Midnight Storm will be tough to catch in Shoemaker Mile

The outcome of the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita could be determined in the first 100 yards. If Midnight Storm clears the field at the start, it is going to be very difficult to catch him. Unbeaten in three grass starts, he got a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in his grass debut last August and followed it up 21 days later with a 95 when he dominated the Del Mar Derby at 17-1. In his first 4-year-old start, an optional claimer, the colt won by nearly eight lengths and got a 106. This horse may not need the lead to win, but he has been brilliant with the lead.

Winning Prize is the key to how the race will be run. The 6-year-old was good enough to pair 105 Beyers last year, culminating in a win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile, a race he won on the lead. The horse has not won since, and the Beyers have dropped. He now has the rail and gets blinkers. If he is sent to the front by Martin Garcia and ensures a hot pace, just about any result is possible, especially given how well Bal a Bali, 11 for 12 lifetime in Brazil, ran in winning his American debut with a 102 Beyer. There is no real way to know how good this horse might be, but he obviously knows how to win.

The Stephen Foster is the centerpiece of a terrific nighttime card at Churchill Downs. Lea got a 114 Beyer in winning the 2014 Donn Handicap. It was almost a year before he ran again, but he came back in top form with a 106 in the Hal’s Hope, a 110 in the Donn, and a strong third just behind California Chrome in the Dubai World Cup. I have no explanation for the winner’s race that night, but it surely looked as though California Chrome ran near his top form. If Lea was just behind the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, you have to think his Beyer equivalent stayed solid. No doubt Bill Mott will have him ready. His best – or something close to his best – is going to be good enough.

Commissioner proved his 109 Beyer earned winning the Skip Away was not a fluke when he came back to win the Pimlico Special with a 102. He is dangerous from the rail, but this pace may be a bit hotter than he has dealt with lately.

Hoppertunity’s two best races have come when he has come east – he won the Rebel with a 100 last spring and the Clark with a 104 last fall at Churchill.

Half the field in the Fleur de Lis looks so similar Beyer-wise that race shape almost certainly is going to impact the result. My Sweet Addiction, fast enough to lead sprint races at Santa Anita, looks like the lone speed. She comes off a career-best 95 earned winning the Grade 1 Vanity last month.

Yahilwa certainly has speed if her connections want to use it, but she has proved she can win from off the pace. Sheer Drama (93, 99, and 91 in her last three) and Gold Medal Dancer (97, 94, and 93) remain in career-best form.

Lady Zuzu looks like the lone speed in the Regret. She was good enough to get a 70 and a 75 in her two grass starts last year. Her three Beyers this year are 81, 79, and 82, any of which could win the race.

Urtheoneeyelove has not run since finishing fourth and getting a 79 on April 12 in the Appalachian, an incredibly strong stakes. The brilliant winner Lady Eli now is 5 for 5 after coming back May 31 to win the Wonder Again at Belmont Park. Her Beyer dropped to 85, but that was strictly a function of the slow pace in front of her that day. Miss Temple City, who was second in the Appalachian, came back to win the Hilltop at Pimlico with a 90 Beyer the day before the Preakness. Sunset Glow finished second on May 15 in the Wait a While at Belmont Park while getting an 83 Beyer.

Matt Winn favorite Fame and Power got blinkers and had the rail in the Sir Barton on Preakness Day at Pimlico. The strategy was obvious: send him to the front. Martin Garcia did, and the result was never in doubt, a powerful win with a career-best 99 Beyer. The strategy looks equally obvious for Victor Espinoza in this heat, a race without any other obvious pace. This improving colt looks like he could be very difficult to catch.