Mike Welsch's Gulfstream Park analysis for Sunday, April 12, 2020

By Mike Welsch

1. Into Fancy

2. Couple of Nikkis

3. Grimpante

INTO FANCY a new face sporting top J/T connections debuting in a relatively weak spot. First foal out of a mare who did win on grass out of a top turf sire. Hasn't missed a beat in the a.m. over the last six weeks. COUPLE OF NIKKIS dropped off relatively soft pace, had no kick late in a key race from which 2 of the 3 horses who have since returned have won their next starts. Returns to level at which she missed a nose in early January. GRIMPANTE ran evenly in bow, also getting some class relief with meet's hottest jock taking the call.

1. Luckytobeinamerica

2. Followhisfootsteps

3. Gran Causeway

LUCKYTOBEINAMERICA trying dirt for first time in quite a while but has worked well over the surface and could be primed for big effort dropping down to this relatively soft N3L claiming spot. FOLLOWHISFOOTSTEPS has not had the luckiest of trips in each of his last couple of starts. A beaten favorite when failing to show best early foot last time. Expect to see him much more forwardly placed this time around. GRAN CAUSEWAY broke slow, rushed, held reasonably well while showing marked improvement in latest. Could be the sleeper if away cleanly today.

1. Whiskey Sunrise

2. Victory Town

3. Chinomadito

WHISKEY SUNRISE flashed big speed only to get nailed late by Absolut Grit in lone try at 2, the latter going on to be multiple SP last season. Returns off series of mostly short but quick works, could be long gone with these. VICTORY TOWN comes off best yet switching to dirt, strictly one to fear with another forward move. CHINOMADITO just missed last time in career best effort. Improving sort can hang around for a slice once again.

1. Guazza

2. Pilot Episode

3. The Girl Herself

GUAZZA chased fast pace, faded late in promising debut and like the turn back to six furlongs at second asking. Well bred filly by Tapit and a half to among others Shared Belief. PILOT EPISODE gets Lasix for the first time after chasing speedy Bourne to no avail while showing improvement at second asking. Thinking third could be the charm if preferred one falters. THE GIRL HERSELF debuts off some decent a.m. trial. Another well bred filly by American Pharoah and kin to G1 winner Circular Quay. Nikki and Papa finally dropping in with maidens after being totally over-matched in both previous starts. Has some ability, must break cleaner than the first two times.

1. Blue Magic

2. Speed Star

3. Fiber Optic

BLUE MAGIC hard to fault in her present form but as always, stretch running mare will need some racing luck considering her running style at this distance. SPEED STAR no match for preferred choice in their previous encounter, finds herself up against that one again despite the big price drop. FIBER OPTIC showed impressive and improved speed last time withstanding wicked fast pace scenario to beat lesser. Should find herself with or perhaps even on the lead again today with Jaramillo taking call but stepping well up against open company this time around.

1. Mylastfirstkiss

2. Primacy

3. Risk Model

MYLASTFIRSTKISS strictly a pace play here as she looks like the lone speed unless one of the new faces has some gas. Has been on the fringes with same kind in several previous tries this winter. PRIMACY the logical choice off promising bow when overcoming slow start to just fail albeit in a race that provided the perfect pace set up. Still one to fear with any improvement today. RISK MODEL another member of potent Chad Brown stable who ran well despite some trouble at the start in her debut and with the advantage of a race at the distance under her belt. Prairie Wings second best behind Fashion Babe who flattered effort returning to beat N1X company in her next start.

1. Pango

2. Combination

3. Desert General

PANGO aggressively spotted off the recent claim while turning back to six furlongs for the first time in nearly a year. Should sit good stalking trip behind speed of Smoke 'n' Gloat and Ray'swarrior. COMBINATION certainly hard to fault in his current form and another offered up for $8K today. DESERT GENERAL a very popular item at claim box lately and a hanging sort in all recent tries. Still hard to leave out of the number somewhere.

1. Sir Chubby

2. Dyn

3. Budget Buster

SIR CHUBBY ran well with addition of blinkers while exiting near one year hiatus and given ample time to recuperate from the effort. Expecting best yet from this guy today. DYN could be worth a look making a surface change and dropping to selling ranks for first time. By decent enough grass sire and with one winning sib in family. BUDGET BUSTER drops off series of decent showings vs. better while not having the best of trips in last pair.

1. Cory Gal

2. Merseyside

3. How Sweep It Is

CORY GAL comes off best yet and with the speed to take another if aggressively handled to get the drop on the other pace threats in this lineup. MERSEYSIDE no match for undefeated, highly regarded Up in Smoke last time but while easily best of the others. Strictly one to fear. HOW SWEEP IT IS in top form of late and another who figures forwardly placed.

1. Zippy

2. Machiavelli

3. Devoted Kitten

ZIPPY well drawn inside off near miss behind Belgrano, who tripped out perfectly to get the victory under similar conditions 16 days earlier. Gets shaky nod in wide open bunch. MACHIAVELLI nicely spotted for this price after defeating higher level N2L's last time. DEVOTED KITTEN outlasted preferred choice behind Belgrano in a game effort when contesting all the pace before dropping tough decision. Must not bounce off the effort returning on relatively short rest.

1. Baccarat Fashion

2. Freudian Finish

3. Ms Meshak

BACCARAT FASHION stays put off the claim for team Maker after getting hung three wide, failing to kick on dropping back to allowance ranks for first time since the fall. Winner flattered effort easily defeating same kind last week. FREUDIAN FINISH continues to improve and with plenty of speed from that outside box but could face early pace pressure from Varanasi and or Guacamole. MS MESHAK knocking on door with this kind both turf and dirt the last couple of months but winless since capturing overnight state bred stakes in July.

1. Blazing Desire

2. I'm More Ready

3. Keepsakekitten

As usual, many ways to go in the nightcap with the most logical being class dropping BLAZING DESIRE albeit off a couple of beaten favorite performances vs. better. I'M MORE READY loses the blinkers and also getting significant class relief off what was still a career best Beyer effort last time. KEEPSAKEKITTEN posted back to back victories before being haltered away from Joseph stable last out. Facing stronger on the raise for new connections.