Mohawk: Friday 7/14 Analysis
Best Bet: WRANGLER MAGIC (9th)
Spot Play: TONY SOPRANO (5th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,4,7/5/2,4,5/6,7,9/1,8 = $18
EARLY PICK 4: 6,7,9/1,8/3,5,10/3,6 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,6/4,5,6,9/5/1,3,4,6,7 = $40
MEET STATS: 189 - 585 / $1030.60 BEST BETS: 25 - 58 / $92.80
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 58 / $137.30
Race 1
(3) WIGGLE IT J should be put into action early here facing mostly easier; slight nod. (1) EXHILARATED also drops and she too will likely be more forwardly-placed than what you might expect looking at the program; using. (7) FOREVER LIZA will be the beneficiary if there is any early or mid-race battling, but the short field shrinks that possibility. (4) WITCH DALI has been facing much better, but the way she stopped in the stretch last time is concerning. She should be on or near the front early. It's hard to predict if she will still be there at the wire.
Race 2
(5) ALEXIS FAITH was an impressive winner of her debut and she looks good to repeat here, likely at another short price. (4) SAVE YOUR BREATH is a full-sister to several winners and she likely has much more to offer than what she showed in her lone qualifier. (3) MRS DRAGONFIRE is another who should have more speed than what you see on the program; consider for exactas and tris. (6) PROMISE BLUE CHIP comes off an even debut mile at Grand River. She can make the super here with slight improvement.
Race 3
(4) OUR HOT MAJORETTE makes her third start back from a vet scratch and I expect that she will be heading for the front early in what appears to be a paceless race; top call. (2) MS MAC N CHEESE's best trip is in the pocket and there's a good chance she'll get that here. (5) DAZZLING ROCKETTE moves to the middle of the gate which should put her in better position to strike turning for home here. (3) HOT SPOT HANOVER steps up off a dominant win, but some of these are considerably tougher.
Race 4
(9) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS has raced great for several weeks using a variety of styles. She has already proven she can win from the outermost post on more than one occasion; top call. (7) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW just failed to hold the choice off last time, but she has now missed a week while the choice won another race since. She looks like the main threat nevertheless. (6) ROSE RUN SAMANTHA was used hard early last time and she understandably stopped late. She adds Lasix here and is worth a look at a price. (4) C MARY rarely missed the ticket; use her underneath.
Race 5
(1) TONY SOPRANO was beaten by two rivals last time that would likely take this group easily. On that frame of reference, I will give him the nod here. (8) DOMITIAN HALL raced much better in his last two and he should offer some late Pick 4 value here; using. (4) CHARLIE IS A JOKER steps up off a win, which means he is likely to take only a small share here based on history. (3) ROYAL CHARM continues to burn money every start and she is bound to wake up soon and pop for a win. When that will occur is the big question.
Race 6
(5) BEDROOMCONFESSIONS takes a big class plunge here, but she has also missed five weeks. She should beat these if she is sharp enough, but the time off is concerning. (10) REGAL LUCK drops a level and she is capable in here if she is put into the race early enough. (3) LIGHTS GO OUT is sharp and should be passing a few of these late. She isn't the worst option in here and she should be a good price. (1) DAWN SHOOTER is improved but the step up here likely means a smaller share is her ceiling this time.
Race 7
(3) HILL OF A COLT raced well last time but he was nailed by a rival that shot up the pylons late. He could be even sharper here returning in 7 days; slight nod. (6) TRY TRY AGAIN is impossible to leave off Pick 4 tickets going for his 6th straight to start his career, but none of them win forever and the choice should give him a stern test here. (4) CROWN CLASSIC can pick up some pieces late here and land in the Tri. (2) TYCOON SEELSTER is worth a look for the exotics dropping out of sires stakes company in a race where he had a tough trip.
Race 8
(6) AMERICAN SARA looks for her 4th straight facing several sires stakes types who no doubt have bigger races coming up. She should be tough in here. (9) FUTURE HEADLINES comes off a sharp win in fast time at Grand River and if she is sent early here, she should be right there vs. these. (5) WINDY SPORT adds Lasix here which could explain her disappointing string of races in June; using. (4) AINT THREE OK is capable vs. these on her best day, but she would need to wake up and produce a much better effort.
Race 9
(5) WRANGLER MAGIC is likely too good for these right now; top call. (4) P L HURRICANE can complete the exacta if she is sent hard for the pocket from the outset. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES was picked off right on the line last week. While she is always a threat, the choice handled her easily last time they met. (2) REQUEST FOR PAROLE is never off the board it seems. She should share again here.
Race 10
(3) CASE DISMISSED had a long trip last time that didn't work out. Coming back in 7 days here she should be sharper and perhaps she can find some live flow. (7) NAUGHTY LADY B is in good form and she finished ahead of the choice last time. She fits well here. (1) BIG TSUNAMI should be a speed threat again, but she need to finish better than she did last time. (6) CAYO LOCO has improving form and she is another in with a decent shot here. (4) BRITTLE steps up off a race in which she took a new lifetime mark, but these should be much tougher.
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