Mohawk: Friday 7/21 Analysis
Best Bet: WIGGLE IT J (4th)
Spot Play: SHEWEARSTHEPANTS (2nd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 2,4,7,9/3,4/2,3,4,6,7/10/1,3,7,9 = $32
EARLY PICK 4: 10/1,3,7,9/2,4,6,7/1,3,4 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 7,9/2,7,8/3,5/2,4,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 202 - 626 / $1,100.20 BEST BETS: 26 - 62 / $95.90
SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 62 / $145.20
Race 1
(4) LADY BUBBLES closed strongly for 2nd to a rival that was winning for the second time in two starts. She has a good chance in here with that foe gone. (2) SHOWER PLAY is perfect so far and she paced a sharp back 1/2 in her debut at Georgian. She is probably the one to beat here. (9) BOOK THE BET may hold the most early speed here and if she can clear right away or land in the pocket, she is in with a chance. She also picks up the leading driver here. (7) SHADOWOFHERSMILE is also worth a look off a decent debut in Grassroots company at Georgian.
Race 2
(4) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS has shown herself to be one of the gamest racehorses on the grounds recently. She will be tough to overhaul here looking for her 4th straight win. (3) FADING SHADOW gets Henry for a return drive here and if he sent her much harder off the gate it would not be a surprise. She has an upset chance if put into this race early. (1) LOTUS SEELSTER will take action here based on the connections, but her 1 for 22 record doesn't inspire; smaller share predicted. (6) ROSE RUN SAMANTHA should pass some of these late. Consider here for the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 3
(4) WRITE ME A SONG was a decent 2nd in her debut at Georgian and she gets a positive driver change here. She is one of many that can win this; slight nod. (6) LAST SYMPHONY was in the fastest race of any of these in her debut and she fared okay. She will likely be a speed threat here. (7) SUNDAY AFTERNOON closed a good gap in her debut and interestingly Ouellette - who rarely drives anymore - is named. She has the look of a contender. (3) BREEZY - a $32K Harrisburg buy - hinted at some ability in her second qualifier. She is another to consider in a wide-open race.
Race 4
(10) WIGGLE IT J drops to a spot where she can be the boss. Expect Cullen to blast here and try to bottom out the field. (5) ART ANGEL BABY drops one level and is another that will likely be asked for more speed early making his 2nd start off the claim for Montini. (4) TOP ROYAL is in sensational form shipping in and she can take more air than just about any other horse you will see race; using. (6) BAROCKEY is unpredictable, but capable at this level. Your call.
Race 5
(7) CAMPASSION was racing near the front in a wildly fast OSS Gold race at Georgian and she understandably tired. She has a much better chance here in a race which will likely go there seconds slower. (3) RAVEN SEELSTER showed dramatic improvement in her 2nd start. She should contend here from close range. (1) MUSKOKA MOONLIGHT gets Filion here following an even debut; using. (9) DUCHESS DOLLY has raced against the same tough winner twice in a row. She should improve here and she will be a price.
Race 6
(4) C MARY won last time she raced in a Grassroots race with Christoforou driving. She fits well here; perhaps history repeats. (2) KLOOF STREET is another that fits well with this group and she should be more forwardly-placed early; using. (7) SANPPY DRESSER races better from off the pace. She should be closing stoutly here for at least a slice. (6) BID WRITER dodges the very tough American Sara here and she could improve sharply in this field. Toss her on wider Pick 4 tickets.
Race 7
(1) LOVE KILLS ships in off a good opener and she is sent out by a trainer who typically sends everything ready; top call. (4) LADY EVERLONG had a decent debut from an outer post. She looks like one of the top contenders here. (3) HAMMERING HALEY has the speed to contend too, in another race where we don't have much to go on as bettors. (7) ENCHANTED EVA flashed good speed from an outer post at Georgian. She's another in with a decent chance here.
Race 8
(7) BEDROOMCONFESSIONS gutted out a win a class lower last week, but she had been off for five weeks and the expectation is that she will be a lot sharper here coming back in a week; top call. (9) BERNADETTE was picked off late by a fellow class dropper last week. She rates highly in here. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE continues to race hard but can't seem to get there; small share again predicted. (2) WANDA BAYAMA has shipped in, changed barns and won here before. She wouldn't be the worst flyer to take on this card.
Race 9
(8) STELLENBOSCH gets back to a big track in a field where she should be prominent from the outset; top call. (2) YOUVEGOTAWAYWITHME escaped late then flew past the leader last week. That was a bit of a lucky trip, but also a big improvement and a new life's mark. I'll use her in the late Pick 4. (7) OUT OF SIGHT is getting closer and she could trip out racing near the front here; using. (5) P L KAHLUAA would be tough here if she could reproduce her effort from two races back, but that's hard to predict with her coming off a vet scratch.
Race 10
(3) L A DELIGHT looks ready for a good try in her season's debut. She did win in her opener last year off slower qualifiers; nod. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES has won a third of her starts the past two seasons. She's one that is always around the money that is the best alternative if you are trying to beat the choice here. (1) P L HURRICANE should trip out near the front and stay for a share. (2) EXHILARATED steps back up off a win, but she can pass a few of these down the lane and make the ticket.
Race 11
(7) ASKMYSECRETARY was a powerful winner at Georgian following a lackluster debut; call to repeat. (2) SHADOW WORLD looks like the main threat and she will most likely be the one to catch here. (4) NEON MOON paced a good qualifying mile on July 7th. If she is over her gait issues, she can contend here. (6) ASHLEES SPORT should improve sharply here dropping out of OSS Gold action.
Race 12
(7) BORDER CONTROL A takes a big class drop here and he should be tough to beat. (5) TOOT TOOT N qualified nicely for his North American debut. He is in with a good shot racing from close range. (4) SHADOW PLACE fits well in this class and moving to a better post helps his chances greatly. (2) MR CENSI figures to take a small share as has been his custom most of this year. (3) BUGGER BRUISER is another that finished on the fringes frequently that should make the High 5 ticket.
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