following an easy win. Driver Roy continues to run hot. He is the one to catch. (8) TEAM EDWARD will pass them all one of these times, but from this post he will likely be passing horses late after the winner has been decided. (7) A COOL CARD could slide into one of the lower High-5 rungs here passing some rivals late. (1) CIONA BRONACH picks up Henry here and he will likely trip him out and pick up a check. Consider at big odds for the exotics.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the NEW FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]