Meadowlands: Saturday 7/6 Analysis
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 63 - 208 / $319.60 (-$96.40)
BEST BETS: 9 - 15 / $33.20 (+$3.20)
Best Bet: CAPTAIN CRUNCH (7th)
Spot Play: LATHER UP (10th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6 / ALL / 3 / 2,4 = $20
Race 1 – Non-winners $17,500 in last 5 starts - $25K GTD Pick 5
(4) PRINCE OF TIDES has found himself lately for trainer Ross Croghan and no horse has come close to him in his last three starts. Anything close to his performance last week and he’s sitting in the winner’s circle again. (7) SPORTS COLUMN has been facing some solid competition out of town. He could be an interesting player at a price if put in play early. (8) WHEELS ON FIRE seems like a lock to leave the gate and if he gets the top easily, things should work out nicely. (1) IDEAL FEELING is off a career best mile and I’m not yet convinced he can do it again.
Race 2 – Preferred Handicap
(2) WESTERN JOE was used up early from an outside post last time out. He should be able to sit close from this spot and have the opportunity to pull off a minor upset. (7) NONE BETTOR A has lived up to his name in 2019 by winning just about every race, but I don’t see him worth the odds-on price he’ll offer. (5) TRUMP NATION will sit back and pounce late, so it all comes down to the pace of the race. (4) MCTHRILLER finally draws well and could be leaving hard.
Race 3 – Non-winners $12,500 in last 5 starts
(9) ON DUTY has been in against some top-notch foes and when he finally dropped to the conditioned ranks last week he was stuck outside. The post stinks again here but the class relief might be enough to make a difference. (8) ROCK THE NITE is also down in class and has raced well here in the past. (1) SAMS CHAMP A has found himself in recent weeks and looks sharp enough to handle the class jump. (6) STONEDUST should be able to make the front and could get lucky.
Race 4- Reynolds Memorial – 3YOF
(4) PRINCESS DEO is a filly I always thought had ability but she returned this year with a bit of a breaking issue. Nifty Norman added hobbles and her troubles seem to be behind her now, so I’ll roll the dice with her here. (1) SENSIBILITY comes off a nice win at Buffalo in a NYSS race and has done well on the big track in the past. (8) SPECIAL HONOR seems likely to be heading to the front and in a questionable field like this she could go a long way. (3) SWIZZLE STICKS is another with early speed that should get into the lower exotics at a decent price.
Race 5 – Reynolds Memorial – 3YOF
I really tried to make a case against (8) EVIDENT BEAUTY, who will be a heavy favorite despite missing five weeks of action, but even if she is raced very conservatively and sitting seventh at the head of the late, which of these horses can really hold off her late kick? (7) STARITA missed a bunch of time herself and had no cobwebs in that 1:53 4/5 win last time. She should have a huge jump on the favorite tactically. (3) AMERICAN KRONOS is another with early speed that should be in play. (5) BEAUTIFUL SIN continues to try to make back some of that $480,000 purchase price, though at the very least it will come when she switches careers to mommy down the road.
Race 6 – Graduate Trot Final
All eyes will be on (4) ATLANTA here as the odds-on choice with a perfect 5-for-5 record in 2019, but I like my 3-5 or lower picks to really be “locks” on paper and she just isn’t versus this talented field. Let’s go with (9) SIX PACK to pull off the upset. He’s been brought along slowly this year by trainer/driver Ake Svanstedt and put in his best mile to date in his last start. I can’t say with certainty he’ll win, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t offer up a monster effort. (5) CRYSTAL FASHION has yet to pop that big 1:50 mile we saw as a 3-year-old, but this looks like a prime spot where driver Tim Tetrick can range up behind cover from a horse like (3) FIFTYDALLARBILL and pounce. The latter is coming off a career mile and rarely puts in a bad race; contender.
Race 7 – Meadowlands Pace 1st Elimination
(1) CAPTAIN CRUNCH proved best in the North America Cup and with selection of post position on the line, I don’t see any circumstance where he isn’t controlling the action. (4) WORKIN ONA MYSTERY was third behind “Crunch” in the NA Cup and you can certainly argue he had the tougher trip. He’s the most obvious upset player. (6) CAPTAIN AHAB has been kept on the sidelines to prepare for this spot and I do expect his best mile to date. (2) U S CAPTAIN rides a four-race winning streak into the eliminations but is tackling a different level of horse now.
Race 8 – Meadowlands Pace 2nd Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4
(4) CAPTAIN TREVOR came up big in the Hempt consolation, though he wasn’t facing the toughest field. He’ll be put in play this week and have every chance to upset (6) BETTOR’S WISH, who will be heavily favored off a troubled-trip second in the NA Cup. (5) HURRIKANE EMPEROR took his shot in the Hempt and was turned aside. I need to see more before backing him. (2) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH is an underneath play only for me.
Race 9 – Reynolds Memorial – 3YOF
This race is a complete crapshoot and as you can see in my Pick 4 ticket above, I’m pressing the ALL button. (5) GOLDEN TRICKS has found herself in recent weeks for Svanstedt and seems worth a shot on the class hike. (2) JEZZYS LEGACY is a well-bred filly trying her luck in stakes competition after a convincing score; could step up. (9) MILLIES POSSESION is perfect in five career starts and will be a heavy favorite despite the outside post, four weeks off and final times which don’t jump off the page versus her competition. (8) ASIAGO has early speed and form; clear player. (3) SISTER’S PROMISE raced ok coming back from a month on the sidelines and could show more now.
Race 10 – Graduate Pace Final
(3) LATHER UP doesn’t do well at Pocono as he has bobbled or made a break in nearly every start over that surface. Now back at The Big M where he won a Graduate leg earlier this year, and offering what could be between 6-1 and 10-1, I’m all in. (5) THE DOWNTOWN BUS is another potential value play in the field despite coming off a career best 1:48 win because Tetrick opted elsewhere. (9) JIMMY FREIGHT gets stuck outside but has the early zip to overcome. Whether he can win depends on how many others push him in the first quarter, and on paper there seems to be plenty of speed. (2) ALWAYS A PRINCE came up with a monster 1:47 3/5 win last time. This horse is freaky fast and new driver Brian Sears could be the perfect fit. Morning line favorite (4) THIS IS THE PLAN, (6) COURTLY CHOICE and (1) BACKSTREET SHADOW are all players as well in this interesting affair.
Race 11 – Mr Muscleman
(4) CRUZADO DELA NOCHE is far and away the best horse in this race and Sears only needs to keep him closer early to win. (2) RICH AND MISERABLE has been nearly unstoppable in 2019, with his only recent loss coming to the great mare Hannelore Hanover. (6) YES MICKEY has been a different horse with Dexter Dunn at the control but unfortunately he opted for (5) PINKMAN, so we’ll have to see what Svanstedt can get out of him. The latter has the speed but I like him better underneath.