Meadowlands: Saturday 11/16 Analysis

MEET STATS: 104-34-19-17 / $164.40 (-$43.60)
BEST BETS: 8-5-1-0 / $14.50 (-$1.50)
BEST BET: DUDDIE’S LOR (2nd)
SPOT PLAY: WHITTAKER N (11th)
Race 1 – Trackmaster Rating 79.5 or less - **$25K GTD Pick 5**
(6) WINNING LINC was done in by an outside post while facing tougher last week. Better post and Tetrick joining the team should result in a win. (2) ONE TOUGH NUT won by five in this class two starts back; upset chance. (4) MASTER OF PUPPETS can save ground and get into the exotics.
Race 2 – Non-winners 2/3 races or $20,000/$40,000 life
(6) DUDDIE’S LOR takes a serious drop in class this week and should be tight now after getting a couple of starts under his belt. I’m expecting this Brett Pelling trainee to shine. (8) ACTOR HANOVER has big early speed and perhaps new trainer Richard Johnson can figure out how to get him to keep going. (5) BICORNE HANOVER drops out of stakes action and could perk up.
Race 3 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5
(4) LUCK N ROLL K has been done in by bad posts in his last two starts. Prior to that he was used hard here versus better; good spot. (6) SHATTERED GLASS returns to The Meadowlands at a reduced level and should put in a solid effort. (7) THE DARK SHADOW picks up Gingras and has early speed.
Race 4 – Non-winners $6,500 in last 5
(1) DECOY is not one of my favorite horses, but this seems to be the right spot for him to shine. (4) STATEMENT MADE A rallied well in a higher class here last time; clear player and likely favorite. (7) DA MAGICIAN looked very good in the amateur ranks and getting David Miller in the bike can only help. (6) ROOTIN TOOTIN is a capable horse if ready off the bench.
Race 5 – Trackmaster Rating 83 or less
(7) ROCK THREE TIMES finds a field without much early speed on paper and might just steal this race. (2) BORN OF FIRE has a pair of seconds in his last three starts for this Trackmaster rating, but the barn is having trouble succeeding on the win end. (6) ALL IT TAKES is clearly rounding into form and more than fast enough of handling a class hike if feeling good. (5) BOOGIE NIGHTS should be tighter in his second start after a two-month break.
Race 6 – Preferred
(5) ATLANTA should be able to get away mid-pack and pick up live cover in this spot. Obviously the main goal is the TVG next week but Burke usually sends his horses out to win. (1) RICH AND MISERABLE raced well behind a soft pace last time and comes right back in eight days after seeing lots of gaps in his lines. He could be an interesting price play, especially if the cold weather slows down some others. (4) HANNELORE HANOVER is not the mare she once was be really hasn’t been that bad either. If Dunn gets her in a winning spot trip-wise, she could make some noise.
Race 7 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5
(9) FATHER SARDUCCI blazed the way on the front and couldn’t quite last late in the mile. Perhaps new driver Sears can get him an easier trip on the engine. (3) CHIP WALTHER and (2) GRIFFON HANOVER gets post breaks and either is capable with a smooth trip.
Race 8 – Three Diamonds Elim. - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
This is a tricky race because there is no standout and since the top 8 make the final (which goes for 20x), it is hard to tell which horses may be aggressive. I’m going to take a shot with (5) JK FIRST LADY since she hasn’t raced pari-mutuelly in four weeks but did qualify well. Perhaps she’ll come out swinging looking to get tight for the final. (3) PERFECT STORM was a very willing second despite bad cover in the Matron behind a filly that will be odds on next week after accepting a bye into the final. (1) MARLOE HANOVER just missed in the Breeders Crown but rebounded with a nice win in the Kindergarten. She’s the filly to beat but far from a lock.
Race 9 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5
(5) ROCKN JIMMY BROWN saved ground behind slow fractions and paced home willingly in 26 3/5 for a small check last week. He switches conditions to face a softer group now and might get more aggressive here. (6) BIG STRETCH MARK won in this class two starts back and certainly merits a look. (9) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A returns to the Big M at a reduced level and with one of the hottest drivers at the track. (3) XTERNAL looks like a quality horse that could capitalize with the right setup.
Race 10 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5
(4) NEW TALENT came up short versus better after missing a month of action. He gets my weak top call expecting him to show more now. (6) FRANCO TOTEM N was a sharp winner last time and Dexter Dunn chose him over two others. I don’t love the driver choice angle but Dunn has been making all the right decisions. (5) MCTHRILLER is good enough on his best, but after missing more than three months and considering that he’ll get a class break next time, I’m inclined to wait a week. (3) ANNIHILATION picks up Sears and that could be the right fit to help this guy get a nice check.
Race 11 – Non-winners $6,500 in last 5
(10) WHITTAKER N bested a field he was supposed to beat last time as the chalk. I’m hoping Tetrick gained the confidence he needs in this 6-year-old to push away from the bad post and give him a shot to win again. (6) STORMONT CZAR A doesn’t seem to face much speed to his inside and could be sitting in a great spot with an aggressive steer. (1) SPICEBOMB is a capable yet unreliable sort. He’s worth a flyer in the Pick 4. (2) CENTURY CHURCHILL needs a trip to win but could get one from the inside post.
Race 12 – Winners 4-7 races lifetime
(1) U S CAPTAIN blitzed a field in this class here on November 2 and anything close to that performance will result in another win photo. (7) JACK’S SHADOW N found room late and charged late for the win. This guy seems worth following. (2) DA DELIGHTFUL has good form and was second behind the top pick when they last met. (6) COVERED BRIDGE had no chance after chasing slow fractions last week; player on best.
Race 13 – Trackmaster Rating 79.5 or less
(1) WESTERN DYNASTY exits the amateur ranks and picks up a typically aggressive catch-driver in a soft field. Maybe this guy can wake up? (2) WILD AGAIN comes off a win and adds Tetrick. He’s got a shot but will be overbet. (7) IMAGEOFAROCKER could leave hard in here and might get away cheaply if he does. (9) MATEO returns to The Meadowlands where he was racing reasonably well.