Mike Watchmaker's Derby analysis

I’ve been on DORTMUND’s bandwagon since his win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in his first start this year, and I am not getting off now.

What impressed me about Dortmund’s win in the Lewis was the way he came back from apparent defeat to edge as good a colt as Firing Line (who won the Sunland Derby in his next start by more than 14 lengths) and left the third finisher an incredible 21 1/2 lengths back. And yet Dortmund’s subsequent victories in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby were even better. He absolutely toyed with his field when he won the San Felipe and thoroughly dominated when he won the Santa Anita Derby most recently.

Dortmund is a fighter. He is equally effective on the lead or coming from off the pace. He has beaten good horses. And he won at Churchill Downs last fall, so he is familiar with the surroundings. It’s almost an afterthought that he comes into the Derby undefeated after six starts.

FROSTED turned his career around by winning the Wood Memorial last time out after two disappointing outings at Gulfstream Park to begin the season. Frosted was four wide around the track in the Wood Memorial and well behind a very slow pace, but he still put in a sustained rally to score going away in good relative final time. It’s true that Frosted’s three best races all came on Aqueduct’s main track, but he might fall through the cracks in the Derby betting and could wind up an attractive overlay.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

UPSTART was second-best most recently in the Florida Derby after racing outside, which was by far the best part of the track at a time when the rail at Gulfstream was profoundly dead. However, the Florida Derby was the fastest Derby prep this year in terms of Beyer Speed Figures, so Upstart still earned a fine number. Upstart was involved early in the Florida Derby, but he might be better served dropping back and making one run, which he can do Saturday.

AMERICAN PHAROAH was brilliant in winning four straight stakes, but he had very easy trips in all those scores and has faced weak company this year. It’s possible that American Pharoah is so good that he can handle anything thrown at him. But that’s guesswork at this point, and I don’t want to guess with a favorite.

Firing Line lost close decisions to Dortmund in December and February, but I wonder if he really wants to go 10 furlongs.

Materiality, the winner of the Florida Derby, did not race at 2; no horse has won the Derby without having raced at 2 since 1882. He’s only raced three times, and my concern is whether that’s enough foundation for this.