Middleburg may be vulnerable favorite in Miami Mile
Favoritism rests with Middleburg, but value might reside elsewhere in the Grade 3, $100,000 Miami Mile on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
The 6-year-old Middleburg was installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the Miami Mile, a short grass route, and his popular connections, trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joe Bravo, and competitive speed figures in graded stakes competition could push his price lower still. No doubt, Middleburg fits the spot on paper, but he’s making his first start in six months, facing a faster-paced race than has been his norm, and is racing at a distance perhaps a touch shorter than ideal.
“Obviously, it’s an ambitious spot first time back, but he’s training very well, and I’m very happy with him,” said Clement.
Handicappers will note Middleburg’s strong 6-3-1-1 record over the Gulfstream grass and that he won his 5-year-old debut over the course on March 29, 2015. But look a little closer at that local comeback run and find Middleburg perched perfectly in second behind a walking pace that will be far different than the scenario he faces Saturday. Clement said Middleburg “is an easy horse to ride” and runs effectively stalking a slow pace or rallying into a fast one, but the fact remains that Middleburg hasn’t actually seen a hot pace since August 2014 and has yet to deliver one of his top efforts in such a race.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 6 Middleburg. Trainer Christophe Clement is 15-1-1-2 with a $0.97 ROI over the past five years in turf route graded stakes following a layoff of 180 days. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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The Miami Mile’s speed lives inside, with the rail-drawn Conquest Tsunami, the first-call leader in all of his races beyond six furlongs, nearly certain to go to the front. Smokem Kitten, drawn in post 2, set a 7 1/2-furlong Gulfstream course record in a blowout first-level allowance win March 20, a race in which he tracked a sub-22-second quarter-mile and sub-45 half. Similar tactics place Smokem Kitten not far off the lead Saturday, and Hothersal, stretching out from five furlongs, looks likely to show some zip.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 2 Smokem Kitten. Trainer Mike Maker is 40-13-6-2 with a $2.44 ROI over the past five years in with last-out winners in turf routes in the third start following a layoff. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
With Exultation looks like a potential value player at a reasonable 8-1 on the morning line. He faced stronger competition while finishing sixth April 2 in the Grade 3 Appleton and did not run his best race that day on a course rated “good.”
“There was some heavy rain early in the day, and I don’t think he cared for the turf,” trainer George Weaver said. “The horse has come back to train well, and this looks like it might be a little easier spot. If he goes back and runs as well as he did two races ago, he could be competitive.”
Indeed, With Exultation, racing the first time off a $35,000 claim, was an eye-catching winner of a $60,000 starter stakes two back over the Gulfstream course. He has won half of his eight starts at this one-mile trip and could land an ideal spot tracking the front-runners.
Pace battle looms in Powder Break
There might be even more speed in the $100,000 Powder Break for fillies and mares than there is in the Miami Mile. The aptly named Speed Seeker could prove to be the speed of the speed if she runs right back to her sharp last-out score April 6 in a Florida-bred stakes at Tampa, but she will have to work to shake loose from Cali Thirty Seven and Daring Kathy.
Daring Kathy chased Speed Seeker all the way around the Tampa course April 6 in an improved performance over her 2016 debut, and trainer David Fawkes said he expects more from the mare Saturday. But if the pace players compromise one another, the Powder Break could come down to Notte d’Oro and E B Ryder.
The Clement-trained Notte d’Oro will be much the shorter price of the two closers, though she was mildly disappointing when coming home a one-paced fourth as the favorite Feb. 20 in the Daisy Devine at Fair Grounds. E B Ryder is prone to second-place finishes (11 in her career compared with five wins) but is back now at her favorite one-mile trip, a distance at which she has compiled a fine 4-3-0 record from 10 starts.