Mohawk: Friday 6/16 Analysis
Best Bet: BUTTERMILK HANOVER (10th)
Spot Play: SHEZAREALDEAL (6th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 2,6/2,5/2,3,5,6/3,5,6/7,8,9 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,6/7,8,9/1,4/4,5,7 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 4,5,7/3,4/5,7/2,4,10 = $36
MEET STATS: 125 - 397 / $703.20 BEST BETS: 17 - 38 / $64.70
SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 38 / $89.50
Race 1
(6) MIGHTY NICKY has never been better, having taken a new life's mark in this class last time; call to repeat. (2) FREE WILLY HANOVER was game in defeat in a much-improved effort last week. He is the main danger to the choice. (4) PINK PISTOL was drubbed by the best older trotting mares on the continent last time. She should wake up with a much better try here. (3) SETANTA is a good one to use on the bottom of the exotics here.
Race 2
(2) PAULY WALLY should be much closer early here starting from the inside. He could go off at a good price, too, facing some stakes colts; slight nod. (5) DEO GALILEO was 2nd to the same colt three times straight in New Jersey, and that rival was bet down to five cents on the dollar in every one of those starts. He should appreciate dodging that tough foe here. (6) BETTORS DREAM faced some tough ones last year and although he is likely gearing up for some stakes action here, he could rally for a slice. (3) CALVIN K raced well in his season opener at London on a night where closers were up against it. He should be a factor here, but keep in mind he has sires stakes engagements in his sights.
Race 3
(6) LYONS RIVER PRIDE appears to be one of few that will be sent for the lead off the gate here. Facing easier, she projects to get a winning trip here. (3) REQUEST FOR PAROLE also drops and she is always in the thick of things; using. (2) YARIS BAYAMA is fresh and sharp, but facing elders here, she may not get the trip she needs as she eyes bigger purses vs. her own age group. (5) STYLISH BEACHWHERE was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown last week. This time, she is more likely to finish on the fringes.
Race 4
(6) DUDESALADY was a narrow loser two back when she was involved in some rough racing down the stretch then she was thrown to the wolves, so to speak, last week when trying the Fan Hanover elimination. She fits much better here; nod. (3) AMERICAN SARA exits the same race as the choice where she finished just behind her. She too should fare much better here. (5) WINDY SPORT has disappointed in her last two, but she does have the ability to take this out and she may be a good price here. (4) HOPE AND FAITH is in solid form and she never gets bet; consider for exotics.
Race 5
(9) FEARLESS MAN is sharp now and he could take these a long way on the class drop if Zeron blasts him to the front off the gate. (7) CASH FOR GOLD comes off a sharp effort in the top class and he figures here, but he may get overbet. (8) FINISH LINE is another that drops from the Preferred class that is hard to leave off multi-race tickets here. (4) EXEMPLAR is always on the ticket it seems. Another minor share is likely for him here.
Race 6
(4) SHEZAREALDEAL drops back to the class she last won in on May 27th. Roy should have her winging early here. (1) MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS also won when she last raced in this class and she should be a square price here off her last couple of chart lines; using. (2) GIA DIAMOND fits this class well and she is another to consider for Pick 4 tickets. (3) CASE DISMISSED raced as well as she ever has last time, but could only get third money. A smaller slice seems likely here, too.
Race 7
(5) BATOUTAHILL tried it first up vs. some very tough mares last time and she predictably stopped late. Her price should be good here and she will likely revert to a more effective style racing in the flow; top call. (4) DEEP IMPACT was impressive winning his season debut and he should be tough here right back. (7) HONOR ABOVE ALL fits well here and he gets Filion. Toss him in your Pick 4 bets. (3) SAFEKEEPING blew up well before the start last time when bet off the board. She is capable if flat, but what price would you take off that last line?
Race 8
(4) KAYS SHADOW was nailed right on the line last week after opening up what looked like a safe lead. She is sharp now and doesn't need the lead to win. Perhaps a slightly different trip gets it done for her here. (3) BAROCKEY drops to a level where she should be major player, but she has also missed three weeks; mixed signals. (5) FASHION ROCKER was passed late by the pocket-sitter who slipped up the inside down the lane. Roy sticks here; she should share. (1) TRUE REFLECTION rarely wins but she should contend for at least a slice here.
Race 9
(5) IL SOGNO DREAM raced much better last week and he gets another good post to work from here; top call. (7) WHISKEY TAX wasn't far behind the choice last time and he should be ready to fire his best shot soon. He's the other one that you need on Pick 4 tickets. (4) CATCH THE DREAM steps back up, but his strong late kick should be respected in this short field. (2) MISTER HERBIE should get a decent trip near the front here. He has upset possibilities.
Race 10
(2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER gets trainer and driver changes here following a long and impossible trip last time out. I'll give her a slight nod based on the changes. (4) JUST BLITZED faces much easier here. She should be a major player vs. these. (10) MISS COCO LUCK also faces easier than she has been and she will likely be put into the race early. (3) MICHELLES DEUCE is worth a look off the Corey Johnson claim, despite the class rise here. (1) YOUR MY SECRET always finishes on the fringes at this level. That trend should continue here.
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