Mike Welsch's 2019 Belmont Stakes analysis

In a race where distance is the great equalizer, will take a shot for some value with SIR WINSTON, the lesser regarded of the Mark Casse duo in this year’s Belmont Stakes.

Sir Winston is coming off far and away the best race of his career in the Peter Pan, has shown an obvious affinity for the quirky Belmont surface, has trained extremely well since his last start, and looks like a horse who should handle the grueling 12 furlongs without issue. The major question is whether he’ll get the proper pace scenario to flatter his late-running style.

Nobody has trained better than TACITUS leading up to the Belmont. He has shown steady improvement in his morning activity in the weeks leading up to the Derby and was better yet in his final two works in advance of the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown.

And breeding-wise, it’s hard not to make note of the fact Tapit offspring have won three of the last five renewals of this event. Price will be the issue as Tacitus has certainly become the buzz horse of late and stands a good chance of going postward the favorite.

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WAR OF WILL looked none the worse for wear for having already participated in the opening two legs of this year’s Triple Crown series upon his arrival here earlier this week, making a very favorable impression on the track while showing a high energy level Tuesday. But, like Tacitus, the Preakness winner does not figure to be much higher than 2-1 at post time, a tough number to take with him coming off a perfect-trip victory in Baltimore and with the added distance and cumulative effects of participating in all three legs of this year’s Triple Crown series.

Lots to like about SPINOFF, who appears to have progressed nicely in the weeks since the Derby and is trained by a guy who has had a pretty fair track record in this event. Looks like a horse sitting on an improved effort if able to handle the added ground.