Meadowlands: Friday 3/18 Analysis
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 118 - 421 / $679.50 (-$162.50)
BEST BETS: 16 - 31 / $66.30 (+$4.30)
Best Bet: AVA N ELLA (2nd)
Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (9th)
Race 1
At first glance (7) A J DESTINY doesn’t appear fast enough to win this race, but he did finish fifth in 1:55 4/5 back in January here for a different barn. I’ll take a shot with the high percentage combination of Hechkoff and Spagnola here at a price. (8) B L CLASS ACT would probably be the one to beat from an inside post; capable regardless. (6) CAPTAIN PRIMEAU is capable of winning if the month layoff isn’t an issue.
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Race 2
(4) AVA N ELLA won as she pleased a week ago and gets another free ride in the same class. (2) SHESGOTTHEBEAT was second behind the top choice last time and should get away close and have a similar placing opportunity. (1) SHE CAN CRUISE was just even in her career debut; shows more now?
Race 3
(6) KEYSTONE THOMAS never got into the race from post 10 while parked the entire mile last time. He’ll be firing hard early and have no trouble taking charge. (2) CUP DAY SPUR N comes in off a win and picks up one of the top amateurs in the game. (7) CELEBRITY STIMULUS has plenty of early speed and that trait alone makes him dangerous.
Race 4
(1) TRUE BLUE STRIDE looked sharp in his qualifier and I’ve always felt this guy had some untapped potential. That said, this guy has sucked up a bunch of my money already. (2) CURFEW was a good second behind the top one in the morning and is probably the one to beat in this spot if he behaves. (8) OPEN ROAD HANOVER also comes back off a good qualifier and was racing in state-bred stakes last year.
Race 5
(1) BAD DAY BLACK ROCK raced well two starts back but threw in a clunker when he broke most recently. In a field lacking form and substance, I look for the rebound. (5) STAR STUDDED CAST could fire off the gate and get away from this field. (4) AMARCORD is another with some early speed who could get a piece.
Race 6
(3) MODEST PRINCE looked like a sure winner coming into the stretch but just couldn’t get his nose up last time. Off that more positive experience (he finished 7th, 9th and 6th previously), I’m going to stay here. (5) MERMERIZED was a sharp down the road winner most recently and looks dangerous again. (4) DETROIT RAPPER faded after racing uncovered against tougher and would figure to be tough in this spot.
Race 7
(2) CAN DO was competitive for quite a while versus Open Handicap types and some lackluster recent efforts have afforded him some needed class relief. You have to expect that he’ll awaken against this field. (4) MAGENTA MAN has won six of eight starts while hitting the board in every 2016 start; enough said. (5) WORLD CUP can’t seem to find the knockout punch in the lane but remains sharp. (10) IT’S PAYDAY FRIDAY has the ability if he minds his manners.
Race 8
(9) NOT BEFORE EIGHT got unlucky with the far outside draw but does face the easiest field she has seen in months. I have to think Zeron will put her in play. (3) FANTICIPATION comes off a good try at Yonkers and has the early speed to be a sneaky price play. (7) SWEET TIME spent time on the rim and raced well in her first start for the new barn. (2) HEY KOBE drops down and seems like a must use.
Race 9
(2) BORN TO FIGHT is back at the Meadowlands against lesser foes and seems likely to rebound with a good effort. (4) BJANTHONY has been a model of consistency. (1) WINDSUN ILLUSION drops back down but wasn’t exactly winning when last seen against this type. I give him a shot because this field lacks a ton of early speed.
Race 10
(1) MADMAN HALL loomed but came up flat late with Schnittker driving. This guy is ready to win and the switch to Miller could be a difference maker. (4) SPECTATOR K raced well in his first start for this barn and should prove competitive once again. (3) KEYSTONE TREVOR was a bit better last time.
Race 11
The moment (7) MISCHIEF MAKER N crossed the wire in his first U.S. qualifier I knew there was a good chance she would be my top selection in his pari-mutuel debut. Down Under import finished up willingly that morning and should offer fair value with Nason driving. With the exception of the top choice, who is a bit of an unknown, (5) PURITY hasn’t seen a field this weak in quite some time; must use. (1) MANDY’S MATTJESTY arrives for trainer Ron Burke and has early speed.
Race 12
(4) K J’S CAROLINE comes off a 1:58 1/5 qualifier at Monticello which translates nicely in terms of time against this group. She has as good a chance as any in this tough to figure event. (6) ROYAL ENGAGEMENT comes off two solid efforts here and seems likely to be the favorite. (9) MOJARRA HANOVER is far from a killer but usually wakes up in spots like this one. (7) KELLI RACHELLE put up a win in this class two starts back; logical player.
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