Meadowlands: Saturday 3/23 Analysis
Best Bet: ALL WEEK (1st)
Spot Play: QUALITY BUD (6th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 181 - 570 / $1059.10 (-$80.90)
BEST BETS: 15 - 45 / $51.40 (-$38.60)
Race 1
(7) ALL WEEK drops down to a winning level this week after a second behind a horse that would be 1-5 here. (3) SEEL THE DEAL N comes back from Monticello off a confidence-building win and gets in a lower class. (1) TJ BLAST has been racing fairly well at this level and he does get an inside post to work with that could make his early speed more valuable. (4) COWBOY TERRIER makes his debut for the Burke barn and seems worth consideration.
Race 2
(5) ITSNOPROBLEMMAN raced well after the claim but was stuck in post 10 last time. This looks like a better spot and the price should be fair. (2) FOUR STACES steps up in fine form and should be very competitive. (8) JK PARLAY is another sharp horse, but he is starting from an outside posts and likes to be near the front. That seems like a tough task with other early speeds signed on.
Race 3
This combined field is averaging $261 per start over their last five starts, so good luck finding much form to go off in the PP lines. (5) BOOGIE NIGHTS has some early speed in his arsenal and raced ok in his first start for this barn last week. I’ll take a shot. (2) VICTORYDAZE WILWIN tends to show up with a good mile here now and then; perfect spot. (10) KIWI IDEAL N raced well in this class from post 10 five starts back; guess that makes him a contender. (8) BAY RUM has been facing some much sharper foes of late.
Race 4
(3) WAY TO CLOSE was the top 2-year-old male pacer on the PA Fair circuit last year and he clocked a final time only a few fifths off the track record for freshman last year. Son of Western Terror seems to have some ability and should offer value. (8) ACTON HANOVER was a driving winner in his qualifier. Son of Sweet Lou was racing versus stakes company last year. (1) ODE TO GRAY was driven very aggressively and just missed last time; hard to toss. (4) AMERICAN WORLD wasn’t as good as I expected in his last start. Maybe he just needs a foundation.
Race 5
(8) RATHER SWELL steps up in price off the claim but doesn’t face a much tougher field. He’s too sharp to ignore. (3) DAVID THE SAINT moves to the inside of the gate and finds a prime spot to show some early speed at a price. (4) MAGNUM MIKE raced well from post 10 last time and only needs a decent setup to be a big threat. (9) POP POP JOE reunites with Gingras; pair teamed up for a pair of wins in February.
Race 6
(7) QUALITY BUD has displayed some signs of life in recent weeks including closing in 26 3/5 last time. This guy has dropped some big miles here in the past and the fact that trainer Carl Tirella calls on Yannick Gingras this week is key. (3) TALENT SOUP was sitting pretty behind a hot pace and made a break last time. I’m not sure if I have it in me to trust him again, but I know he can win. (1) REDONKULOUS & (2) EXIT CAM have little form but do get class relief.
Race 7
(4) LIFE HAPPENED stays in the same class where he tired after taking too much air last week. This field came up pretty soft and he should have a big chance. (6) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING has been stuck in outside posts at Yonkers and might have more to offer than one would expect with a quick glance at his lines. (2) TACT TATE N is certainly unreliable, but we all know he can win with a top effort.
Race 8
(5) HIGHALATOR has five wins in eight starts here the last two years and catches one of the easier fields he has seen at the Big M. With a more unknown driver in the bike, there could be some value on a horse that out-classes the competition. (1) BUSHWACKER & (1A) ROUGH ODDS form a powerful one-two punch, with the former especially appealing in a race without a ton of early speed. (6) OCEAN COLONY has been racing well since returning from a brief break.
Race 9
(3) BRIGHT FUTURE drops down for a barn that tends to do well on these types of class breaks. Look for trainer/driver Husted to have him in play early. (6) BACKSTREET LAWYER also moves down a notch off a decent try last time. (10) GRIFFON HANOVER needs some luck to overcome post 10, but I’ve seen worse price plays.
Race 10
(6) AMERICANPRIMETIME has a solid 9-3-3-1 record here the last few years and tends to excel when in this cheap. Let’s look for him to pull off the upset over (1) BELL I NO, who wired slightly cheaper last time for the red-hot Bongiorno barn. (5) DASH OF DANGER has been racing well but is likely going to settle for a minor award.
Race 11
(1) MR CENSI won convincingly when last seen at this NW8500 condition and should prove tough in a sketchy field. (6) INCREDIBLE SHARK steps up off an open-length win; player on best. (2) AVATARTIST has a string of credible efforts to his credit lately.
Race 12
(5) SPORTS LEGEND took the jump to NW4/5 with no issues and now might even offer a price versus some very sharp foes. (1A) PLAY JET RAY is certainly fast enough to win with the only question being whether he is tight enough off just one qualifier. (8) REBEL ROUSER goes for four straight but got unlucky at the draw. (6) SHADOW CAT may get ignored at the windows but was racing well in stakes last year; not impossible.
Race 13
(5) VODKA ON THE BEACH has come back to the races this year with two solid efforts, the last of which was a good second behind a killer. (6) MARK WITHA K has been racing well and could show even more for new connections. (2) JK CAPTAIN JACK qualified well for his 3-year-old debut and deserves at least a look on the track. (7) UNION STATION wasn’t great in his morning effort but does show stakes lines as a freshman.