Meadowlands: Friday 6/28 Analysis
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 58 - 194 / $306.00 (-$82.00)
BEST BETS: 9 - 14 / $33.20 (+$5.20)
BEST BET: THE ICE DUTCHESS (12th Race)
SPOT PLAY: FORTUNE STARLET (4th Race)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
[SUN STAKES: Free Harness Eye PPs, 20% Rebate & Live Video for Sun Stakes Saturday at The Downs at Pocono.]
Race 1 – New Jersey Sire Stakes – 2YOC&G - $25,000 GTD PICK-5 POOL
(1) ROCK N TEEN flashed good speed and wasn’t packing it in through the stretch before he made a sharp unexpected left turn in the stretch. I’m going to forgive the strange miscue and give him a shot against a seemingly lackluster field. (4) CEDAR HALL HEAVEN showed good early speed at Gaitway and will be a big price here. (8) ALEX HAVING FUN never got involved from an outside post on the half at Harrington. The 15th foal from Arterra has a few sub 1:50 siblings in her family tree. (3) VILLIAM adds Gingras to the team and could be on the move early.
Race 2 – Rainbow Blue Final
It might be a stretch based on her finishes this year but in this abbreviated field I’m going to take a stab with (4) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL. She’s yet to be unleashed this year and this might be a good spot to let her out a notch. (2) CAVIART ALLY is clearly the horse to beat at short odds. (1) APPLE BOTTOM JEANS has early speed and form; clear exotic player.
Race 3 – New Jersey Sire Stakes – 2YOC&G
(3) PLAY TRIX ON ME two-moved with ease in his career debut at Philly over a rain-soaked surface. He jumps off the page here at short odds. (2) ST MARTINS came out with a solid mile in his only qualifier and really doesn’t have much to beat for second. Son of Trixton is the first foal from this mare. (9) RAINTREE REBEL was just ok in his lone morning effort but did show a decent step away from the gate.
Race 4 – New Jersey Sire Stakes – 2YOF
You can’t really see those qualifiers at Vernon, but I love the fact that (3) FORTUNE STARLET was met with pressure in both races and drew clear. Third foal from Fortune Dream is a half-sister to solid NJSS performer Shoshie Deo and Zeron chose off his father’s horse to drive. (8) CAVIART EVA rolled down the road in her qualifier and will likely take plenty of action for top connections. (1) LINDY’S STARDUST broke in her first qualifier and was being held together in her second, but she is the 2nd foal from this mare and a full sister to the very impressive Evident Beauty ($373K, 1:52 3/5). (6) COMMON SENSE S comes off a decent qualifier but I don’t like the fact that she had the lead and lost. (5) FORTUNE TELLN LADY qualified well but I wasn’t blown away.
Race 5 – Non-winners 2 races or $20,000 life
(7) ALDEBARANWALKABOUT showed some go as a 2-year-old and was a solid second in his latest comeback qualifier. (5) SHEER MUSCLE tried the Beal last time and understandably couldn’t hang with that crew; clear favorite here. (2) STAR TRACK HANOVER has been racing well; player. (8) SCIROCCO DONNAHILL had no shot last time when dropped out of stakes company; maybe.
Race 6 – Graduate Pace
(6) JIMMY FREIGHT rolled down the road very impressively at Woodbine Mohawk Park and should be controlling the action or sitting the pocket. He should have a nice tactical edge on some of the others. (5) AMERICAN HISTORY is slowly getting closer to a top effort and he should have a healthy pace to finish into and a live escort in the red-hot (3) BACKSTREET SHADOW. (4) ALWAYS A PRINCE went a 1:20 1/5 three quarter clocking last week about as easily as I’ve seen a horse do it. Hall of Fame driver takes over this week.
Race 7 – New Jersey Sire Stakes – 2YOF
(6) DRAMATRA was visibly impressive closing in 26 4/5 to finish second in her latest qualifier. First Trixton foal from this mare is a half-sister to $1.6MM winner Royalty For Life. (8) SPOILED PRINCESS finished up her last qualifier very nicely on the inside, which is something that some young horses don’t do easily. Nifty Norman charge is a full sister to Mother Bonnie, who showed some promise as a 2-year-old. (9) VIOLET STRIDE comes off a sharp qualifier but she didn’t really have much competition as the leader broke at the head of the lane. Well-bred filly is the third foal from a mare that has hit two homeruns with Simply Volo ($271K) and Lily Stride ($701K).
Race 8 – Non-winners $17,500 in last 5 starts - $50,000 GTD PICK-4 POOL
(7) RECLAMATION has a nose for the wire and the only knock I can find is the 24 days on the sidelines. That said, Burke trains hard and no doubt has her ready. (9) MISS YOU N was used early and paid the price last time. She can show more here. (1) PERCY BLUECHIP gets an inside post and will no doubt try to stay close. (10) CATCH AN ACE continues to roll along with solid efforts but post 10 could present an issue.
Race 9 – Non-winners 4-6 races or $50-$90K life
(1) SUPER SCHISSEL was up against it in the Goodtimes versus some top 3-year-olds. He’s back at the Big M now in the easiest spot he has seen this year. (3) CORDOBA HALL moves into a new barn and comes south to seek an easier spot rather than face the best in Saratoga. (4) SISTER’S PROMISE chased a good one in NJSS and might have some ability. (7) CHIPLOSIVE went a big mile at Philly.
Race 10 – Graduate Pace
(4) COURTLY CHOICE wasn’t great last week but it wasn’t as important a race on the schedule as this one. I expect we’ll see a strong effort. (7) SHADOW CAT comes off a monster mile and he may be able to make the final with a win. (1) THE DOWNTOWN BUS has no shot from post 8 at Yonkers; contender. (6) THINKBIG DREAMBIG is not as bad as his last race but we need to see a good one soon.
Race 11 – Non-winners $12,500 in last 4 starts
(9) EUROBOND hasn’t done much as a 4-year-old this year and the post isn’t ideal, but maybe new driver Andy Miller can wake up a horse with ability. (2) ON THE ROPES has raced well each week with the exception of the one break. (1) HENDERSON SEELSTER should flash early speed and get a piece. (6) ZLATAN also has early zip and will go a long way.
Race 12 – 3-year-old Open
(2) THE ICE DUTCHESS was scratched last week so two top Nancy Johansson trainees didn’t have to race against each other. She’s all class and should prove tough. (4) SHEENA’S BOY turned things around versus cheaper and might build on that effort. (7) GUARANTEED and (8) SOUL STRONG have talent and could threaten with the right trip from outside posts.
Race 13 – 2-year-old Fillies
(3) MERGA HANOVER has put together two huge miles at Gaitway and Gingras chose her over #5. First foal from Magic Starlight ($365K, 1:51 3/5) appears to have ability. (2) SILVER TAIL accelerated very nicely in the lane in her career debut. (5) HEN PARTY has done ok in her morning works and is a half-brother to last year’s Metro winner Stag Party. (1) BLOOD RED broke in the pocket for no reason last week. It is worth noting that mom Blood Diamond is 3-for-3 with Blood Brother ($790K), Blood Line ($400K) and Blood Money ($397K) for Diamond Creek Farm.
Race 14 – Non-winners 2 races or $20,000 life
(3) HATIKVAH went a tough trip at The Meadowlands last week. Making the front here should be easier. (7) FINALLY FOUND AWAY rallied well off slow fractions for a top trotting trainer. (1) GRANDMA HEIDI has shown enough in the morning to think she can play here. (4) NIGHT HALL drops out of Sire Stakes where she raced well.