Meadowlands: Friday 4/5 Analysis
Best Bet: RECLAMATION (12th)
Spot Play: IF NOT WHY NOT (10th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 201 - 622 / $1165.90 (-$78.10)
BEST BETS: 16 - 49 / $54.60 (-$43.40)
Race 1
(5) RATHER SWELL was overbet last week but that should level off after a third-place finish. With a fair amount of early speed signed on, hopefully driver Bob Davis will be patient and attacked late in the mile. (9) SO TAKE THAT was assigned the outside after consecutive wins in this series. He seems sharp enough to overcome. (3) MAC ANOVER seems to be dropping into a great spot but this barn has been ice cold with no wins since February.
Race 2
With five of the six in here coming back from vacation, it is hard to know who will be firing hard early. I’ll take a shot with (1) FULL RIGHTS since this barn typically has them ready to fire. Maybe Ray Schnittker will point him down the road. (3) LUCKY WEEKEND qualified well and may be the one to beat. (4) DIVINE SPIRIT chased in a fast qualifier last time behind Pinkman. That should have him close to ready.
Race 3
(8) AVENTURE doesn’t behave very often but is a capable horse when he does. Perhaps the switch to Gingras can work in his favor against a lackluster field. (6) FLYHAWK CHARM was written into this race via the new TrackMaster Rating condition. Barn won two races here last weekend and this gal has early speed; respect. (4) KNIGHTOFVICTORY hasn’t won in years but has put in two good tries of late.
Race 4
(2) GOES DOWN SOUTH rolled down the road in his first start of the year and Gingras chose him over the similarly good-looking 2019 first-time starter (5) FINAL CLAIM, who won in a faster time than his barn-mate. I was undecided between the two so I’ll go with Gingras’ decision. (3) HL REVADON comes off a nice effort but seems up against it.
Race 5
(7) SUTTON gets away from Trolley and should be ready for his best after getting three starts under his belt. This looks like a winning spot. (4) CASH ME OUT recently eclipsed the million-dollar mark in career earnings and has seen success here in the past. With McCarthy electing for (8) MELADY’S MONET, the price should be right. The latter might need to pass them all to win but the 10-year-old is capable when feeling good. (6) PINKMAN qualified well but seems likely to need a start or two before tackling this kind.
Race 6
(5) DOUBLE L LINDY got caught up in a fast mile and wasn’t quite ready for it in his second start since July 2018. I’d expect to see early speed again here and a winning effort. (9) WARRAWEE SHIPSHAPE comes out of the same race as the top pick but drew worse tonight. Improvement is possible in just his second start for this barn. (3) TRIUMPHANT’S CHIP has won here in the past and he does pick up the track’s leading driver.
Race 7
(7) NEWSDAY has been running into some much better mares than she faces this week. If McCarthy can work out any decent trip, this mare should be tough. (5) ROCKIN PRALINE raced evenly off the bench. She could be interesting if Miller elects to show early speed. (6) RAINBOW BLUE hasn’t looked very good lately and it seems to me that one late move might be the best tactics.
Race 8
(2) TWIN B WATCHING raced well in his first start since October and should be ready to roll now, though this isn’t an easy spot. (5) RESPECT OUR FLAG had some clear trouble on the final turn in his last qualifier but did pace home well. You have to respect this barn. (3) UNION STATION should be tighter this week after a nice speed try last time; contender.
Race 9
(7) LOVE LIVE LAUGH went down the road at Saratoga last week and doesn’t seem to have much in the way of early speed to her inside this time. (4) TRAFFIC JAM rallied well in her first start on the east coast; threat if kept closer. (10) BLUSH HANOVER can clearly win this race but she is out of excuses for failure. (8) ROSY OUTLOOK is another with early speed that is worth a look at least underneath.
Race 10
(1) IF NOT WHY NOT went a nice steady mile in his first start back from vacation and seems to have found the perfect spot here. Expect to see an aggressive steer. (5) RESITA was used in the early stages and paid the price last week. A smoother trip should produce better results. (9) HOCKEY HANOVER certainly looked good winning last Friday. The competition is better now and the post hurts, but I wouldn’t cross him off your list.
Race 11
(1) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE really kicked in impressively in his latest qualifier and caught my eye. (3) WORLD ON EDGE also turned in a nice morning effort and does show some stakes action as a 2-year-old. (5) ONE CORONA TO GO scored at first asking with a big final quarter last Saturday; contender. (7) BRING THE THUNDER is another who looked good enough to consider in his qualifier.
Race 12
(3) RECLAMATION put up some nice miles here in December and her return qualifiers were sharp as well. She should be tough to beat. (5) TRILLIONS HANOVER was going well when last seen in the summer and she did pace home well in her recent qualifier. (6) WELL SAID MARIA seems like a lock to show early speed and last for a decent piece.
Race 13
In a field without much of a standout, I’ll roll the dice with the lone class-dropper (6) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN. Despite the drop to the basement condition, the veteran gelding should offer a great price with the trainer electing to drive. (1) KARETS has missed some time but certainly fits into this race nicely. (8) TECH TITAN is always a good bet to hit the board in this class. (9) DARK POOL rallied nicely from a tough post last Friday and will have a similar task ahead here.