Mike Beer's Preakness analysis
Considering that every Preakness dating to 1985 (at least), save three (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, and Rachel Alexandra in 2009), has been won by a horse exiting the Kentucky Derby, the first Saturday in May would seem to be a proper place to go looking for the winner of the second leg of the 2016 Triple Crown.
There are few to choose from, with only three Derby runners electing to wheel back two weeks later in the Preakness.
NYQUIST emerged from the Kentucky Derby with his undefeated record intact, and he did so while managing to keep himself within range of a fast pace every step of the way. It was a legitimate win for last year’s juvenile male champion, who now has five Grade 1 wins to his credit, and he earned a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure for his trouble. The question now is whether he can come back two weeks later with a performance of similar quality.
So far, getting Nyquist to show up on race day has not been a problem for trainer Doug O’Neill. While comparing horses of different years is never an exact science, it is worth noting that O’Neill has experience in this area, as his 2012 Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, actually took a step forward off his 101 Beyer win in Kentucky to put up a 109 when taking the Preakness. Whether Nyquist has that kind of effort in him remains to be seen, but he is unlikely to need to improve at all to win the Preakness this year. He is a fresh horse heading to Pimlico, with only three races behind him this year, and he has so far mastered his main rival, EXAGGERATOR, in each of their four prior meetings. I’m all for trying to beat short-priced favorites, but there is seemingly little solid ground to stand on against this highly accomplished colt Saturday.
Exaggerator is the only other Grade 1 winner in the Preakness field, having taken the Santa Anita Derby in April with a Beyer that matches Nyquist’s 103 from the Derby. He is a rock-solid horse and the main threat to the favorite, but he has been unable to get the better of his nemesis after four attempts. Exaggerator did have a pace to close into when a rallying second in the Derby, but it is worth pointing out that, fast fractions or not, he is the only horse to make a significant run from off the pace in a race where both Nyquist and eventual third-place finisher Gun Runner were closest to the pacesetter throughout.
Exaggerator got going early in the Derby and managed to carry his run all the way to the finish while the other closers were mostly running best when the race was already over. His connections have seemingly settled on that one-run style for him, which cedes the advantage to Nyquist every time they line up against each other.
UNCLE LINO is the most interesting new challenger to Nyquist. He enters with a record of just 2 for 7, but he finished an excellent third behind Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby after attending a scorching pace all the way, and he most recently earned a career-best figure in winning a listed stakes around two turns in California. He has the kind of speed to pull an up-close trip in the Preakness, and there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree to help him see out the trip.
STRADIVARI is the wild card in the field for top connections, and the 100 Beyer he earned for his blowout win in his lone start as a 3-year-old suggests that he could easily be a player in this division by year’s end. He did not draw particularly well out in post 11, and comparisons to the similarly lightly raced 2006 Preakness winner, Bernardini, seem a little ambitious at this point. He has looked good galloping away from overmatched horses in his last two starts, but he is going to be confronted by a stern pace and some quality rivals for the first time Saturday.