Mike Welsch's Belmont Stakes analysis
There are two ways to approach this year’s Belmont Stakes from a wagering standpoint – concede the race to odds-on favorite Exaggerator and look for some value underneath in the gimmicks, or take a shot to beat the Preakness winner in search of a big payday. Win or lose, the latter seems like the more sensible approach.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS is one of probably a half-dozen options for those seeking to beat the favorite. He trained as well as anybody leading up to the Kentucky Derby, finishing full of run to be fifth after encountering early trouble, and reports out of Churchill Downs indicate that he’s doing just as well, if not better, coming into the Belmont.
STRADIVARI, a very promising colt with a bright future, turned in a credible effort while making his stakes debut in the Preakness and figures to move forward from the experience. He should sit a nice stalking trip and get first run over former stablemate Gettysburg, who now figures to set the pace. The big question is whether Stradivari will stay 12 furlongs.
I was not sold on GOVERNOR MALIBU until getting to Belmont Park last week, but he seems to be improving training up to the race. While trainer Christophe Clement may not have another Tonalist on his hands, he may not need one to take down a major share of this year’s Belmont purse.
LANI has made big strides since I first saw him training up to the Derby, and if nothing else, he should be the fittest horse in the field, which counts for something in a race where the added distance can be a great equalizer. He looks capable of grabbing a share of the gimmicks at a square price.
Exaggerator is obviously the horse to beat, and overall, he’s had a pretty good 10 days since arriving at Belmont, even though he did give some mixed signals in his final work Tuesday. Is he as good on a fast track as a wet one, and can he stay 12 furlongs? Just enough question marks not to accept the inevitable short price.
Creator trained great prior to the Derby, never got to run his race after getting stopped on the final turn, and is certainly deserving of a mulligan at double-digit odds.
Cherry Wine is on the improve and should love the added distance, considering his bloodlines. He is another one who is hard to ignore with this group.