Meadowlands: Saturday 11/23 Analysis

MEET STATS: 130-42-20-20 / $196.60 (-$63.40)
BEST BETS: 10-7-1-0 / $20.30 (+$.30)
BEST BET: SHARTIN (11th)
SPOT PLAY: SIX PACK (10th)
RACE 1 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5 – Survivor 6
(6) ROCK LIGHTS has been racing pretty well out of town and finds himself a soft NW10000 field where he can take charge. (9) STONEDUST has a couple of even miles under his belt since returning from a break in action and he just might be ready for a big performance now. (1) DA MAGICIAN & (4) STORMONT CZAR A are racing well enough to think they could step up with the right trip.
RACE 2 – TVG Mare Trot
(1) ATLANTA gets a rare opportunity to face the girls this week and should dominate at short odds. (5) DARLING MEARAS S has been known to step up at times. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gunned off the gate to sit the pocket behind the top pick. (2) EMOTICON HANOVER should come away close and will likely be the low exacta number under #1.
RACE 3 – Winners 4-7 races life - **$40K GTD Pick 5**
(4) WORLD ON EDGE has been keeping some good company lately – Bettor’s Wish, De Los Cielos Deo, Hickfromfrenchlick. The last time he was in an overnight, the result was a win. (7) JACK’S SHADOW N picked up a solid win in this condition two starts back and caught an overall tougher group last time. (8) MATTICULOUS GB is undefeated and 18 of 22 lifetime, so some respect is deserved, but I want to see one here before I accept a short price. (1) BRASSY HANOVER moves into a new barn and could step up. (3) RESPECT OUR FLAG is a capable horse given the right trip.
RACE 4 – Governor’s Cup
(4) PAPI ROB HANOVER lays over this field and should win for fun. (3) FATHER NUNO found himself in a tough spot last time in the Matron and still closed well for third. He can get into the number at a decent price. (2) CATTLEWASH is a capable horse who will certainly be second choice, but there has been no indication he can handle #4.
RACE 5 – Valley Victory
I was looking for reasons to pick against (2) AMIGO VOLO, but ultimately he should be blasting to the top here to control the race. Even at the short price he seems like the logical play. (6) READY FOR MONI is a horse I’ve always liked, but I’m concerned he won’t be ready for a huge mile off just a 1:54 qualify. I might use him as a saver on one Pick 5 ticket. (5) EL IDEAL is certainly sharp and fast enough away from the gate to stick with the top pick. If #2 has an off night, watch out. (8) CHESTNUT HILL is a closing threat who should get a nice check.
RACE 6 – Goldsmith Maid
This is the first final on the card where I’ll try to go against the grain. (6) COMMON SENSE S has proven to be as fast as the favorites on the inside of the gate but will certainly be a bit of an overlay. I’m expecting the Svanstedt trainee to show up in a big way. (1) SISTER SLEDGE is ultra-consistent having never been off the board in 11 career starts. Along with (2) SENORITA RITA, who is looking for four straight wins, they’ll be tough in here.
RACE 7 – Non-winners $20,000 in last 5
(7) HAYDEN HANOVER raced well in both starts since returning from a break in action and I’m hoping he fires off the gate now. (6) FRANCO TOTEM N is climbing the ladder while in great form and has the ability to handle these if the top one isn’t 100 percent. (8) HARAMBE DEO was spectacular last week and has to be consideration off that mile. (2) NEW TALENT is a capable horse that has seen trouble getting over the top lately.
RACE 8 – TVG Open Pace - **$75K GTD Pick 4**
I’m rarely on the (4) MCWICKED bandwagon, but this looks like the perfect post for him to shine. His recent lines don’t ‘look’ great and that should enhance our price. (7) BETTOR’S WISH has been tackling some really nice 3-year-olds, so this group shouldn’t be too much of a shock for him. He could be following McWicked here, which isn’t a bad place to be. (8) ALWAYS A PRINCE has big speed and perhaps new driver Yannick Gingras can get it all out of him. (1) AMERICAN HISTORY is clearly a player here, but I’m worried about his trip and expect his odds will be shorter than deserved. (3) COURTLY CHOICE really wasn’t that bad in the Potomac. I wouldn’t be shocked if he fired a big shot in the final race of his career.
RACE 9 – Three Diamonds
(6) LYONS SENTINEL rebounded in a big way last time at Dover after a narrow defeat in the Breeders Crown. She seems a step or two faster than this crew. (5) JK FIRST LADY was very impressive last week but still needs to show me more before I’d back her versus the top pick. (4) MARLOE HANOVER had no excuse for the elimination loss to #5 last week. (8) PERFECT STORM has some ability and could get involved for the exotics with a smooth trip from Sears.
RACE 10 – TVG Open Trot
(1) SIX PACK finally draws well after a brutal trip in the Breeders Crown. Known as a lazy horse, tonight he gets a speedy and sharp foe in (5) MACHEGO to follow, which should only help his chances. The latter is the best trotter in the country at this moment but she’ll need her very best to beat the top pick. (2) GIMPANZEE is like a cash machine; he never turns in a bad effort. Unfortunately I don’t think he is fast enough to win.
RACE 11 – TVG Mare Pace
If you saw (1) SHARTIN win at Dover last week there is no way you could play against her tonight. She looked like the unstoppable force that we saw earlier in the year. (5) KISSIN IN THE SAND raced as well as she has all year finishing second behind the top pick last time and should still be a reasonable value for the bottom of the exacta. (7) CAVIART ALLY has to be gunning to the front here and she has defeated #1 in the past. (4) WARRAWEE UBEAUT is one fast 3-year-old, but I’m not really expecting her to beat this group.
RACE 12 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5
(6) MCTHRILLER certainly needed his last two starts returning from a few months on the sidelines. This isn’t the easiest NW10000 but he is eligible to step up. (5) ROUGH ODDS toured the track last week in his return to the races. He’s another with ability that should improve in a big way. (8) QUALITY BUD drops down and merits consideration.
RACE 13 – Non-winners $6,500 in last 5
(4) STARZNHEAVEN comes off an awful line that I’m simply going to toss out. Seven-year-old is very capable in a spot like this one. (3) BUSWACKER has loads of class but might not be the same horse he once was; mixed feelings. (1) DECOY raced well last time and might be coming back to form. (5) WILD GOOSE CHASE gets a new set of hands behind the lines; wakes up?