Meadowlands: Saturday 7/14 Analysis
Best Bet: EVALUATE (4th)
Spot Play: YOU KNOW YOU DO (6th)
Race 3 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 73 - 200 / $354.20 (-$45.80)
BEST BETS: 12 - 19 / $38.20 (+$.20)
Race 1
(5) EMOTICON HANOVER lucks-out to avoid Hannelore Hanover this week and should be heading down the road. (2) BARN BELLA got back on track with an open-length win most recently. Mare is an amazing 19 for 30 lifetime. (1) BROADWAY DONNA is certainly capable of putting up an effort that would win this race.
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Race 2
(4) HANNELORE HANOVER is perfect in five starts this year and shouldn’t meet much resistance against only mares this week. (7) CELEBRITY RUTH can’t be faulted for finishing third behind Hannelore and a resurgent Pinkman last time. Other than a rare miscue in the Armbro Flight, she’s been super this year. (1) ICE ATTRACTION can save ground and sneak into the lower exotics.
Race 3
(6) PHAETOSIVE is likely getting another off the pace trip here, which makes me slightly nervous. That said, I believe she is the best filly in this field and should be able to overcome. (5) SEVIYORUM set the Philadelphia track record on July 3 and is the other obvious contender. (7) WHAT A KNOCKOUT rolled down the road two starts back and could try those tactics here.
Race 4
(1) EVALUATE had a brutal trip in the Beal final but all of his previous efforts were sharp. I’m expecting to see an aggressive start off the gate and a quick brush to the front somewhere on the backstretch. (5) CLASSICHAP finally got into the win column with a big mile last time. The talent is there but he has some catching up to do. (2) WOLFGANG lost some training time due to a minor procedure. His return qualifier was super and I’m sure he’ll bring a solid performance.
Race 5
(5) KISSIN IN THE SAND is coming off a spectacular performance in the Lynch and clearly stamped herself as the Queen of the division. (7) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL put in a big mile in defeat to the top choice last time. I’m slightly concerned that she won’t like the extra distance on Saturday. (3) I’M TRIGGER HAPPY is unlikely to win but could save ground and get into the exotics at a big price. (12) WISDOM TREE has been super in NYSS action and romped in the Nadia Lobell. She’s a clear threat if she can overcome the second tier.
Race 6
(3) YOU KNOW YOU DO received the perfect tightener for this race when he chased Muscle Diamond home in a 1:50 1/5 mile on June 29. Now with a more regular pattern of racing every two weeks, I’m expecting a top performance. (8) SIX PACK suffered his first defeat in the Beal last time but was hardly disgraced. Speedy son of Muscle Mass should be leaving off the gate and have a major say in the outcome. (2) FOURTH DIMENSION came into the year as the divisional leader. With no wins and a break in two starts this will be a big test for him.
Race 7
(9) ARIANA G blazed down the road in the Graduate last week and just seems too fast for these right now. (1) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS has been brought along easily in his 4-year-old season and that approach has paid off with three wins in as many starts. I’m not sure he can best the top pick but you never know until you try. (5) INTERNATIONAL MONI took his shot and just couldn’t clear Ariana G last time. He can play with these given a better trip.
Race 8
(3) AMERICAN HISTORY has displayed the ability to leave fast and still finish his miles. In a race that seems to have a handful of contenders, I’m always on board with taking the fastest horse at what should be a fair price. (5) COURTLY CHOICE finally had a bit of luck (or no misfortune) in an elimination and made this rich final. He’s very dangerous and must be included on most pick four tickets. (10) DORSODURO HANOVER was fast off the gate in his elimination but conceded when he rightfully took a tuck in fourth. I don’t think he is the best horse in the race but he’ll offer a big price and could potentially make the front. (1) STAY HUNGRY is a great horse off a trip and if he gets one on Saturday he’ll likely win.
Race 9
(4) SHARTIN N has already proven that she is the best older pacing mare. I’m slightly concerned that the bulky field is not ideal for the sometimes keyed-up Jim King Jr trainee, but I just don’t see another mare to hang my hat on. (5) L A DELIGHT was used early and failed to rally last time. With a smooth trip she could get a nice piece here. (8) PURE COUNTRY qualified back nicely and maybe new driver Brian Sears can work some magic. (12) CAVIART ALLY might benefit from being in the second tier this week as it will force her to rally from off the pace.
Race 10
Things just didn’t go right for (3) HEAVEN ROCKS A in the Ben Franklin final. I’m willing to draw a line through that performance and focus on his prior fine form. The switch to the big track on Saturday should benefit this Down Under import that tends to race from off the pace. (2) MACH IT SO has a 4-2-1-1 record over this track since late 2016 and won the Haughton last year. Don’t be surprised if he finds his form after two subpar efforts. (5) MCWICKED was super at Pocono, though the trip was ideal in the Franklin final. I believe he is the one to beat but I’m not ready to take a short price. (8) SINTRA is as fast as any in this field but may have to pass too many to win.
Race 11
(7) HURRICANE BEACH has always been a fast horse but couldn’t put it all together. He got in the win column with Lasix added last week at Philly and should be primed for another big effort prior to selling on Sunday in the Meadowlands Summer Mixed Sale. (6) CLOUSEAU HANOVER took a shot on the rim and got hung out last Saturday. He should contend with a smoother trip. (2) MOTOWN N seems to be fast enough to make some noise and does have a 10 for 34 career record. (5) QUALITY BUD could be on the lead in a hurry this week and sitting a good trip. (1) MORE DRAGON comes off a win and can compete on his best.
Race 12
(2) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP chased top 3-year-old Atlanta around the track in her last two starts and understandably finished second. Talented filly from the Svanstedt barn seems capable of an upset. (7) MANCHEGO showed kinks in her armor for the first time in her career when trying to challenge first-over in the Beal. She’s still the one to beat tonight but no longer indestructible. (6) LIVE LAUGH LOVE has posted a strong 6-5-1-0 record in 2018 but steps way up in class now.
Race 13
(5) WILD BILL, once a highly regarded 2-year-old before getting injured, finally returned to the track and proved very game in victory on July 4. He’ll get tested more tonight but could be up to the task. (1) CAPTAIN DEO finished third to a pair in the Meadowlands Pace final tonight in his last try versus conditioned foes and romped in his prior attempt at that level. (3) ROCK LIGHTS exits Sire Stakes competition and seems worth consideration underneath.
Race 14
(5) MAJOR WAR fired down the road in 1:49 4/5 in his last try in the NW8500 class. Veteran was written into this class tonight on a sub-condition. (6) SILVER FOX J rallied nicely from post 10 most recently and like the top choice drops down a level. (8) BRUCE’S MAGIC completes the top three of class-droppers. Six-year-old is capable on his best days. (3) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT has been racing well in this class and is worth a look in his final start before selling on Sunday.
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