Meadowlands: Saturday 7/13 Analysis
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 72 - 233 / $400.00 (-$66.00)
BEST BETS: 11 - 17 / $39.80 (+$5.80)
Best Bet: MILLIES POSSESION (11TH Race)
Spot Play: GREEN MANALISHI S (3RD Race)
Race 1: $50,000 Guaranteed Pick-5 Pool; Race 6: $100,000 Guaranteed Pick-4 Pool; Race 10: $50,000 Guaranteed Pick-4 Pool
Race 1 – Non-winners of $20,000 in last 5 starts
(7) MISO FAST aimed high in the Ben Franklin last time and wasn’t quite up to it from an outside post. Speedy 5-year-old has done well here in the past and has a shot to pull off an upset. (8) HAYDEN HANOVER put up a career best mile last week here and speed does tend to hold up in the warm weather. (9) TRUMP NATION has the ability to win but may be too far back due to his lack of early speed. (3) IDEAL FEELING has found himself in recent weeks but lands in a tough spot.
[MEADOWLANDS PACE: Free Harness Eye PPs, 10% Rebate on WIN wagers & Live Video for the entire Meadowlands Pace card on Saturday.]
Race 2 – Del Miller Memorial
(2) BEAUTIFUL SIN clearly lacked a stretch punch last time, but that was her first start in four weeks. Former high-priced yearling could be tighter and have upset on her mind tonight. (5) EVIDENT BEAUTY is another who clearly came up short last time. I think we’ll learn a lot about her tonight and I’m not willing to take chances at a short price. (3) SONNET GRACE is a dangerous commodity if she puts it all together.
Race 3 – Stanley Dancer Memorial
(4) GREEN MANALISHI S kept his act together in the Beal and put in a solid mile. In a field without a clear-cut standout, I expect he’ll shine this week as a lead-up to the Hambletonian. (5) SUMMIT IN SIGHT made a miscue last time but let’s not give up on him that quickly. He’s worth a look in the post parade. (2) SWANDRE THE GIANT has the early speed to be a factor, especially if the track favors horses on the lead.
Race 4 – Miss Versatility
(7) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP only has three starts this year and while you don’t see any wins, were any of those performances really bad? Actually, they all look good. She’ll be a big price here with Svanstedt driving and might just have a surprise in store for the group. (3) DARLING MEARAS S came up with the mile of her life last week and if she can repeat it, they may just be racing for second. (4) HANNELORE HANOVER rebounded from a tough effort in the Armbro Flight last time but really beat a weak field. I’m not sure she is worth a potentially low price this week.
Race 5 – Stanley Dancer
(7) GREENSHOE has looked like the best 3-year-old trotter in the country every time he has stepped on the track and despite catching the tougher division of the Dancer and the outside post, I don’t see a way to pick against him. (1) DON’T LET’EM is my second choice on the Road to the Hambletonian right now and nothing I saw in his recent qualifier makes me think otherwise. (6) SOUTHWIND AVENGER did good work in Canada and now gets to show if he can compete on this level. He could have an edge here if he guns to the front. (3) PILOT DISCRETION still has something to prove in my eyes and I’m going to pass this week as he could be second choice.
Race 6 – Golden Girls
This race kicks off a $100,000 Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 4 and while many will be singling Shartin N, I’m not in that boat. Watching (3) KISSIN IN THE SAND qualify last Saturday, I couldn’t help but notice that she looked like the mare I saw back in early May. With Lasix added, she finished up with plenty left. I’m not sure if she is ready for (4) SHARTIN N, but the price should be good enough to take that chance. The latter is 9 for 10 on the year and the leader for Horse of the Year right now. She’s a must-use. (10) CAVIART ALLY might be a sketchy play normally from post 10, but with this race going an extra 1/8-mile, she’ll have a much easier time making the front. She’s proven herself this year and deserves serious consideration. (11) BETTOR JOY N is still waiting for that big mile but I’m not convinced it is coming here. (1) RECLAMATION is very sharp and was a good second to Shartin last time.
Race 7 – Hambletonian Maturity
I’ve tried to beat (4) ATLANTA time and again this year with no success. She simply finds a way by grinding down her foes with a powerful late rally. The extra distance in this race should only help her cause. (5) MANCHEGO has shown some serious signs of life since adding Lasix but now she loses it here due to the race conditions. While I have mixed feelings because of the lack of the medication, I do think she is sitting on a big mile. (11) SIX PACK gave it his all but just couldn’t withstand the top pick in the Graduate final and I’m worried about the trip he’ll get here from the second tier. (3) FIFTYDALLARBILL has some early speed in his arsenal and could be a sneaky upset player due to being at the right place at the right time.
Race 8 – Meadowlands Pace
On paper most will say this is a three-horse race but I feel best with (9) WORKIN ONA MYSTERY and (1) CAPTAIN CRUNCH. For the sake of value, I prefer the former at what should be 4 or 5-1. He lost by less than two lengths in the NA Cup despite being used very hard and got a nice easy mile in the Pace Elims last week. I expect driver Tim Tetrick will have him forwardly placed and in position to win. The latter is the top dog right now in the division and is impossible to leave off your tickets despite what could be a price just over even money. (4) CAPTAIN AHAB displayed some early speed last time but lacked a late kick. After missing more than a month of action, he could be much tighter now; the class is there. (4) BETTOR’S WISH has done almost everything right but I’m not convinced. If he beats me at about 2-1, so be it.
Race 9 – Haughton Memorial
(10) THIS IS THE PLAN is firing on all cylinders right now and post 10 should be no problem for this speedster with the extra run into the first turn. He’ll provide some value and is clearly viable as a win candidate. (4) ALWAYS A PRINCE reunites with Miller, who drove him perfectly to a career best mile two starts back. This guy has high speed and seemingly could live on the rim and keep going. (5) LATHER UP equaled the fastest mile in history last week and he is clearly capable of posting another big effort. (6) MCWICKED hasn’t seemed like the same horse yet this year and I’m worried about traffic trouble for him in this bulky field, but you know he’ll be coming late.
Race 10 – Mistletoe Shalee
Despite winning the Lynch at Pocono, (8) STONEBRIDGE SOUL might not get the respect she deserves here. She should make the top easily enough and be in prime position to win. (2) WARRAWEE UBEAUT didn’t exactly get the best trip in the Lynch. She’s still the one to beat here but if you can’t get at least 8-5, the price won’t be worth the risk. (6) PHILLY HANOVER had no chance in the Lynch final. This filly has talent and should be a healthy price. (3) TALL DRINK HANOVER was stuck in post 9 for the Lynch final. She’ll be much closer to the action here.
Race 11 – Del Miller Memorial
(3) MILLIES POSSESION proved herself as a legitimate contender to not only win here but perhaps do some damage in the Hambletonian Oaks. I’m a believer now. (6) THE ICE DUTCHESS came up short in her last start. Does she show up ready to roll this time? (7) STARITA was driven like a winner last time and she delivered. She’ll have to go much faster to win this week.
Race 12 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5 starts
(2) STAG PARTY comes down to New Jersey to add Lasix after what has been a disappointing start to his 3-year-old campaign. Normally I’d see this race as a stepping stone for something else, but he needs a big mile to get back on track. (8) SWEET ROCK comes off a nice mile and has the class to show up with a top effort. (5) SAMS A CHAMP A has been racing very well and adds Tetrick. (3) LYONS STEEL put up a career best last time and might need even better this week.
Race 13 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5 starts
(8) PYRO comes into town sharp and should be able to take charge in this spot. (4) BACKSTREET LAWYER is clearly a player when at this level; only needs a decent trip. (7) ODDS ON LAUDERDALE might need a start, though I liked the qualifier. (1) MANGOGH hasn’t lived up to expectations. Maybe the softer competition will help.