Midnight Bisou in Desi Arnaz could clear up gray day

More than the dreary fall weather in my home state of Kentucky has me eyeing the racing from Del Mar on Saturday. The presence of Midnight Bisou in Saturday’s Desi Arnaz Stakes also has me eager to watch that race from afar.

For a filly that lost, Midnight Bisou sure caught the eye Oct. 27 at Santa Anita in her only start. Competing against what seemed an above-average maiden field, she did everything but win – bearing down on the favorite and stretch leader Dream Tree only to miss by a nose in a head-bobbing photo.

Her price Saturday will probably be a 10th of the 21-1 she was first out, but hopefully still a bit larger than the odds on Dream Tree, with whom she is rematched. Dream Tree is trained by Bob Baffert, whose 2-year-olds are typically hammered at the betting windows.

I respect Dream Tree. She is striking, with a long stride that has rattled off two fast six-furlong works since her winning debut. And she has every right to be tighter following that race and the works.

Of course, Midnight Bisou should also be fitter. She comes off one of her quickest works, a half-mile in 48.40 seconds at Del Mar that ranked as the second-fastest of nine at that distance Monday.

My hope is that speedsters Ms Bad Behavior and Secret Spice will occupy Dream Tree early, while Midnight Bisou lies in wait, ready to pounce and run them down with a favorable stretch-out from six to seven furlongs.

Sloppy weather for Cardinal

Just how dreary is the weather supposed to be here in the Bluegrass State on Saturday? Well, so bad the National Weather Service on Thursday was calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. And if it rains as much as expected, up to a half-inch, the Grade 3 Cardinal at Churchill Downs will probably be run on a yielding turf course or perhaps even get moved to a sloppy main track.

My selection for a soggy turf course is Tricky Escape. Although effective on firm ground, she posted her highest Beyer Speed Figure on yielding turf at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 14 when second in the Ramsey Farm under boggy conditions.

The winner, Kitten’s Roar, has since returned to run second in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor and later win the Grade 2 Goldikova.

The 1 1/8-mile distance of the Cardinal also suits Tricky Escape, as does the presence of jockey Chris DeCarlo, who rode her to victory in the Grade 3 Violet this summer and also to her runner-up finish in the Ramsey Farm.

In the event the Cardinal gets moved to a wet main track, she is still a contender, having run second in an off-the-turf race in the slop this summer at Delaware, but I’d have no interest in betting her. She is much faster on grass than dirt, and merely seems to tolerate the dirt.

Fair Grounds opens

There are four stakes for Louisiana-breds on the opening day at Fair Grounds, with the last of them, the $50,000 Heitei at six furlong on dirt, the race I like most.

Sir Genghis is my choice because two of his primary contenders – Eden’s Grey Kitten and Icy Gentleman – appear disadvantaged by the conditions. Eden’s Grey Kitten has made 24 of his 25 starts on turf, and did not hit the board in his lone dirt start. Icy Gentleman is winless in three main-track races at Fair Grounds.

Sir Genghis, on the other hand, has won two races over the Fair Grounds dirt, and ran a close third in this race a year ago. And though most of his recent form has been established routing, this is a horse that earlier in his career won a stakes going as short as five furlongs on dirt, suggesting he shouldn’t have any problem turning back in distance.