Meadowlands: Friday 5/17 Analysis
Best Bet: GREENSHOE (2nd)
Spot Play: OCEAN COLONY (5th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 16 - 51 / $78.00 (-$24.00)
BEST BETS: 2 - 3 / $6.40 (+$.40)
Race 1
(5) MR CARROTTS hasn’t been racing as badly as his recent finish positions would indicate and he finds a soft spot in the amateur ranks this week. (1) JUST N BERLANDER is tackling slightly better but remains razor sharp with one of the better amateur drivers in the sulky. (4) MAY I CRUISE WEST took too much air last time and lacked a late rally. He could get into the number with a clean trip.
Race 2
(4) GREENSHOE could be the Hambletonian favorite in a few months if he keeps his head together. Freaky-fast son of Father Patrick only has to behave (he’s looked good in qualifiers) to win at likely odds of 1-9. (2) HUDSON RIVER put together two nice qualifiers but was unlucky to run into the top pick here. (1) SHEENA’S BOY rolled at Pocono. This will be a good test for him.
Race 3
(7) SWEET DIAMOND had a much more interesting 2019 debut journey than it appears in her PP line. She was forced to take a seat in the pocket by a foe that ultimately stopped into her on the final turn and almost retook off the first turn before quickly aborting that move. Well-bred daughter of Sweet Lou/Yellow Diamond seems worth following at what could be a price. (1A) SHES A MAJOR LADY has put up two solid races here with fast closing quarters. (5) MY LADY DUDE has displayed speed in her qualifiers but is a huge question mark.
Race 4
(7) REIGN OF HONOR quietly made a very good living in his rookie season. He sat last in his first start of 2019 and finished well into a quick final quarter. I think we’ll see more here. (1) TRIX AND STONES ships down from Mohawk off a convincing win and looks like a must use. (5) NO DRAMA PLEASE returned from winter vacation with a solid mile.
Race 5
(5) OCEAN COLONY drops in company for the third straight start despite racing well last time. Also, notice the earnings cap was raised from 3,500 to 3,750 so he fits. (2) STONEDUST tops the pick by moving down in class for a fourth straight week; clearly a player. (8) POP POP JOE has lost his mojo for new connections but does find a field that seems to lack a ton of early speed. (4) LIVE ON won in this class two starts back but faces a much better group here.
Race 6
(4) FRENCH CAFÉ rallied nicely to win at first asking in 2019 and is certainly capable of coming right back at what should be a decent price. (2) EVIDENT BEAUTY is a talented young filly, but she’ll be well-backed and might be handled more conservatively in her initial start. (7) MISS TRIXTON charged home after starting from post 10 most recently and could be overbet tonight versus a group with more talent.
Race 7
(8) PILOT DISCRETION broke when he hit the huge headwind stretch gusts in a qualifier two starts back but rebounded with an impressive performance on May 4. Still undefeated colt likes to show early speed and looks ready to roll. (9) GUARANTEED burned plenty of money when he was out-sprinted after rating on the front. I wouldn’t give up on him too quickly. (1) TOTALLY TAKTER put in a decent effort to start his career; more now?
Race 8
(5) MARVELOUSSTRIX showed good early speed and pounced in the lane to win her first start of 2019 at 9-1. You’ll likely get another sweet price with some stakes fillies in the field, so why not take a shot that she has improved greatly over the winter. (9) SPECIAL HONOR brushed and tired in her first start of the year but deserves another chance. (8) WHISPERING OAKS was caught from behind by the top pick in her last qualifier, but there is room for improvement.
Race 9
(8) CRAZSHANA just missed as my top pick last week and I’m not jumping ship versus a mostly dull field despite the outside draw now. (9) HENDERSON SEELSTER has the early speed to overcome the outside draw and he gets plenty of class relief tonight; must use. (4) LIFE WELL LIVED was used a bit early and raced well in this condition last time. (1A) EXS AND OHS rolled home last week for the win; faces tougher.
Race 10
(6) SAY YOU DO came up with a huge mile last week and now has won two in a row. The competition gets more difficult now, but he may just be up to the task. (3) DW’S REVENGE charged home to win a week ago and seems to be sharp enough to handle these with a decent trip. (4) MY LINDY WINNER hasn’t missed the board yet in eight starts and he seems like a player. (2) THE ICE DUTCHESS is undoubtedly the best horse in the field, but she is making her first start of the year while facing older foes and boys. I can’t play her as the potential chalk.
Race 11
(7) TRAFFIC JAM finished fast to just miss last week. I’ll stick with her. (3) WHISKERSONKITTENS comes off a pair of wins but tackles tougher now. (4) PARKIN IN HEAVEN was just behind the top pick last time out; in with a shot. (2) JK MARDI SAYS won in her first start of the year and could easily step up.
Race 12
(5) VILLAGE JACKSON has finished just behind the red-hot Just N Berlander in his last two tries. This looks like the right spot. (2) DAYLYN HORIZON didn’t fire last week but his prior form was fine. (8) OH MY JOEPA was bet heavily last week and handled aggressively but tired. Maybe the bettors were a week early?
Race 13
(6) LEVITATION finally displayed some life in the stretch with Lasix added and Marcus Miller driving; sticking with him. (4) LUCKY WEEKEND was in against a tough group last time. This is a great spot. (1) ARRAKIS & (2) KNIGHTOFVICTORY have drawn inside and should be close to the action with a chance to win.