Meadowlands: Saturday 1/19 Analysis
Best Bet: GEEZ JOE (2nd)
Spot Play: ROUGH ODDS (8th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 129 - 359 / $739.50 (+$21.50)
BEST BETS: 10 - 29 / $33.80 (-$24.20)
Race 1
(5) DEWEY HAVA WINNER has been slowly improving since returning from a long vacation and seems to have found the perfect field to put it all together. (2) CREDIT FRAUD returns to The Meadowlands where she was a neck shy of a win in this class two starts back. (1) HAMMER CREEK is one of those horses that look better on paper than in reality. Those recent rallying efforts are nice, but he is still 1 for 24 lifetime on the win end.
Race 2
(6) GEEZ JOE took it easy last time after three weeks on the sidelines and rallied nicely. I’m expecting a more aggressive drive this time. (5) K RYAN BLUECHIP may have finished fifth but put in a big mile to lose by less than two lengths in last week’s Preferred. (2) MINDTRIP makes his last start for these connections and will likely leave it all on the track.
Race 3
(10) SURFING TIDE was rolling along before coming up a bit short last time. I expect he’ll be forwardly placed this time since he’s in the sale on Monday here. (4) ANNIHLATION could make an easy lead and sit a sweet trip this week. (9) MONTY’S PLAY is the one to beat on paper, but he does lose Gingras who isn’t driving on the card. (3) LETJIMMYTAKEOVER rallied well most recently.
Race 4
(1) SPIRIT OF TRUTH has been racing on the upper end of the spectrum at Freehold and now he tries the bottom condition here. This is a class drop for him and he did win twice at The Meadowlands in 2018. (3) DEEPFAVE HANOVER looks pretty dull on paper but is in the sale. I wouldn’t be shocked if he showed more. (5) ALL ABOUT RUSTY finally gets out of the 10-hole; contender.
Race 5
(2) MCCITO is one of very few in here who seems to be a legitimate $10,000 claimer. Abbatiello should put him in play. (7) OHIO LARRY comes in from Monticello with form and early speed. (4) IDEAL CANDIDATE & (6) LINDYTHEFOURTEENTH were close to the pace last week in a very fast early tempo. Either could show more with a better setup.
Race 6
(1) QUALITY BUD hasn’t been able to find his early 2018 form but lands in the perfect spot this week to shine. If he doesn’t win or race big this week, I think you have to give up on him. (4) DUEL IN THE SUN picks up an aggressive driver and should be hustled away. (5) JACK’S A ROCKIN arrives from Ohio and joins Team Miller; could awaken.
Race 7
(2) DECISION DAY dealt with traffic last week and now gets to step down a notch. Four-year-old has been sharp for a while now. (6) STONEDUST dropped a level last week and raced a bit better. He moves down again here and might be ready to win. (5) BUSHWACKER will be heading to the front once again and give it his best shot. (1) IDEAL JIMMY had every chance last week but I can’t be too hard on him after missing most of 2018.
Race 8
(1) ROUGH ODDS arrived in this condition last week and came up with a strong mile. Now he gets a better starting slot and has no excuses. (7) CENTURY CHURCHILL is certainly in a winning spot but this barn can’t buy a win right now; mixed feelings. (3) UF ROCKIN DRAGON went brutal fractions when last seen at this level. With better rating he can be a major factor.
Race 9
(9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is a horse I typically back at the NW5000 level, but this NW8500 plays more like a NW5000. He should put in a good performance. (2) WILLIE BOOTS was short after six months on the sidelines. He should show more in his second start back. (5) DUBIOUS CLAIM stays in the same class but faces a much easier field this week.
Race 10
(4) ALL WEEK raced ok versus much, much tougher foes last time after missing four weeks of action. I’m not sure he’ll be 120-1 like his last start, but the price should be healthy and he could be live. (6) DULL ROAR took a shot and tired most recently; fits with these. (8) JOHNNY Q comes out of the same race as the top pick and finished ahead of him; outside draw again. (5) CASUAL COOL could be a player if ready, but I think he might need the start.
Race 11
(10) DREAMFAIR MESA drops down for a high percentage barn and is cataloged to sell on Monday. All signs point to a big effort. (5) IWILLMAKEYOUSAYWOW was a winner when last in this class. (2) BRUCE’S MAGIC is hard to like in the top spot but should get a nice piece of the exotics. (1) MORE DRAGON gets post relief and won in this class four back.
Race 12
(1) CASTLE FLIGHT & (1A) INCREDIBLE SHARK form a strong duo for trainer Jeff Cullipher. Both are capable of winning, though the former gets my top pick as he’ll be in better striking position from the inside post. (5) ODDS ON LAUDERDALE raced well for second as the favorite in this class last time. (6) TACT TATE N adds Lasix. Maybe that will make the difference.
Race 13
(10) REBEL ROUSER has been rolling along week after week and we might actually get a bit of value from post 10 without Gingras in the bike. (4) ALI has some ability and lucked-out with his most obvious rivals on the outside of the gate. (8) ALTA SHELBY N is certainly capable but settles for second and third too often.
Race 14
(8) FOUR STACES stepped up and had no problems last week. He looks good to win again. (1) SPAGHETTI EDDIE should be able to sit just off the pace this time and get into the number at a nice price. (7) CHEYENNE REIDER needs some pace help but can clearly win with the right setup. (4) RATHER SWELL blew away slightly cheaper last time.