The Meadows: $20,000 Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 4 Analysis

The Meadows presents a stellar 16-race card on Saturday, July 31 highlighted by the $375,000 Delvin Miller Adios. In addition to a number of guaranteed wagers there will be a $20,558 mandatory payout carryover in the Adios Hi-5. Let's look at one of the guarantees.

Race 12: $106,745 Adioo Volo

Most tickets in this Pick 4 sequence will include (3) BLUE DIAMOND EYES off her track record-equaling victory last week, and that's where I'm going to find my value by tossing her out of the top spot. (5) CHASE LOUNGE looked to have a serious chance to roll by #3 last week when she ran into some steering issues out of the blue. If those are straightened away, she should have a big chance. (1) CONTINUALOU and (2) BEACH CRAZY are well drawn to the inside of the favorite and either seems capable of saving ground and getting "lucky" at a big price.

Race 13: $21,035 Arden Downs

(4) JM'S FINALTREASURE has a pair of wins and seconds from four starts while putting in strong miles each time. Both losses came to undefeated colts (Night Hawk and I Did It Myway). (3) ALL THE CHIPS couldn’t touch #4 two starts back but was able to uncork a monster 1:52 2/5 win last time out. He's worth a saver option to go along with the favored top pick.

Race 14: $21,035 Arden Downs

(6) FOUREVER BOY hasn’t done much in three starts while facing some of the best colts in Pennsylvania. Today he drops in company with the track's leading driver Dave Palone taking over the lines and I’m hoping we’ll see some early speed. (5) GOOD DEAL just missed in his debut and just didn't have it last time, which is probably why David Miller opted off. As a horse that will likely be near the front, he's worth a shot at the listed 6-1 morning line to rebound. (8) BOARDWALK BET has yet to lose in two starts. How good is he? That is the big unknown. I wouldn’t fault anyone who wanted to toss him off their tickets as the possible lukewarm favorite.

Race 15: $375,000 Adios Pace

It is hard to say that a horse which lost by just a length in 1:48 3/5 looked short, but that's the feeling I got watching (1) ROCKYROAD HANOVER last week. It's understandable when you realize he paced his first three quarters in 1:21 3/5 last week, more than a second faster than he's been to that call all year and about two seconds faster than his last two starts. Driver Dexter Dunn will likely be very aggressive off the gate to secure position behind (4) WATER SPORTS TEEN and hopefully his charge will be a bit tighter today. The latter has been super since the barn change and is clearly the one to beat. (2) LOU'S PEARLMAN and (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER are both trip threats who could pull off a mild upset.

.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 1,2,5 / 3,4 / 5,6,8 / 1,4 = $18