Modern Medicine should get players' attention

Any experienced handicapper has seen the situation before and understands the danger: A horse comes back from a layoff and runs the best race of his life. Next time out, there is only one way to go – down.

Modern Medicine, on the face of things, looks like just such a horse in the featured seventh of eight races Thursday at Fair Grounds.

On Dec. 1, at odds of 7-1, Modern Medicine stalked, pounced, took over, and scored, beating second-level allowance horses and $40,000 claimers by a length while clocking a good 1:09.84 for six furlongs on dirt. The raw time translated to an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, a career best.

The guess, on the face of things again, would be that Modern Medicine regresses to his career mean Thursday. But that guess ignores several mitigating factors, and there are ample reasons to guess that Modern Medicine will win again.

First, veteran trainer Richie Scherer seems keenly aware that his horse could bounce and has worked Modern Medicine accordingly. The 5-year-old gelding has been given three published breezes since his Dec. 1 win, and they have ranged from slow to slower.

Comeback winners in allowance races, in addition to being asked to hold their form after a strong effort, face the added challenge of climbing the class ladder. Not Modern Medicine. Scherer ran him under the $40,000 claiming option last time, and Modern Medicine retained his eligibility to a second-level allowance. He’s not entered to be claimed Thursday either.

Here’s another thing: That last-out win might not have been such an outlier as first appears. Modern Medicine has made 13 starts, but only two have been dirt sprints: a six-length Hawthorne maiden win that yielded an 82 Beyer and the Dec. 1 race.

Modern Medicine and Miguel Mena, who comes off an excellent week at Fair Grounds, also could be in line for a dream trip. Lewys Vaporizer and Exodus should be flying on the front end, with I’m a Lawman close in tow. Pace pressers Speightsong and Wildwood Dancer will attack on the turn if the tempo flags. The race’s other closers, Pulling G’s and Salengo, have stale contending form but nothing as appealing more recently.

Modern Medicine is listed at 4-1 on the track’s morning line. If he goes postward at a similar price, ignore the warning signs and take the Medicine.