Mohawk: Friday 9/29 Analysis
Best Bet: ST JAMES GATE (5th)
Spot Play: KIWI FOCUS N (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4,8/2,6,7/3,5,6/2,3,5,7,9/4 = $27
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,5,7,9/4/5,7,8/1,3,6 = $45
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5/3,6,7/2,7/1,2 = $36
MEET STATS: 372 - 1117 / $2,061.80 BEST BETS: 49 - 107 / $171.50
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 107 / $213.00
Race 1
(1) JEWELONTHEBEACH moves inside after just missing in a very good comeback effort. She can score here if she beats a few of these off the gate. (4) NASTY RUMOUR is sharp and she should be a major contender here racing on or near the lead. (8) TEARFUL OF HAPPY can share here using a late charge. (6) SHEER TALENT faces some elders here following a perfect-trip Grassroots win. Smaller share predicted for her.
Race 2
(2) DUBIOUS CLAIM roared home in 52 3/5 to win at 63/1 last week. The short field should help him here; call to repeat. (7) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD was an impressive first-up winner last time and when he is on his game, he can probably produce an even quicker mile; using. (6) THIS IS MY SONG has never been better and he is another that can win this with the right trip. (5) BADSTORMANYPORT comes back quickly, but the top three here will be tough for him to fend off.
Race 3
(3) P L JILL was in excellent form prior to blowing up last time. If she stays flat here, she can handle these. (6) LEAN HANOVER exits a quick mile where he was passing some horses late. Toss him on multi-race tickets. (5) EXQUISITE GLIDE could go better here if he trips out instead of trying to lead and a change in strategy would be no surprise. (8) NORTHERN STORMONT got up late vs. easier, but a minor share is likely for him here.
Race 4
(2) IMSPORTY was under zero urging when he rolled by some winded leaders down the lane last time. He could get a similar pace setup here. (7) MAJOR HILL drops again and he should be heard from early, although he might face several challenges here if he leads. (3) SOUTHWIND MASIMO is another closer that might benefit from a swift early pace here. (9) DREAMY FELLA steps up after taking a new life's mark last time. He isn't out of this, but post could be an issue for him here.
Race 5
(4) ST JAMES GATE raced too good to lose last week and he is razor-sharp right now; top call. (3) LMC MASS OAK drops and gets a good post here; using. (2) WINDSONG MAGIC raced decently from the 10-hole last time when finishing just behind the choice. She should take a good share here. (7) SETANTA is always passing rivals late, but he usually isn't close enough to pass them all; small share predicted.
Race 6
(7) BALLERAT BOOMERANG produced an impressive stretch rally to win last week. I'll stick with him here while he is hot. (5) MOHAWK WARRIOR takes a big drop here and while he isn't the most reliable horse to put on top, he should contend vs. these. (8) DOVUTO HANOVER comes off a game win and he can never be tossed it seems when he is racing tough like that. (9) VELOCITY DRIVEN should rally for a slice here.
Race 7
(6) ODDS ON AMETHYST faces much easier here and perhaps he can get back on track vs. these. (3) IL SOGNO DREAM raced tough on the rim last week, but he was no match for a very strong winner. He rates highly here. (1) CUE HALL exits the top class and from the inside post he has a good shot in here. (5) FEARLESS MAN raced decently off the shelf and while he should be a pace presence, he will likely find some of these too tough.
Race 8
(2) KIWI FOCUS N drops back to a class where she should be tough racing on or near the front. (5) THEWAYULOOKTONIGHT comes off a life's-best score and she will be tough here right back. (3) WIGGLE IT J wasn't disgraced in the Preferred and she should get more aggressive here; using. (7) MS MAC N CHEESE drops and adds Lasix, but I'll play to beat her based solely on her weak win record this year. She has been in these kinds of spots before and failed.
Race 9
(6) FOREVER LIZA finds a good spot to get untracked here. Expect a more aggressive steer this time. (7) GIA DIAMOND was too far back last time, but she remains sharp and she could take this if she is in contention at the 3/4. (3) AINTSHEASWEETIE steps up off a sharp score, but, she's a contender here with the good late speed she has been producing. (10) NIPS BEACH GIRL will likely gun for the front again and she could stick around for a small slice.
Race 10
(7) MAKE SOME LUCK raced tough to be 2nd to a sharp winner last week. He can beat these with a decent trip. (2) MR CENSI has never been sharper. He is a must-use for me here. (5) MR WIGGLE PANTS is sure to try to control this race, but he may have trouble holding them all off late. (6) CHAMPAGNE PHIL should be closing late for a piece of this.
Race 11
(1) CAYO LOCO was motivated early last time, which could be a good sign that she is coming back to form. I'll give her the nod here. (2) MAXIM SEELSTER was narrowly beaten last time despite pacing home in 27 1/5. She should be tough in here. (9) MISS COCO LUCK is usually around the money at this level. She can share here. (3) POLKA DOT HANOVER has been racing well out of town. She might sneak onto the ticket at a price here. (5) KAYS SHADOW is worth a look coming off a break and facing easier.
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