Meadowlands: Saturday 5/4 Analysis
Best Bet: DONTTELLMEAGAIN (5th)
Spot Play: DASH OF DANGER (6th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 233 - 724 / $1417.30 (-$30.70)
BEST BETS: 16 - 57 / $54.60 (-$59.40)
Race 1
(5) WISE IMAGE was raced from the back last week but that isn’t his game. With that start under his belt and an improved post tonight, I’m expecting to see early speed. (3) MR CARROTTS drops down to a spot where you would expect him to awaken. (1) WESTERN ROCKSTAR A had no shot last time from an outside post and took some air in his previous start. Veteran could be a player here at a decent price. (7) TALENT SOUP came up empty in his first start for this barn; more now?
Race 2
(6) SHARP ACTION MONEY was out-kicked in the stretch last time but he did lose to one sharp and one quality foe. More importantly, that was his first non-break line in quite some time. I think we’ll see a peak effort tonight. (2) NO MAS AMOR stepped up with some big miles last year but I’m inclined to give him one start before using him on top. (1) GOLDBERG hasn’t impressed me in his two starts here lately but he is fast enough to win.
Race 3
(7) MACH ONE gets a big driver switch to Dunn this week and lands in a nice spot in this Trackmaster race. (5) KIWI IDEAL N is another horse getting a major driver change. He’ll likely be firing off the gate. (4) ALWAYS A DIAMOND proved that he is a trip horse last week. He’s sharp enough to win if things go his way. (1) BOOGIE NIGHTS has a win and a second in this class the last two weeks; hard to toss.
Race 4
(6) CAVIART ROCKLAND finished up willingly when asked in mid-stretch last week. Many of the starters from this barn have been firing fresh and we should get a price here. (5) PLAY TIMES OVER rallied nicely to just miss behind (7) WESTERN EXPOSURE, who had a perfect trip last time. Both are contenders here. (3) LIVE LUCKY was in the photo with #s 5 and 7 last Saturday and he does have an early speed advantage in this spot over some others.
Race 5
(2) DONTTELLMEAGAIN was probably a bit short but he really had no shot in the Golden Receiver trying to rally from behind a pedestrian pace. He gets a nice inside post now and faces a slightly easier group overall. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t race BIG and surprised if he loses. (5) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP does his best work near the front and hopefully will be forwardly placed at a decent price here. (6) SWEET ROCK was done in by a bad post last time. He figures here with a decent trip. (3) DEALT A WINNER finds his nose on the gate this time and could have different tactics.
Race 6
(2) DASH OF DANGER took a shot last week and tired from an outside post. Six-year-old is very comfortable at this level and he gets a top driver along with a good post here; count me in! (7) ROUGH ODDS is back down at his best level and would be no surprise. (6) JK PARLAY has speed and form; very playable. (4) INCREDIBLE SHARK lured Tetrick off my top pick if that means something to you.
Race 7
(5) DORSODURO HANOVER was saddled with two bad posts in qualifying action and still picked up his game last week with a solid second behind a runaway winner in Done Well on a day when wind was a major factor. I’ll give him the slight edge over stablemate (3) THIS IS THE PLAN, who did his best to close from the George Washington Bridge to no avail last Saturday. (12) THE DOWNTOWN BUS will have to navigate traffic from the second tier but seems capable if at his best.
Race 8
(1) NEW TALENT gets a huge break in class here and I’m expecting him to respond accordingly. (9) NONE THE BETTOR A came up with a monster mile last week. Can he repeat that? (8) K RYAN BLUECHIP did what he does well and grinded out a second-place finish most recently; always a threat.
Race 9
(5) WILL TAKE CHARGE never seems to get respect in these big races but is typically competitive. He finished second in the Cashman and Cutler here last year and seems to be coming into form for this race. (3) CRUZADO DELA NOCHE posted a sharp qualifier two back and was well within himself last week following horses. I’m using him on all multi-race tickets here along with the top pick. (11) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS is a talented horse I’ve always expected to break out at some point with a monster year. He comes in off two sharp qualifiers but has some work to do from the second tier. (2) FIFTYDALLARBILL showed he could play with the big boys last year in the 3-year-old ranks. How does he handle the task tonight versus older company? (1) PINMAN got away with soft fractions in his lone victory of the year last week. I need to see a big mile for him before I would take a potentially shorter price.
Race 10
(9) MUSIC IS ART won a NW18000 race at Pocono five starts back and gets into this event under the AE condition. His comeback race from a near five month break is hard to get excited about, but there is no way he was ready for a 1:49 mile after the time off. I’m expecting him to show more tonight. (4) STONEDUST drops for the second straight week in search of better results and may just get it. (1) SAMS A CHAMP A & (2) BACKSTREET LAWYER have both finished second by a nose recently in this condition.
Race 11
I’ll definitely be going two deep in the Pick 4 here as I had a tough time deciding between (4) DONE WELL and (2) COURTLY CHOICE. The former is coming off an eye-popping 1:50 4/5 qualifying win that was much more like a 1:48 and change mile with a strong headwind in the stretch. The latter qualified equally impressively in 1:50 4/5 at Mohawk and in my opinion was the best 3-year-old last year. (6) THINKBIG DREAMBIG has done good enough work in the morning to think he can step up but I’d want double-digit odds to consider him. (8) ALWAYS A PRINCE went a solid mile in his return to the races and his 19 wins in 23 starts certainly sticks out. This is no easy spot, though.
Race 12
(4) ANOTHER DAILY COPY double-drops in class from the last time he was here. Now with a pair of starts under his belt, he should be ready to roll. (1) LIFE HAPPENED hasn’t been very good lately but does get some class relief of his own. (2) STATEMENT MADE A moves into a new barn and could turn it around.
Race 13
(2) TALK SHOW took a shot last week on the engine and almost succeeded. I’ll give him another shot versus a weak field. (4) CAMWISER has been racing well of late and seems like a must use. (7) MAY I CRUISE WEST made a bold move and tired in his only recent non-amateur race. I’m sure Dunn will have him in play. (1) SUPER S YZERMAN gets a new driver and could show more.