Meadowlands: Saturday 8/3 Analysis

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 105 - 314 / $536.40 (-$91.60)
BEST BETS: 15 - 23 / $52.40 (+$6.40)
BEST BET: Lather Up (7th)
SPOT PLAY: Hypnotic Am (4th)
Race 1 – 4-Year-Old Open
(2) BACKSTREET SHADOW has looked even more like a killer since moving into the Ron Burke barn two starts back. This isn’t an easy spot, but this guy might be too sharp to beat now. (5) HAYDEN HANOVER is going to be headed for the front and early speed tends to travel a long way during the daylight hours at The Meadowlands. (9) WHEELS ON FIRE, like #5, is going to fire off the gate (unless he breaks again). (7) COURTLY CHOICE races with Lasix now. Can he possibly be ready for this having missed four weeks of action?
[HAMBLETONIAN DAY: FREE Harness Eye PPs, 10% Rebate on multi-race wagers & full-card live video for Saturday on DRF!]

Race 2 – Non-winners $15,100 in last 5 starts
(5) LETS ROLL went a huge mile in defeat to a very sharp horse last week. He steps up in class slightly but seems ready for it. (3) QUALITY BUD does his best work when sitting close to the front and he should be able to clear the top early in this one. (8) INCREDIBLE SHARK was pounded at the windows and raced very well to a horse that is simply better than him; huge threat here. (4) ANOTHER DAILY COPY has been racing well and is capable of a big mile.
Race 3 – Vincennes - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(4) RICH AND MISERABLE has proven himself to be best of the second squad of top trotters. Buter in the bike this week means we might get 8-5! (8) SPEEDING SPUR N finished up willingly in his North American debut and notice how much money he made overseas; serious threat. (1) PINKMAN does his best work near the pace and wasn’t in that position last time. (9) YES MICKEY does his best work with Dunn in the bike, but that doesn’t mean Svanstedt can’t get a big mile out of him.
Race 4 – James Doherty Memorial
Driver Brian Sears was very patient with (5) HYPNOTIC AM in her elimination and that’s the reason she won by only a nose. If he let’s her out a notch this group is in big trouble. (9) HELLO TOMORROW almost stole the race from the top pick last time. She may offer value with the undefeated (3) CRUCIAL likely to go off second choice.
Race 5 – Peter Haughton Memorial
After watching (4) REAL COOL SAM overcome three straight outside posts, I’m having a hard time seeing how he doesn’t best this field from a perfect mid-pack spot. At this point he seems slightly more advanced. I loved the performance from (6) CAPRICORNUS in his elimination. He was behind a dull foe and charged home in the lane impressively; using. (3) SYNERGY has done everything right thus far and is another talented youngster in the group. (7) ROME PAYS OFF raced very well at long odds last time and he wouldn’t be a complete shock here.
Race 6 – Shady Daisy
Watching this group race in 2019 we’ve learned that there are four or five elite pacing fillies and the best thing to do is grab the best price. (7) TREACHEROUS REIGN took some air in the Adioo Volo and had to need the race after missing four weeks. She should be tight now and the addition of Lasix shouldn’t hurt. (5) STONEBRIDGE SOUL has won three straight stakes and is hard to leave off your tickets. (2) WARRAWEE UBEAUT is clearly a threat here and one to use, especially if she offers value. (4) TALL DRINK HANOVER upset the former last week with a perfect trip.
Race 7 – Sam McKee Memorial - $7K Jackpot Hi-5 Mandatory Payout
Is it possible we could get some value on (9) LATHER UP from the outside post this week? We shouldn’t. He’s fast off the gate and should be gunning towards the front in this added-distance race with the longer run into the first turn. Once he secures the front, unless one of these serves as the sacrificial lamb, there will be no catching him. (4) THIS IS THE PLAN lacks a killer instinct but can follow with the best of them. He should show speed and follow the favorite a long way. (5) DORSODURO HANOVER came up with a career best mile last time. I’d love to see him be more patient here and try to follow (2) MCWICKED, who comes off a sharp win at Saratoga. Many will say he’s back. I think he won a relatively slow race and needs to show more before I get on the bandwagon.
Race 8 – Hambletonian 1st Elim - **$100K GTD Pick 4**
(4) SOUL STRONG could surprise in the first Hambletonian elimination. He’s proven versatile enough to race from on or off the pace and seems to be every bit as fast as his competition. Dexter Dunn opting to stick here is a big plus. (7) GIMPANZEE is undefeated in 12 career starts. I’m anxious to see how he performs but not willing to take a short price on what is still an unproven horse in some respects. (8) GREEN MANALISHI S has talent but is still trying to put it all together. Having yet to see a really top performance from him this year, I’d pass at what will be a short price.
Race 9 – Hambletonian 2nd Elim
(5) GREENSHOE trotted in 1:50 1/5 last time out while barely breaking a sweat. Unless one of his foes today shows huge improvement, I don’t see how he can be defeated. (1) FORBIDDEN TRADE has won three straight and in his loss four starts back he dealt with some traffic issues. I’m not sure how fast he is at this point, but the price will be right. (6) DON’T LET’EM put up a monster 1:50 2/5 win of his own last Saturday, though he did get a bit crooked at the half. He might be talented enough to trot with Greenshoe on his best day. (8) MARSEILLE has big early speed and he could be sitting a great trip depending on the strategy of others.
Race 10 – Cashman Memorial
(9) SIX PACK is back on Lasix now, though he raced ok without it last time from an impossible spot. Post 9 isn’t ideal today, but he’ll be forwardly placed off the gate and he is the fastest horse. I’m on board hoping for 5-2 or higher. (4) EUROBOND has been a new horse since moving into the Julie Miller barn. After last week’s 1:50 1/5 win, I believe he can beat this group. (1) MARION MARAUDER was a decent second last time after missing four weeks of action. If he is going to fire a big shot, this might be the day. (2) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS is the leader of the pack in this group right now, but he still has to prove he can trot in 1:50 or lower.
Race 11 – Hambletonian Oaks - $53K Jackpot Hi-5 Mandatory Payout
(2) MILLIES POSSESION may not be as flashy as (5) WHEN DOVESCRY, but she has an innate will to win. She had every reason to go down in the stretch in her elimination and still dug in. You can’t teach heart! While not my top pick, you have to respect the pure speed and ability of When Dovescry. She may very well be the most naturally gifted filly in the race. (7) ASIAGO quietly trotted home in 26 2/5 last week. She may not be in the same ballpark as the top pair, but she could hit the board at a big price. (4) EVIDENT BEAUTY came at the top pick with dead aim last week and couldn’t get past. She’s a player but an underlay in my book.
Race 12 – Hambletonian Final Heat
It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a race before it is even drawn, but I have to stick with GREENSHOE as my Hambletonian winner until I see something that makes me change my mind.
Race 13 – John Steele Memorial - **50K GTD PICK-4**
If you watched (1) MANCHEGO last week there can be little doubt that she is feeling good now. Maybe it was the early season blues or perhaps Lasix has revived her in 2019, but she looks ready to trot in under 1:50. (6) HANNELORE HANOVER is hard to knock and she was the queen of this division long before Atlanta came along. No one would be surprised if she came up big. (8) CUSTOM CANTAB charged home in the Hambletonian Maturity but was dq’d. Four-year-old seems to be a serious horse, but I’d still want a double-digit price to play her. (7) DARLING MEARAS S comes off two strong efforts; hard to completely ignore.
Race 14 – Lady Liberty
(1) SHARTIN N has dominated this division with complete ease all season and it’s impossible to imagine that will change this week. (3) CAVIART ALLY hasn’t been able to beat the top pick yet in 2019 and settling for second may be in the cards again. (7) SEASWIFT JOY N was just OK in the Golden Girls but really picked up her game last time. She may just belong in this company. (9) APPLE BOTTOM JEANS has a big early speed game and should be put in play.
Race 15 – Cane Pace
(6) CAPTAIN CRUNCH and (4) BETTOR’S WISH have been tough to separate all year but I feel there is a better chance that Captain will control this race and if he’s on the lead, in a short field, he should hang in there. (3) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH is a steady sort who could leave for position and get into the lower exotics.
Race 16 – Non-winners 4/6 races or $50/$75,000 life
(4) CAN’T BEACH THAT woke up in a big way last time. If he can repeat that effort, he’ll win. (2) CAPTAIN MULZAC comes in from Philly with a fine record; gets tested. (6) WORLD ON EDGE will be put in play early and should have a say in the outcome. (8) WESTERN EXPOSURE hasn’t missed the board in 10 starts this year and only once in 14 career tries.