Meadowlands: Saturday 11/5 Analysis
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)
BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)
Best Bet: WALNER (2nd)
Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)
Race 1
(5) FEARLESS LEADER N made a nice move from the back to pick up a win in his U.S. debut at Freehold. While this is a slight step up, none of tonight’s competition is particularly sharp. (3) CARD SHOCK has a string of outside posts on his PP lines. He finally gets a nice starting spot and will have no excuses. (1) STIMULUS PLAN only has four career wins but a good portion of them have come at The Meadowlands.
Race 2
The only thing (9) WALNER has to fear is Walner himself. If he doesn’t make a mistake, he wins. (1) NEW JERSEY VIKING showed what he can do with a strong mile in last week’s Kindergarten division. I’m all in on this exacta and hoping for $7-8. (3) INTERNATIONAL MONI & (2) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY are both formidable for trainer Frank Antonacci, but I like #1 better underneath.
Race 3
(9) HUNCHIE looks abysmal on paper but has been facing slightly better company. Veteran returns to the Meadowlands tonight where he has gone some of his better miles this year and adds Tetrick. I’m inclined to roll the dice at a price in a field where none of the horses look enticing. (5) EVERY INTENTION got the call from Gingras over three others. (6) OUR JERRY LEE N spent plenty of time on the rim through hot fractions last week but rallied OK in his previous start.
Race 4
(1) AIR STRIKE tried to go down the road but got nipped at the wire by (8) CHIP WALTHER. That was this colt’s first start in two months and some minor improvement seems very possible. The latter has been on a roll with three straight wins. He rates as the favorite but far from unbeatable. (7) MAC’S JACKPOT has held his own this year and finished a close third behind the top pair last time.
Race 5
(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND has 13 wins the last few years at The Meadowlands and took care of business in his last two appearances at this level. Don’t hold that slow qualifying time last week against him. The winds were brutal and the track was very slow. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE picked up his game last week and should offer some value with David Miller picking off. (2) FAN OF TERROR could show speed in this spot and have a decent chance at an exotic position at least. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW was a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added last time.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINE DELIGHT comes off a really nice Breeders Crown effort where she showed early speed and grinded nicely on the rim first-over. (3) HILLARMBRO was solid all year until last week; should rebound. (9) OVERDRAFT VOLO has been racing well and shouldn’t be hurt by the addition of David Miller in the bike.
Race 7
(8) IN THE ARSENAL came up with a strong effort last week and might finally be ready to step up after a rather disappointing 4-year-old campaign. (5) BETTOR ROCK ON N ships in off a no-shot mile from post seven at Yonkers and shows a winning mile in 1:50 here this year. (7) SOHO LENNON A was facing some top competition at Yonkers and does add Gingras to the team.
Race 8
I’ve changed my mind five times in this Kindergarten Final but I know playing against the heavy favorite makes sense. Ultimately I’m landing on (4) NO CHASER, who was just a steady fourth last time versus many in here, but does show a 1:51 3/5 win on her record at the Red Mile. I can see her either sitting the pocket behind the favored (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE or perhaps picking up live cover from one of the inside horses. Someomensomewhere just won the Breeders Crown and deserves plenty of respect but I’m not necessarily convinced she is going to warrant the likely 3-5 off-time price. (1) CAVIART ALLY flew home last week which probably means an underlay price tonight. She also has just one win and five second in 11 career starts. (3) GURL BAND K has won three straight and must be considered.
Race 9
(9) SOUTHWIND INDY gets some serious class relief for a barn that has started the meet hot. (3) TRUE BLUE HALL wasn’t going anywhere from outside posts in his last two starts. He seems to be in a decent spot but has missed 21 days; mixed feelings. (8) SCREAMAN SEAMAN A raced OK in his first start for new trainer Nick Surick and does get to drop off that mile. (6) GUANTANAMO BAY has plenty of early speed and Gingras hops in the bike now.
Race 10
(4) CITY PIE almost wired the field as the favorite last time and should offer decent value with Zeron picking off to (5) ELWELL, who gets class relief as he ships in to The Meadowlands. (8) MATTAMERICAN was used last time and held well to lose by only a few lengths.
Race 11
(8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP appears to be as fast as any in this race and is certainly eligible to improve with Tetrick jumping in the bike for new trainer Valeriya Medik. (3) EVER AGAIN now has two sub 1:52 wins in the bank in his last four starts; respect. (7) SPICEBOMB has proven to be a strong closer and was placed on the engine last time; got nailed.
Race 12
(1) UNCLE LILE A lacked a big kick versus a tough group in his stateside debut. He gets a new driver and faces weaker competition this time around. (3) MY SPIRIT SOARS hasn’t done a thing in 2016 but does show a 1:49 3/5 win last year. It might be worth seeing how Ashley’s Husband and Polak A (Race 7 at Yonkers Saturday) perform before playing this guy. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE seems like a worthwhile horse to play underneath.
Race 13
(1) BIG JER makes his second start off the bench, drops down and faces an awful field; winner by default. (9) SHOW ME UP has been stuck in outside posts on the half-mile track at Saratoga. He draws poorly again but at least Tetrick joins the equation. (7) LEGENDS LUCK fits nicely here and should get a good piece of the exotics. If you are playing the Super or Jackpot Hi-5, I’d advise using ALL for fourth and/or fifth.
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