Meadowlands: Saturday 8/4 Analysis
Best Bet: HANNELORE HANOVER (6th)
Spot Play: PHAETOSIVE (12th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 8 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 95 - 273 / $457.50 (-$88.50)
BEST BETS: 17 - 25 / $51.60 (+$1.60)
Race 1
(5) OBRIGADO raced well in his first start of the year versus a similar field on July 13 and picked up a nice confidence-building win up at Tioga a week later. Now with a solid foundation under his belt, there is no reason why we can’t expect a big mile from this classy 8-year-old. (7) SUTTON really surprised me with his win here on July 13. I was starting to doubt if he had that kind of mile in him. Apparently he does. (3) MUSCLE DIAMOND followed up his huge 1:50 1/5 mile with another solid performance. He’s a player with any decent trip. (1A) PINKMAN can’t catch a break; another bad post.
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Race 2
(4) KISSIN IN THE SAND has clearly been the best 3-year-old pacing filly in the sport this year. While she lost her recent tune-up qualifier, it is worth noting that no attempt was made to win that race as Zeron kept ‘Kissin’ comfortably behind Pure Country without asking her. (2) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL rolled versus lesser at The Meadows most recently. I do think she has a shot at the top one but playing an exacta box won’t yield a big return. (3) DANCE BLUE seems to be getting better and better, but this is a tough test.
Race 3
(5) BASQUIAT hasn’t had a chance to shine yet in 2018 after a strong freshman campaign. The best is yet to come and new driver Johnny Takter may be the one to get a top effort from her. (1) REPENTANCE raced well behind Atlanta last time, had no shot from post 9 in her prior start, and won her two previous tries. This is definitely a winning spot at what should be a relatively short price. (11) PERFECT SUMMER K couldn’t go with Hambletonian Oaks competition last week. She is back in her comfort zone now and gets Lasix once again. (8) COURTNEY HANOVER has the early speed to make some noise and could hang in there if left alone.
Race 4
(6) DON’T LET’EM tracked Gerry last time and couldn’t quite get there despite a 26 3/5 stretch sprint. You have to think Gingras will have her forwardly placed this week and in better position to win. (5) GREENSHOE is immensely talented but still learning to control himself behind the gate. With a big crowd expected, I’m not sure how he’ll react and I don’t want the risk of betting this guy at a short price. That said, I respect his ability. Go back and watch the qualifier from (1) WHITE TIGER on July 28. That was some move! This guy has a big motor and could upset. (3) GERRY is undefeated and hard to toss.
Race 5
(5) THE ICE DUTCHESS just missed despite an impossible trip last week. Daughter of Muscle Hill has displayed the ability to take air and grind on the rim. I’m not sure if she is the fastest in here but she can wear them down. (6) STARITA has turned her game around with hobbles added and should offer some value in here as (1) BEAUTIFUL SIN, who finished a nose behind last week, figures to go off as the favorite again. The latter was used early and just missed while racing in a torrential downpour. She deserves respect. (3) SPECIAL HONOR gapped much of the way and gobbled up the field in the stretch with a ground saving trip.
Race 6
(12) HANNELORE HANOVER will have to navigate the second tier, but it helps that she has stablemates in post 2 and 3 in front of her to push away or clear a path. 2017 Horse of the Year is much the best and it’s a pleasure to watch her. Too bad they card these races at 1-1/8 and she can’t set a world record at a mile. (8) MARION MARAUDER has to be gunning off the gate in this spot and should be chasing home the super-mare for second. (4) BILL’S MAN is a grinder who seems to enjoy the added distance. (9) WARRAWEE ROO comes down from Canada with fine form and I have to assume they didn’t make the trip to sit last; leaves!
Race 7
We’re going to get a sweet price on a freshened up (4) NUTCRACKER SWEET that is too enticing to pass up on. He just missed in the Max Hempt and finished well from a tough spot in the Meadowlands Pace. Now in his second start on Lasix and a few weeks off after seven straight weeks of racing, why can’t this guy be the next winner in a wide-open division? (2) COURTLY CHOICE is the deserving heavy chalk and a must use on your tickets. (3) STAY HUNGRY is a capable horse. If he is sitting behind live cover, watch out! (9) AMERICAN HISTORY comes off a pair of solid efforts at The Meadows. It looks like he’ll need to be used too hard early from the outside post.
Race 8 – Hambletonian Elimination
(5) WOLFGANG has done everything right this year. He loses Lasix for this race but trainer Jimmy Takter said it shouldn’t affect him much because he is on a low dosage. I’m looking for Gingras to float away from the gate, make his move on the backstretch and never look back. (7) ATLANTA is also perfect on the year as she puts that record on the line versus boys rather than race in the Oaks. I believe she is extremely talented but I’m not crazy how this race shapes up for her. There is plenty of inside speed so she’ll either have to work to be in her preferred spot on the engine or try to catch some very talented horses late. She may be good enough to accomplish that. I’m more likely to make her prove it at what should be odds of under 2-1. (4) LAWMAKER went down the road versus lesser and now keeps David Miller in the bike. This guy is very fast off the gate and should make some noise. (6) CRYSTAL FASHION is hard to knock with a 8-5-3-0 record. Personally I prefer to back the horses expected to be near the lead, but he is certainly a player.
Race 9 – Hambletonian Elimination
(9) SIX PACK has proven himself week after week despite tough trips and bad posts. I see no reason why this time should be any different. (4) ALARM DETECTOR didn’t look right and raced accordingly early in the year. He seems to have turned the corner and might be an interesting longshot play. (8) YOU KNOW YOU DO has chased home the winner in consecutive weeks while finishing up willingly in very fast miles. If he behaves and can get away in good order, it really isn’t a stretch to see him battle the top pick. (3) CLASSICHAP finally seems to be coming into his own. Is he ready for a big mile? (7) TACTICAL LANDING can trot all day judging by his recent races, but how will he react when stressed in a fast mile?
Race 10
(6) TAE KWON DEO raced very well in an overnight to start his year but got caught in Six Pack’s world record mile two starts back and couldn’t rally into pedestrian fractions most recently. This is a great spot for him to shine for the Takter brothers. (12) HELPISONTHEWAY has stamped himself as one of the best in New York and even picked up a win here; one to beat? (7) SCIROCCO ROB has won three straight and should be controlling the action; hard to toss. (1) SPARTAN also has a winning streak of his own. Is he fast enough?
Race 11
If you read between the lines, (3) ALL BETS OFF really doesn’t look quite as bad on paper as it seems. He just missed in a big mile three starts back, proved cover for winner McWicked two back, and raced evenly from the second tier behind slow fractions last time. Seven-year-old isn’t the fastest in here but he is the richest and can show why. (8) MISO FAST has put together back-to-back 1:47 and change miles while finishing second twice. After losing twice on the engine, perhaps Tetrick can figure out a way to get him off cover or in the pocket. (12) MCWICKED is clearly the sharpest horse in the field. If Sears can work his usual magic to get him second or third over despite the second tier starting spot, watch out! (6) WESTERN JOE rarely tossing in a complete clunker and has the early speed to make his presence felt.
Race 12
I’m all in on (5) PHAETOSIVE. She seems to be getting better every week as trainer/driver Trond Smedshammer has prepared her perfectly for this moment. Despite facing a talented group, there is no doubt for me that if provided a target she can trot them down. (4) MANCHEGO will be the favorite and certainly has a more accomplished driver at the helm. I can’t fault anyone for liking her chances. My gut says she comes up second best. (1) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP is the fastest 3-year-old trotter in history, though that could change when this race is complete. On paper she is a factor, but I like the top two better. (3) SEVIYORUM didn’[t have much opportunity to shine in her elimination from post 9. If she has anything in the tank it’s time to show it.
Race 13 – Hambletonian Final
My head tells me SIX PACK is the one to beat here but I’m going to take a flyer with YOU KNOW YOU DO to win the big prize. If he can make the final without working too hard and land a decent post, he seems as fast as any in here.
Race 14
I’m going to take a stand against the favorite here even though I love seeing her win. (8) CELEBRITY RUTH wasn’t put in play last time but should be firing hard off the wings of the gate with over $154K on the line. She isn’t the filly that (9) ARIANA G is, but at 6-1 vs. 1-5, maybe she can pull off the upset one time. The latter is a true champion and will not go down without a fight. Just looking at her 24 for 31 career record give you chills. (2) BROADWAY DONNA has been known to step up with a big mile at times. Is this one of those days? (4) EMOTICON HANOVER is the only other mare in the race to trot as fast as Ariana G.
Race 15
(4) PURE COUNTRY had no shot in the Golden Girls and qualified back with a nice prep mile last week. She’s been dull so far this year, but if memory serves this is about the time she got going in 2017 too. (1) SHARTIN N came up short here on July 14 but got right back on track at Pocono on Sunday. She’s no doubt the one to beat. (2) L A DELIGHT has been right there with this crew all year but can’t seem to get over the top. (10) CALL ME QUEEN BE is fast off the gate and the extra distance gives her a shot to dart to the front and get a nice piece.
Race 16
(3) MORE THE BETTER N has been super since coming to the U.S. This is a huge test but I think he’ll pass. (6) DONTTELLMEAGAIN has been keeping better company and should perk up against this field. (7) AMERICANPRIMETIME owns the early speed to get involved and last for an exotics slot. (2A) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH has been racing reasonably well and comes as part of a Burke entry.
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