Mohawk: Friday 5/5 Analysis
Best Bet: LET EM BOUNCE (3rd)
Spot Play: WILLYORWONTHE (8th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6,7/1,2,3,4/3,4,6/1,7,8/1,8 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,7,8/1,8/5,7,9/8,9 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 8,9/2,5,7,8/4,7/4,7,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 43 - 120 / $254.90 BEST BETS: 5 - 12 / $23.10
SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 12 / $23.70
Race 1
(1) CLEAR IDEA left hard and finished well when beaten only by a sharp repeat winner last time. She could work out a nice covered trip from this post; slight nod in a tricky opener. (7) WAY BETTOR was thwarted by a slow pace last time yet she still closed well. She should be much closer vs. these. (6) MANHATTAN PLAY tried to blast last time, but there were too may leavers. She could get a better trip on or near the lead here at a square price. (8) SHEER TALENT had a good record last year and her qualifier is probably better than it looks on paper due to the slow early fractions; consider.
Race 2
(3) WIGGLE IT J had nowhere to go in the lane two starts back, but she left no doubt last week in pacing to an impressive front-end score. The step up isn't that great; I'll stick with her. (1) MAXIM SEELSTER couldn't keep pace with the sharp winner late in the mile last week, but she does rate highly in here; using. (2) HOT SPOT HANOVER drops and gets driver Roy. Expect a wake up effort. (4) BET YA also drops to a level where she fits better and she is another that could win this.
Race 3
(6) LET EM BOUNCE as expected fared much better in a conditioned claimer last week when racing off the claim. These aren't much tougher; call to repeat. (3) E L WILD SPIRIT broke while on the move last week. He drops a level and he should be dangerous if he stays pacing. (4) MAMMOTH JACK is in great form and driver Young has been hot lately; using. (5) ROYAL MACHERY seems destined for another smaller share here.
Race 4
(8) WHO DOESNT and (7) JAKE LOEWEN have both been racing against much better recently. I'll give the nod to the former, who is a more frequent winner, but both are capable in this class. (1) BUGGER BRUISER went a tough trip Monday night from the worst post. If there is one that will knock off the two above, he's it. (10) LETS WAIT AND SEE is capable of rallying for a piece at what should be a big price.
Race 5
(1) SWEET ROYALTY was visibly motoring in the final 1/16th of a mile last week, now he comes up tagged here. This is a good spot for him to notch his first victory of 2017. (8) MEGO MOSS has hit his best stride after a long winless drought and he will have to be caught. (9) THE POWER OF MANY race well off the Budd claim despite being out a long way. She could take this if she can work out a better trip. (10) GIRL DRAMA is hot at the moment, but she would likely have to pass them all to extend her win streak; smaller share predicted.
Race 6
(9) KAYS SHADOW steps up off a good effort and while she draws poorly again, she is capable vs. these if she leaves a bit better. (5) A PLUS should get an aggressive steer here and she is dangerous if she gets positioned near the front early. (7) ONYOURMARKNATAVA steps up off two decent efforts for a trainer that has landed many bombs in recent years; beware. (1) KATIES BEACH should improve with the post position improvement here.
Race 7
(8) ROSELILY had a bump in the road last time, perhaps disliking the off going. She should get back on track here. (9) DANCING SHADOWS K never races poorly and she is one to keep on Pick 4 tickets because if she gets the right trip, she is likely to capitalize. (6) FUTURE HEADLINES was one of the better rookie filly pacers last year, but her lone qualifier suggests she may need this start. (5) EVERY TIME was a decent 2nd to a sharp winner last week. She isn't out of this.
Race 8
(7) WILLYORWONTHE gets his favorite driver back here and he should be a big price; upset special. (5) MODEST PRINCE qualified sharply with new driver Hudon in the bike. He may have to be caught if he uses similar strategy here. (8) LINDYS TRU GRIT flew home in his qualifier, but I wonder if he will be over bet off that burst; using in the Pick 4 but trying to beat if a low price. (2) RAMAS LAST SON should be more prominent with the class drop here. This is a race where several could win.
Race 9
(4) SING LIKE AN ANGEL went a big trip uncovered racing first-over last week and she still almost got there. A slightly better trip gets the job done here. (7) MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS takes a big drop here and Davis Jr. should be sending her early; using. (6) YOUR MY SECRET will get there one of these week when the flow goes her way; using. (9) SHEZAREALDEAL is another class dropper to consider here.
Race 10
(10) CALL ME MAYBE gamely dug in late to hold on last week. This is the best class for her and her price will likely be better racing from the outermost post. I'll stick with her. (4) CASE DISMISSED couldn't chase down the choice in a game effort. She rates highly here and has post position advantage on the choice. (7) NOMATTERWHEN is worth considering off the claim for a trainer that has been hot recently. (9) RUNWAY MODEL has finished in the top three 69% of the time in the past two seasons. She is a good one to use on the bottom. (1) OLIVIAS WAY should take a smaller share at a minimum starting from the inside.
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