Mohawk: Friday 9/1 Analysis
Best Bet: SHOWER PLAY (5th)
Spot Play: AMERICAN SARA (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2/5,7/2,4,6/2,6,7/5 = $7.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,6,7/5/2,7,9/1,2,4,11 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 4,5,7/4,11/4,6,7/2,3 = $36
MEET STATS: 312 - 904 / $1,740.70 BEST BETS: 40 - 88 / $141.60
SPOT PLAYS: 33 - 87 / $191.30
Race 1
(2) NEON MOON was picked off late last time, but that was a quick mile and she has a good chance to bounce back here. (1) LADY BUBBLES has won three straight times in Grassroots company and she appears to be the one to beat here. (8) RENDEZVOUS HANOVER is usually close in these races, she just needs a slightly easier trip. (9) SAINTSBURY LASS changed hands after her last start and she debuts for trainer Budd here, who can turn one around in a hurry; consider for exotics.
Race 2
(5) YOU KNOW YOU DO has shown he is the fastest colt in here, but he is coming off a break; slight nod. (7) ALARM DETECTOR has done nothing wrong so far and he could prove a tough foe for the choice here. (2) CANTABERNET has never missed the board. He should make the ticket here again. (6) WINNING AMERICAN is another who consistently hits the ticket and he should share here.
Race 3
(2) PERFETTO has shown promise in both starts and he should be tough in here. (6) CRUISING IN STYLE should like a return to a bigger track and he is a speed threat here. (4) NIGHT RHYTHM goes for top connections and he is a threat here and could be a good price. (3) LEVITATION has gait issues but he will be a factor if he stays trotting.
Race 4
(6) AMERICAN SARA faces easier here after taking on the best New York sires stakes fillies in her last two; top call. (2) PRETTY HOT steps up off a loss, but she is sharp and dangerous. (7) SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR gets Jamieson back and she has an upset chance here. (3) LIGHTS GO OUT steps up off a win, but she missed a race due to sickness; smaller share predicted for her.
Race 5
(5) SHOWER PLAY produced a wicked stretch rally last time and she is the one to knock off here; top call. (9) PRETISSIMO almost lasted despite getting parked a long way. She is in with a good chance here. (3) SUNDAY AFTERNOON gets a big post improvement and she should be heard from here. (1) ASHLEES SPORT is another that can improve racing from a better post.
Race 6
(7) DARLINONTHEBEACH was passively driven last week and rallied only for a small share. Gingras takes over here which means it's “go” time. (9) L A DELIGHT drops and she is getting closer; using. (2) KIWI FOCUS N is so sharp right now that she should share despite the class rise. (8) BOURBON SEELSTER is also sharp and she could hit the ticket despite jumping in class.
Race 7
(4) HAMMERING HALEY improved sharply last time and she could take these at a price here. (2) DUCHESS DOLLY is the one to beat coming off three straight wins; using. (1) MUSKOKA DELIGHT can ride a decent trip to a share here. (11) AZURE SEELSTER faces easier here and she could work out a good trip starting behind Muskoka Delight.
Race 8
(5) MISTY DE VIE closed with a wicked rush to easily pass them all last week. I'll give her the call to repeat here. (7) ROCKN OPIUM improved last time so she may be cycling back to her best form now. (4) LETS HAVEA PARTY was picked off late by the choice after fighting off some challengers. Toss her in the late Pick 4. (6) NASTY RUMOUR has found non-winners of three company tougher. She could make the bottom of the Tri or Super here.
Race 9
(4) DREAM TOGETHER was best last week, but the driver's decision to stay in the pocket on the far turn cost her the win. She is sharp and dangerous now and I will give her the call to upset (11) ARIANA G - who is obviously best, but may have issues with the 11-hole. (3) BLINDED BY LINDY is in great form and she can take a share here. (9) WINTER SWEET FROST has come back to her best form, but post 9 will be a challenge here; small share predicted.
Race 10
(4) NEXT THING SMOKEN should be tough to beat here off the Auciello claim. (6) THINK AGAIN nailed the choice on August 15th when racing out of the pocket. That possibility exists here again. (7) LISVINNE must be feeling good judging by his 25 4/5 kicker last time, although he may get overbet off that burst of speed. (2) HARTATTACK can ride a good trip to a small share.
Race 11
(3) NINETTE B showed nothing vs. the very tough Kiwi Focus N last time, but from a good post here, she should get an aggressive steer this time with Gingras named; slight nod. (2) HOT SPOT HANOVER exits the same highly-rated race and she can also improve sharply here. (6) BAD NIGHT MARE is in good form, but she was handled by the choice two back. She needs a trip to win here, but she isn't impossible. (8) REGAL LUCK should improve on the class drop. (4) ROYAL ENGAGEMENT continues to race well and she can hit the ticket here.
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