Mike Welsch's 2019 Preakness analysis

Like trainer Mark Casse, I was hoping War of Will did not draw the rail again for the Preakness, although obviously not for the same reasons. The prevailing thought was that War of Will and IMPROBABLE are the two best horses in this field, with the former likely to offer a little more betting value and with a very legitimate chance of defeating the likely favorite – if he did not draw down inside again.

Unfortunately, he did, leaving Improbable as the preferred choice. Although he did not have as much excuse as many others in the Derby, Improbable didn’t have a perfectly clean run either, and the slight turnback in distance should be to his advantage Saturday. I believed he was the best horse heading into the Derby, following the scratch of Omaha Beach, and feel he is the best of this bunch as well.

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WAR OF WILL’s troubles in the Derby were there for all to see, and his final price may reflect all that on Saturday. I had the notion prior to the Derby that he might be in need of a race, on the assumption he got very little in the way of conditioning from the Louisiana Derby and was essentially running 1 1/4 miles off an 11-week layoff. Thus, he should be sitting on an improved try on Preakness Day. But after watching the Derby, it also appeared War of Will might just not be comfortable running down inside and behind horses, hence the wish for an outside draw on Saturday. It will be interesting to see what strategy Casse and jockey Tyler Gaffalione employ from the rail if they agree with that notion.

OWENDALE may have benefitted from an outside flow to the racetrack at Keeneland when winning the Lexington, but it’s hard to discount his big effort that day too much, and he appears to have come out of the race as good as, if not better, than off that latest work at Churchill Downs. Looks best of the new faces and a very live “longshot” in this field.

BOURBON WAR did not train into the Florida Derby nearly as well as he had prior to the Fountain of Youth, and then he had little chance anyway considering the flow of a race that has proven to be a key one to this point. Adds blinkers to the equipment, and from the looks of some of his latest breezes, he seems ready to step forward with a much-improved performance.

Signalman trained very well at Churchill Downs in the weeks leading up to the Derby and seems to be doing just as well since then. Another who might be worth tossing in for at least a minor share at a decent price.