Mike Welsch's 2019 Kentucky Derby analysis

Omaha Beach and Improbable separated themselves from the rest of the field in the Arkansas Derby and in so doing appeared to also have separated themselves slightly from the well-matched group of 3-year-olds assembling to decide this year’s Derby.

OMAHA BEACH has continued to improve on a regular basis since winning his maiden three months ago, and he has made a monstrous impression since shipping to Kentucky to continue final preparations for the Derby. He turned in a huge final move at Churchill last weekend, is tactical enough to sit the perfect trip drawn outside what appears to be the likely speed in this lineup, and he’ll obviously move up even further if getting another wet track to work with Saturday, which seemed likely at press time.

IMPROBABLE gave Omaha Beach a good battle in Arkansas, despite behaving badly at the gate prior to the race. The blinkers have come off for the rematch, and he, too, looked awesome in his lone local work, galloping out with long, powerful strides that suggest an even bigger effort could be forthcoming.

Nobody has trained any better over the last several weeks at Churchill than BY MY STANDARDS, another who has come a long way in a short period of time. He will have to make a big leap forward once more to catch up to the top pair from a figures standpoint, but his recent work pattern is giving every indication he’s ready to make that kind of move if able to work out a trip from what could be a tricky post position draw.

CODE OF HONOR showed signs of brilliance at 2 and again with his big effort when taking advantage of the rapid pace scenario to win the Fountain of Youth. He might deserve a bit of a mulligan, considering the soft pace in the Florida Derby. He seems to have really stepped up his game in the morning ever since, including a sharp half-mile breeze punctuated by a solid gallop-out here last week. He looks like a horse who could sneak in for a big slice at a square price.

Game Winner is obviously a major player here at his best with a clean run, but he’s a horse who has managed to find trouble in all recent starts. That includes his Breeders’ Cup victory here last fall, when he proved talented enough to overcome a pretty unlucky trip against a lesser bunch than he’ll face Saturday. He may not be as fortunate if he finds traffic issues or gets hung wide against this pretty talented-looking group.

Not sure what to make of the undefeated Maximum Security, who is certainly flying under the radar having done all his preparations in unique fashion down in South Florida. He’s talented enough to get the job done again under the proper circumstances and likely to be a major overlay at post time, despite coming in as the reigning Florida Derby winner.