Mike Beer's Belmont Stakes analysis
Considering what he was up against in the Preakness (a big class rise, sloppy track, and much faster pace), STRADIVARI acquitted himself quite well to land a piece of that race in just his fourth career start, and did so while backing up the 100 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for a facile win against overmatched horses in his 3-year-old debut. He is exposed now, but the pace scenario for the Belmont Stakes should be much more favorable for him, and he is one of the few true contenders in this year’s field who is eligible to improve again.
EXAGGERATOR is clearly the horse to beat as he looks to annex a second leg of the Triple Crown, this time in the absence of his rival Nyquist. He was a clear-cut winner of the Preakness three weeks ago over several of these and outkicked most of the rest of them when second in the Derby. The one niggling question with him surrounds his two best performances, which both came over wet tracks in races that featured wicked paces. I think he’ll be kept closer in this Belmont, and he may simply be the best horse.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS has developed an annoying habit of running when the race is already over, as was the case in that fast-paced Derby, where he was given a perfect closer’s trip by his former rider. He switches to Mike Smith but has to get into gear much earlier Saturday.
DESTIN would have been an interesting horse in the Preakness had he shown up there following a deceptively good performance in the Derby off a 56-day break. He awaited this instead and appears to be a prime contender.