Meadowlands: Saturday 3/7 Analysis

MEET STATS: 210-48-43-36 / $283.20 (-$136.80)
BEST BETS: 16-6-2-0 / $26.60 (-$5.40)
BEST BET: ROUGH ODDS (6th)
SPOT PLAY: PIERCEWAVE HANOVER (2nd)

Race 1 – Leap Year Conso. – TM 74.5 or less - **$40K GTD Pick 5**

(4) DRAMATIC POINT was extremely disappointing as the 3-2 favorite last week. I’m going to hang around one more week as long as the potential return doubles. (7) TAILGUNNER HANOVER tends to perform well in this class but I’d prefer if he had an inside post. (5) MODERN YANKEE raced evenly last time after missing four months of action; could improve. (9) ATOMIC REI is a capable post from a difficult post; needs a clean trip.

Race 2 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5

(2) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER hasn’t been super-sharp but hasn’t been awful either. Classy veteran takes a significant drop to the bottom condition and trainer Derue gets out of the bike for Callahan; really should awaken. (2) LASA DIDA LADY took the plunge to this level last week and perked up with a good mile. That said, she shows breaks in two of her lastfour starts. (4) CHIEF JUSTICE has a decent late kick if the race sets up properly.

Race 3 – Non-winners $5,000 in last 5

(5) CAPTAIN TREVOR was a solid second behind a potential killer in The Devils Own N last week (see race 5). This isn’t the easiest NW5000 field but he still sticks out. (2) ALTA LEROY N gets post and class relief here, and you know the price will be good with Dauplaise driving. (4) LIVE ON was a good third at this level two starts back. (1) STENDAHL HANOVER is another class-dropper who wouldn’t be a surprise on the win end if the top pick falters.

Race 4 – Non-winners $22,500 in last 5 – Pick 6

(5) COVERED BRIDGE has turned into a monster for new trainer Ron Burke and there is no reason to believe his reign of terror over his competition will end this week. (4) BELL I NO has been like an ATM thus far in 2020. He shows up at the track and his owner gets a nice piece of cash. (8) SINTRA qualified impressively as he preps for the Borgata series. He’s likely going to be closing from the outside post and may have too much to do late. (1) WESTERN JOE is capable of winning at his best but may need a start.

Race 5 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5

(1) THE DEVILS OWN N rolled to an impressive victory in his first start of 2020 and you know he’s the real deal because his connections made payments to a bunch of major stakes. He takes a slight step up in company but should be able to handle it. (9) STONEDUST dropped to this condition last week and was a solid second in a very good field for the class. The outside post hurts but I can see Tetrick blasting off the gate here. (2) VETTEL N raced evenly in his first stateside start and could certainly show more now. (5) THE FIRST STEP changes classes but that 1:50 win last time translates well.

Race 6 – Non-winners $5,000 in last 5 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**

(5) ROUGH ODDS got unlucky last week to catch Always At My Place in the NW3500 class. He steps up tonight but now he’s the best horse in the race and should take care of business. (4) NASCAR SEELSTER gets a better post to work with this week and can get a big piece here, especially if he leaves. (2) WESTERN REDHOT moves to an inside post and has form.

Race 7 – Non-winners $7,500 in last 5

(7) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY finds the softest field he has seen in some time and I expect we’ll see big early speed from him. (10) HAYDEN HANOVER would destroy this field if he showed up with his A game. Even at less than 100% in terms of form, he’s a major player here. (2) CAPTAIN MULZAC and (4) DA MAGICIAN have perked up of late and might just be sharp enough to pick up an exacta finish.

Race 8 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5

(8) JACK’S SHADOW couldn’t have looked much better last time and is an obvious threat to repeat coming right back in the same class. (7) MISTER OHANZEE A was taken back to last at Dover most recently and had nowhere to race in the stretch while clearly finishing with more in the tank. This gelding has ability and should be ready for much more in his second start back from a six-week break, but Tetrick did choose the top pick. (5) TRUMP THAT doesn’t thrill me on the win end but should be in the exotics somewhere. (3) ANOTHER DAILY COPY comes out of a very good field and might find these more to his liking.

Race 9 – Non-winners 4-5 races or $50,000-$70,000 life

(7) HURRIKANE EMPEROR put in two solid qualifiers down at Pompano and might finally be ready to live up to the ability he showed early in his career. (5) ACTOR HANOVER went a decent mile in his first start in two months and could certainly move forward with that start in hand. (4) A MJAOR OMEN won in this class last time and should continue to offer a decent price. (8) J M MANDAMIN has raced well since entering the Bongiorno barn.

Race 10 – Leap Year Final – TM 74.5 or less - **$40K GTD Pick 4**

(4) MATEO is the one horse in the field that seems to step up with a big mile at times. I don’t love being on the favorite here, but I don’t really like many of the other choices. (7) OUR ART AND HEAVEN jumped up with a win last week and wouldn’t be a shock here. (6) TEST RIDE is clearly sharp and dangerous.

Race 11 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5

This is clearly the softer NW10000 of the two on the card. (3) DEALER’S TABLE drops a notch and picks up Tetrick. Perhaps he can wake this extremely fast gelding up. (5) WES DELIGHT returns from an almost 18-month layoff of two qualifiers, the last of which was quite good behind Caviart Ally. I’m not sure if he is ready for a big mile, but he is capable. (4) MAJOR POCKET A was used hard from post eight at Freehold in his first start on these shores. How good is he? I guess we’ll find out more tonight.

Race 12 – Trackmaster 79.5 or less

(1) BETTOR BB wasn’t going anywhere from post 8 at Yonkers in his first start for this barn. He lands in a decent spot here and could show a lot more. (2) DUCKIES DYNASTY has already proven he can win in this class and he might be the favorite. (9) TERROR HALL has some form but might be in trouble from the outside post with no real early speed in his arsenal.

Race 13 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5

(8) BRALEY HANOVER showed early speed and won in career best time when at the NW5000 level five starts back. Now he drops even lower and you’d have to expect a big mile. (1) VEGA STAR N also drops down and he gets post relief here. (3) WILLIE BOOTS doesn’t win often but should bring a solid effort in this basement class. (10) SANTAFE’S COACH is as good as any horse in the field. Unfortunately he’s stuck in post 10 and there is speed to his inside.