Meadowlands: Saturday 2/8 Analysis

MEET STATS: 132-29-26-23 / $164.80 (-$99.20)
BEST BETS: 10-5-1-0 / $22.00 (+$2.00)
BEST BET: DECOY (4th)
SPOT PLAY: JESSE DUKE N (8th)

Race 1 – Non-winners 2-3 races or $20,000-$30,000 life - **$25K GTD Pick 5**

(5) CAVIART VAL comes off a non-descript qualifier, but that was open-type Hayden Hanover who won. He’s only missed a bit over a month and likely only needed an easy mile to get up to speed. (2) DEVIL OR ANGEL just missed in his career debut and is going to be the heavy chalk now. He has a good shot to win but the price won’t be worthwhile. (9) EHRMANTRAUT has a bit of ability and he moves into a new barn now; interesting.

Race 2 – Preferred

This is a nice group of six where none of them would be a shock in the winner’s circle. (6) ENDEAVOR should be put on the engine again this week and he certainly proved strong last time. (5) SICILY finished a solid second behind the top one. I’m expecting a repeat. (2) HARAMBE DEO is one of the sharpest horses in the country right now. How will he do in his first start for the new barn? (4) FRANCO TOTEM N won the Preferred two starts back; certainly capable.

Race 3 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5

(1) BORN OF FIRE gets love for me one final time. This is a huge class drop. If he can’t take care of business here, I don’t see how he is going to win a race at The Meadowlands. (6) YOUCANIKNOW drops for hot connections and was Gingras’ choice over another Burke trainee as well as #4. (3) PRIMO GIOVANNI comes off what looks like a dull line but really didn’t lose ground in the stretch. He can compete in this class. (2) SISKEL has decent form and a good post; exotics player.

Race 4 – Non-winners $5,000 in last 5 – Pick 6

(8) DECOY wasn’t bad last week while losing to a better horse and now he gets class relief. (2) THISISHOWWEDOIT switches conditions and more importantly gets away from the red-hot Dudies Lor. (4) UNCLE REIMUS gets a slightly better post to work with tonight and perhaps that will allow for a clean covered-up trip.

Race 5 – Leap Year Series – NW8000

(2) ALTA LEROY N picked up his game in his second start after over a year on the bench. Some people may be scared off by the lack of a typical catch-driver but that means we’ll get a better price. (7) STENDAHL HANOVER moves in a couple of spots on the gate and also gets out of a tough condition. There is ability inside this guy and don’t be shocked if he steps up. (9) SAMS TRIPLE CROWN took care of business while down in class but is certainly capable against this crew. (1) BRUCE’S MAGIC has some class and is no stranger to the winner’s circle at the Big M.

Race 6 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 4 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**

(7) EFFRONTE A came up short last time following a monster 1:48 3/5 win and a scratched-sick line. I expected him to need that start and now I’m hoping to hop on board at a better price point. (6) AMERICANPRIMETIME improved in his second start and we all know he has the class to beat this field. (3) MINDTRIP and (4) BELL I NO are two hard-knocking upper-level claimers that merit plenty of respect.

Race 7 – Leap Year Series – NW8000

This is a tough race with many possible winners. (1) MUSIC IS ART started from post 8 and closed six lengths in the stretch last week at Yonkers. Now in his second start for these connections, and picking up Dexter Dunn, perhaps we’ll see one of those sub 1:50 miles he’s displayed in the past. (5) JK WILDFIRE is one of the few horses in the field I can see gunning to the front. If he gets there, watch out! (8) FRANCO TRISTAN N took air and couldn’t sustain last time. He has a shot if set up with a cleaner trip. (2) NEW TALENT should sit close to the front and have a fighting chance.

Race 8 – Leap Year Series – NW10500

(5) JESSE DUKE N showed plenty of late life after clearing stretch traffic in his most recent qualifier. Five-year-old made over $120K last year in Australia and over $300K in his career Down Under. There is talent here. (4) ROCK LIGHTS was McCarthy’s pick over three others and he seems to be in a great spot to fire off the gate. (6) TRUMP THAT is in great form but I’d lean to him underneath in exotics. (10) HAYDEN HANOVER is the best horse in the field, but off just one qualifier and starting from post 10, I’ll wait a week.

Race 9 – Leap Year Series – NW10500

(5) AMERICANFIREWATER doesn’t look great off his last two races but is in a good spot and I’d love to see big early speed this week like he has shown at times in the past. (6) LAREDO TORPEDO N comes off a break but his prior efforts fit nicely with this group. (9) BRALEY HANOVER took some time off and came back with a sharp mile. I can see co-owner Gingras firing out here.

Race 10 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 4 – Pick 4

(7) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP gets some serious class relief and the 10-year-old veteran should have every chance to flex his muscles. (3) BECHERS BROOK A charged home to just miss last time in his first start since December. He clearly has a chance here but may get overbet. (8) LUCAN HANOVER moves into a new barn and steps up in claiming price but seems sharp enough to compete.

Race 11 – Non-winners 4-5 races or $50,000-$65,000 life

This looks like a close-knit field on paper so I’ll take a shot with (3) JK CAPTAIN JACK. He doesn’t always bring his best game to the track, but when he does, the results are more than good enough to beat this field. (5) GOOD ROOKIN took plenty of air and battled gamely in his first start here. This barn has been sending out live horses. (9) VIRGIN STORM has done some good things on the bigger track up north and did lure Andy Miller off my top pick and potential contender (1) ODE TO GRAY.

Race 12 – Trackmaster Rating 79.5 or less

(1) DUCKIES DYNASTY missed a week but he still looks like the horse to beat in a field without a clear standout. (5) SUNSET OVER MIAMI should be firing to the front with Gingras taking over the lines. (4) ALL IT TAKES is supposed to win this race on the class drop angle, but his form is very concerning. (3) IDEAL SON is going to save ground and close. If the trip works out he could win.

Race 13 - $7,500 Claiming

(6) FOUR DIAMONDS arrives from Ohio for a good barn and he clearly has the early speed to make the front. (2) TOP OF THE MARK comes back here from Yonkers and lands Gingras in the bike. (9) THAT’S MY OPINION has a history of winning here and he does drop two claiming levels on his return from vacation. (5) CADILLAC PHIL has a win and a third in his last two starts for this claiming price.