Meadowlands: Saturday 4/13 Analysis
Best Bet: WHEELS ON FIRE (2nd)
Spot Play: OUTKAST BLUE CHIP (5th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 208 - 648 / $1267.30 (-$28.70)
BEST BETS: 16 - 51 / $54.60 (-$47.40)
Race 1
(5) ABIGAL DAWN wasn’t overly impressive in her qualifier but I kind of like that she was under urging since she has shown a breaking issue in the past. Maybe she is finally ready to turn the corner versus a soft group. (1) ODDS ON NAPLES comes off a pair of qualifiers down in Florida and I’m not really sure what to expect; watching her in the post parade. (8) TRIPLE DIP seems to be fast enough and should offer value with the trainer in the bike.
Race 2
(4) WHEELS ON FIRE put up a 1:49 1/5 win after taking a handful of months off. It’s hard to look past him tonight. (1) SAMS A CHAMP A understandably found the foes in the Levy series too tough. This is far from an easy group but maybe the switch to the big track will help. (3) DRAGON TIME has good speed and form; using underneath.
Race 3
(5) ABRAHAM N seems to have one good move in him and should be able to wait and pounce moving to the bigger track tonight versus a lackluster group. (1) DALTON DID IT finally draws well here after getting 8 and 10 in two starts. Don’t be shocked if he wakes up a bit. (2) NAMEISONTHEHALTER was parked from an outside post last Saturday. He should get a better trip this week.
Race 4
(1) CENTURY CHURCHILL seems to be sitting on a win and couldn’t ask for a much easier spot. (5) MAC ANOVER comes off a throw-out line in the amateur ranks last time and really didn’t get involved in his prior try after a slow start. He could be a player here if kept in striking position. (3) DUCKIES DYNASTY takes the same class drop as the top two and would be no surprise. (8) TALK SHOW raced better last week and there is certainly the possibility that he could awaken at a price.
Race 5
(2) OUTKAST BLUE CHIP drops in for a claiming tag for the first time in his career and it is clear his connections are looking to part ways. I have to think he’ll be very live with a claim a reasonable possibility. (7) FOUR STACES has climbed the ladder week after week without an issue. The main problems he faces tonight is the amount of early speed players which may force him to work hard to get anywhere near the front. (5) SPAGHETTI EDDIE won off the claim in a quick time. (8) JK PARLAY is a solid horse stuck in a bad spot.
Race 6
(8) BETTOR’S EDGE didn’t do anything spectacular in his qualifier but did pace home willingly into a quick final quarter. Multi-millionaire has a huge class edge and is capable of firing fresh off the bench. (3) TALANT SOUP comes off a win and now moves into the Burke barn and adds Gingras. This guy has shown talent in the past and could go a big mile on the barn change. (1) DEPENDLEBURY A should be plenty comfortable at this level but is not quite as talented as either of the top two.
Race 7
(6) EVER AGAIN has been keeping some strong company in recent weeks and finally finds a spot where he can take charge. (5) GRIFFON HANOVER has been racing better of late and the switch to Miller in the bike makes him intriguing. (3) DUBIOUS CLAIM probably needs a trip to win but certainly should be involved at some point.
Race 8
(6) HIGHALATOR has reeled off consecutive wins here and seems best again unless one of these is ready to fire a big shot. (5) BAGS TO RICHES has been in bad spots from outside posts while facing the best at Dover. He should be put in play here. (4) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP qualified back well enough. Classy veteran is more than capable if ready for a top effort.
Race 9
(2) BILLY BADGER N was a bit of a hanger when here earlier this year, but he was facing better in those races. His losses from outside posts recently on the half-mile tracks can be overlooked. I’ll take a shot. (10) PLAY JET RAY wasn’t done any favors with post 10 but he does have enough early speed to make the top. (3) QUALITY CLOSER dealt with traffic last time. He’s still sharp enough to win. (4) MINDTRIP is supposed to wake up in a spot like this one, but he just hasn’t been the same horse since the claim.
Race 10
(4) BACKSTREET LAWYER comes off a big mile last week where he took plenty of air and fought gamely to the wire. Four-year-old could still be getting better. (3) WHITTAKER N dropped out of the Levy series and took care of business last week. He was David Miller’s choice over a few others including the top pick. (7) OCEAN COLONY finished with pace and had no shot after a slow third quarter; not impossible.
Race 11
(10) UFFIZI is going to need some luck to win coming off a blah qualifier after four months away from the races, but none of these horses look particularly scary on paper and he is more than capable of making a big move. (5) WESTERN REDHOT won in this class a week ago after a ground-saving trip. (8) DAVID THE SAINT rallied nicely last Saturday for third despite a dull flow. (9) ABBEYLARA can take some air and fight on.
Race 12
(1) ROGER MACH EM finds a completely lifeless field and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joe Hanney press on the gas from the start and see how far this 8-year-old can take him. (5) HEARTLAND REVENUE finally gets a decent mid-pack post after being stuck outside week after week. (3) ELECTROFIRE burned money as the favorite last time; another chance?
Race 13
(9) DAYLYN HORIZON has been racing better the last couple of weeks with only minor checks to show for it. He seems worth a shot in a very dull field. (7) OH MY JOEPA worked a good trip into a win last time but may be an underlay now. (2) JUST N BERLANDER is capable on his best day if he can save ground and find a seam. (6) DANCING RUSTY has early speed and was Marcus Miller’s choice over my top pick.