Mike Beer's analysis and picks for mandatory Empire 6 payout

There is a mandatory payout of the Empire 6 (races 4-9) on Sunday at Aqueduct. Here is a look at the sequence.

Race 4
A field of seven New York-bred $25,000 claimers will travel a mile in the first leg of this Empire 6 sequence with a mandatory payout. With some wide-open races coming up later, I will lean on No. 4 Control Group to kick it off. Control Group ran well in his first start off the claim for trainer Jason Servis while contesting a fast pace going longer, then dropped to this level last time following a disappointing run in the slop and won easily from off the pace. His newfound versatility gives leading rider Jose Lezcano options, and he will be tough in here just running back to that one. No. 7 Shamrock Kid didn’t run as poorly as it looks in his last two starts, and he is getting significant class relief for this race. Will use him as a backup to the favorite.
A: 4
B: 7

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Race 5
More New York-breds going a one-turn mile in leg two, this time with a well-matched field of six. Morning-line favorite No. 4 Storm Prophet can easily win, but he is 3 for 33 lifetime, with his most recent win coming way back in December 2017, and he has settled for second-best 14 times along the way. I’m going to give No. 2 Vincento a chance here at a better price after breaking poorly and trying to rally from last over a sloppy track last time. No. 1 Bluegrascat’s Smile is in good form for a hot trainer and makes as much sense as the favorite, and No. 6 Danebury, who is at his best when able to make the early lead, may be able to get to that position from his outside draw.
A: 1, 2
B: 6

Race 6
No one to trust in this $10,000 claimer for older horses over a mile where the favorites are No. 1 Shalako (eased and vanned off the track last time and now dropping in class) and No. 4 Mills (last won a race in November 2017 at Parx Racing; last dirt win in New York in November 2015). You probably have to use them somewhere, but I’ll try to get No. 3 Local Hero, who has plenty of back races that make him a contender here, to run his best race as he goes off the claim for Gary Gullo. Wider tickets may want to try to get No. 8 Sandy Lane in there somewhere.
A: 1, 3
B: 4

Race 7
Hard to dismiss anyone in this field of seven older sprinters, which contains plenty of early speed. I ultimately decided to give No. 3 Vorticity one more chance as he turns back after failing to get aggressive over a mile last time. He has had trouble staying on the track but is fast enough to win here and is capable from just off the pace. No. 4 Chateau is really fast early, but he does not finish strongly in his races and has the speed of No. 2 Tribecca to his inside to deal with. Perhaps the layoff will help No. 5 Fuel the Bern get back to one of his good races here after he gave way in a much tougher race when last seen. His trainer has won with 10 of his last 13 starters in non-stakes races.
A: 3, 4, 5

Race 8
The featured Biogio’s Rose, for New York-bred fillies and mares over a one-turn mile is another race in this sequence that appears to be open to several different outcomes. No. 7 Newly Minted was compromised when breaking poorly from the gate both two and three starts back, and got back on track last time when easily handling entry-level allowance rivals with a new top figure. No. 2 Our Super Nova failed to stretch out effectively as the favorite in the Bay Ridge, but she was in strong form prior to that and is a real threat to bounce back as she returns to a one-turn mile. As a longshot, I want to use No. 5 Espresso Shot, who has struggled since going back to back in the East View and the Busher over this track and trip as a 2-year-old. She returned from a layoff late last year and ran better than it looks in those races while badly compromised by dynamics.
A: 2, 7
B: 5, 6

Race 9
No. 6 High School Crush may finally be in the right spot as she tries this $25,000 maiden claimer for the second time and is the horse to beat as the favorite. Alternatives include No. 5 Goosarella, dropping in class for the first time and cutting back in distance after failing to get a mile last time, and No. 10 A d’Oro, making her first start since debuting versus maiden special weight rivals at Saratoga and proving to be no match after chasing the pace.
A: 5, 6