Mike Watchmaker's Belmont Stakes analysis

CREATOR was my pick in the Kentucky Derby, and he finished 13th. But I’m going back to him in the Belmont because he never really had a chance at Churchill Downs to show what he can do. Creator appeared to have run late on the far turn, only to be blocked, walloped, taken up, and otherwise completely wiped out at the top of the stretch.

No one knows if Creator would have made an impact on the Derby with a cleaner trip, but he is a strong finisher, and it is worth noting that when he ran into trouble, he was four to five lengths ahead of Suddenbreakingnews. Suddenbreakingnews, of course, closed fast in the Derby to finish fifth (he was third one jump past the wire) and was beaten less than five lengths for it all.

Prior to a Derby outing that is best ignored, Creator was one of the most improved members of his crop. He was a rallying third in the Rebel Stakes in his first start off a romp over maidens, and followed with a breakthrough victory in the Arkansas Derby. In both of those stakes, Creator finished ahead of Suddenbreakingnews.

Finally, the concerns over whether Creator would get a fair pace in the Belmont to set up his late run were addressed Monday, when his connections added Gettysburg to the field. Gettysburg’s task is to ensure an honest pace. That helps Creator. It does, however, also help the other closers.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was shuffled back significantly early in the Derby and ran well, even if his late run was set up by a fast early pace. I don’t think Suddenbreakingnews has to be quite as far back early as he has been in his recent races, and he would be dangerous if he is the closer who gets first run.

Until Gettysburg’s addition, STRADIVARI looked like he might be the Belmont pacesetter by default. But Stradivari might actually benefit from Gettysburg’s presence as he might be more effective with a target to track early. Stradivari was a game fourth in the Preakness, especially when you consider it was only his second start this year and his first in a stakes race. He still has lots of room to improve.

EXAGGERATOR will be attempting to become the first horse to win the Preakness and Belmont after finishing second in the Derby since Nashua 61 years ago. But while he is strictly the one to beat, he received ideal pace setups in the Preakness, Derby, and in his romp in the Santa Anita Derby three starts back. He won’t get quite the same setup Saturday. Moreover, he might not be quite as effective when he lays closer in the early stages.