Meadowlands: Saturday 11/17 Analysis
Best Bet: ALL BETS OFF (6th)
Spot Play: REIGNING DEO (7th)
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 32 - 108 / $202.50 (-$13.50)
BEST BETS: 3 - 9 / $7.20 (-$10.80)
Race 1
(2) SOUTHWIND AVENGER won his qualifier rather easily. Canadian import lucked into the softer Valley Victory elimination and could pull off a mild upset. (7) has been facing the best in the division all year with some success. If Sears gets aggressive, this colt has a big shot. (1) PROSPECT HILL wasn’t up to the Breeders Crown competition and now settles into a good spot from an inside post; capable.
Race 2
(5) MCWICKED may lay back in last and give a few people a heart attack early, but with the short five-horse field he should be able to blow by them at will in the stretch. Leading Horse of the Year candidate can’t afford a loss. (4) FILIBUSTER HANOVER was second behind the top one in the Breeders Crown last time out and looms as the most logical upsetter if he can get away soft on the front. (3) WESTERN FAME has been a step below the top pair but is another capable of stealing away with soft fractions if given the opportunity.
Race 3
(5) TIE YOUR SHOE ED rallied nicely in this class two starts back and took too much air versus better last time. He’s capable of upsetting (1) ROCKIN THE HOUSE with the right trip. The latter switched to Gingras and just missed last Saturday. He’ll be odds-on now. (4) DAYLIGHT RUSH hasn’t been able to find his 2017 form but still merits a look in this class.
Race 4
(4) SEVEN HILLS blew up in the Kindergarten final as the 1-9 chalk. The price will get much better now and I don’t see any way they would enter this promising son of Muscle Hill unless he was 100%. (6) NO DRAMA PLEASE can be a bit of a mystery but is as fast as any in here; live longshot. (7) FORBIDDEN TRADE is the 2-year-old trotting King of Ontario. Let’s see if he can roll by this tougher group after five weeks without a pari-mutuel race.
Race 5
(8) LARRY KARR showed good speed and just missed last Friday. Versus a mostly dull group, he can wire this field. (2) GRAND THEFT dropped to this level and raced well. (3) THREEOFTHEBEST A picked up some confidence at Freehold, though that race was six weeks ago. He’s worth a look in the post parade. (4) SANTIAGO STYLE & (7) QUALITY BUD are capable horses that are out of form.
Race 6
(8) ALL BETS OFF hasn’t been in this cheap since May 2014. Even if he isn’t on his best, he should take care of business. (4) HUNDIE N was hard held to take off the gate and finished up willingly versus Pure Country in his lone North American qualifier. Jimmy Takter trainee appears to have some ability. (6) K RYAN BLUECHIP was sharp last time versus easier foes.
Race 7
(4) REIGNING DEO rallied well from a difficult spot in the Matron despite missing four weeks of action. New York-bred son of Rock N Roll Heaven has ability and should offer good value. (5) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has won three of his last four starts including the Kindergarten final. Well-bred son of Somebeachsomewhere-Shelliscape could be this good. (8) CAPTAIN CRUNCH deserves credit for winning the Breeders Crown, but the odds will be low and his best work has come after sitting a trip.
Race 8
(6) BUSHWACKER got in the win column in his fourth start back from a long break. Classy veteran should be able to handle the class jump here. (5) PLAY JET RAY loomed but couldn’t pass last time after a long mile from post 10. Better post tonight could mean we see early speed. (7) SAMS TRIPLE CROWN hasn’t been sharp lately but remains dangerous.
Race 9
(5) MAJOR AUTHORITY finished tenth last time but had no shot due to the slow pace. Expect him to be forwardly placed this time around. (3) STILL FRISKIE drops back down to the level of his last win two starts back. (9) EXPRESS STRIDE N can come up with a big mile at times and does drop down the condition ladder here.
Race 10
(3) JACKSRLUCKYTOO raced very well in this class two starts back. Hopefully he’ll revert to off-the-pace tactics. (2) SWEET BEACH did well after a layoff and could be tighter now. (10) WHAT’S GOIN ON tries the big track this week and does drop down a bit; could awaken.
Race 11
(5) ROLLING SEA is hard to love with breaks in three of his last five starts, but none of these jump off the page for me. If this guy behaves, he is every bit as fast as the competition. (8) ALWAYS A BB & (7) JK MUSICMAN are the best horses in this race but come in with questionable form, layoffs or a break.
Race 12
(4) MAGNUM MIKE went from zero to hero off the barn change to Ron Burke. It’s hard to ignore him coming right back in a similar spot. (5) CC BIG BOY SAM moves into a very live barn and could easily show more. (1) SHOW ME UP is another changing stables. He’s better than his last race.
Race 13
(6) IDEAL ROMANCE raced well last time and now moves into a good barn. (3) BAY RUM perked up nicely with Lasix added. (9) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE is more than capable of winning despite the bad draw. (5) IDEAL CANDIDATE moves into a new stable but should keep his form.