Meadowlands: Saturday 7/7 Analysis
Best Bet: HAYDEN HANOVER (6th)
Spot Play: CLOUSEAU HANOVER (9th)
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 64 - 174 / $293.80 (-$54.20)
BEST BETS: 11 - 17 / $35.40 (+$1.40)
Race 1
(7) DREAM BABY DREAM blew up at 1-2 in her last start but her prior race was fine. The price will get much better this week and she is more than capable as she faces mostly younger foes. (6) HAT TRICK HABIT moves into a new barn and seems to have found a good spot to utilize his early speed. (4) ZEPHYR KRONOS showed a different dimension by brushing to the front last time, but he really didn’t have to work hard to do it. This looks like his toughest test to date.
Race 2
(4) ROCKIN HANK raced OK from the back of the pack in a very fast mile for the class last week. Now Gingras joins the team and I’m expecting a big mile. (8) BAY RUM drops in for a tag so he can stick in this class. Reynolds trainee is in fine form. (9) WHATA TWIST raced reasonably well in a G Notes final last time. This is a spot where he may just show early speed. (1) OUTSIDER raced better in his second start for new trainer Michael Russo.
Race 3
(3) OUTCRY has done his best work a class lower than he is in on Saturday, but on paper this race plays more like a NW2500. He should be handled aggressively and have a tactical edge on his main competitors. (9) ROCKET J improved in his second start in the Russo barn and now gets to drop a notch; very dangerous despite the outside post. (5) LOVE TAP HANOVER is another class-dropper that could make some noise.
Race 4
(5) BEYOND DELIGHT gets a better post and drops a notch this week. There are no excuses for failure in here. (4) MEDOLAND JATE has been racing well and shouldn’t miss a beat moving into a high percentage barn. Interesting that he bumps up two classes off the claim. (1) WILLIE BOOTS has been going well since coming back from a break and now David Miller joins the team.
Race 5
(4) INTERNATIONAL MONI hasn’t been great but hasn’t been awful either in 2018. This is his first major stakes race of the year and as one of only two or three in here that seem capable of a 1:51 mile, he should be worth a play at a fair price. (8) ARIANA G has gone the wrong way in her last two starts, but she wasn’t really bad last time and the Jimmy Takter trainee did miss three weeks of action prior to that race. I’ll be using her on some tickets. (3) MOONSHINER HANOVER has early speed and form; hard to toss. (9) TOP FLIGHT ANGEL doesn’t entice in the top spot but has the early speed to gain position and get into the exotics.
Race 6
(2) HAYDEN HANOVER lucked into what looks like the softer of the two Meadowlands Pace eliminations. Somebeachsomewhere colt just missed in a 1:47 mile with Lasix added last time and he should be cutting the fractions or sitting pretty in the pocket this week. (5) NUTCRACKER SWEET hasn’t been able to get over the top lately but has been right there with the best in this division every week. (7) THINKBIG DREAMBIG has been rolling along versus cheaper. Can he handle this jump up against the big boys? (6) STAY HUNGRY is as dangerous as they come if sitting behind live cover.
Race 7
In a wide-open race where I don’t have a strong opinion, (6) FURY ROAD has the early speed to avoid trouble in this bulky 12-horse field and I like the driver change back to Andy McCarthy. (3) LUCKY AVA has been one of the best fillies in New York and she is another that should be close to the action. (2) BASQUIAT has been handled patiently thus far in 2018 while performing OK. Cantab Hall-sired filly has some talent. (9) REPENTANCE & (10) WHAT A KNOCKOUT are both coming off wins but have to overcome a tough draw.
Race 8
In what amounts to an evenly matched four-horse race on paper, I’d love to reserve judgement until I can see the odds board as the gate is moving. Unfortunately, I’m forced into an early decision. Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong in eliminations for (2) COURTLY CHOICE. In this abbreviated field on a mile track, driver David Miller can bide his time and pounce in the lane. (8) DORSODURO HANOVER came up only a length short in the Hempt and now he adds Lasix. I wouldn’t be shocked if he made the front and was allowed to set a soft pace. (1) AMERICAN HISTORY raced well in that 1:47 win last time but seems likely to get overbet now. (3) JIMMY FREIGHT merits serious consideration off what he has done so far. I just have a feeling he will also take too much money at the windows.
Race 9
(3) CLOSEAU HANOVER paced home in 26 3/5 to finish sixth in 1:49 2/5 behind a 1:48 3/5 mile last week in this class off a four-week break. With that start under his belt and Gingras jumping in the bike, I’m expecting a strong performance. (9) SAMS TRIPLE CROWN has been racing well week after week in this class and Callahan has always gotten along well with him. (4) QUALITY BUD was done in by a tough trip but remains sharp. (2) DURANT gets into this field on a sub-condition and has done well here in the past.
Race 10
In a race with loads of early speed, perhaps (2) DONTTELLMEAGAIN can pull off the upset. He held his own versus older foes in the Franklin while trying to close on a track that isn’t conducive to that style. If Tetrick can set him up second or third-over, why can’t he win? (10) HIGHALATOR is the sharpest and perhaps best horse in the race, but he is stuck in post 10; mixed feelings. (8) FILIBUSTER HANOVER took on the best in the Franklin and came up a couple of lengths short. That said, he really did get away with reasonable fractions and probably should have finished better; again, mixed feelings. (4) MAC’S JACKPOT tends to chug along and pick up the pieces. If the speed outburst I’m expecting develops, he could be along for an exotics spot at a big price. (1) MISO FAST qualified back nicely and has a couple of Graduate wins in this series.
Race 11
(3) GRIFFON HANOVER drops back down and picks up Brett Miller this week. Let’s look for an aggressive steer. (2) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT raced well after moving up to this class last time and now adds Tetrick to the bike. (1) GO BIG SPENDER is another horse coming off a good effort and adding a Hall of Fame driver.
Race 12
(5) PRO BEACH qualified back in good order behind a fired up Miso Fast. That effort should have him tight and ready to face this field. (2) WHEELS ON FIRE has plenty of early speed and form; must use. (3) LETS ROLL has clear ability but does face some decent foes in the top pair. (1) CAPTAIN AMERICA moves into the Burke barn.
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