Meadowlands: Friday 12/20 analysis
MEET STATS: 254-78-37-33 / $349.20 (-$149.10)
BEST BETS: 20-11-2-0 / $32.40 (-$7.60)
BEST BET: HAMMER TIME (4TH)
SPOT PLAY: BLACKWELL RUBY IR (1ST)
Race 1 – Non-winners 2/3 races or $20-$30,000 life - $25K GTD Pick 5
(2) BLACKWELL RUBY IR swung out four-wide last time and was driven a bit too confidently in a nose loss. Expect him to be in charge early in the mile and show what he has in the tank. (1) WATCHFUL EYE finished third behind two better foes last week and is young enough to keep improving. (3) DARN TOOTN HANOVER has a bit of versatility and decent form; using underneath.
Race 2 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5
This is the least formful field I’ve seen in a Meadowlands race. (2) ER SKYWALKER raced ok in his first start for Derue over this track then broke on a smaller oval. He’s back on the big track and I’m sure Derue has made some changes to take advantage of this soft spot. (9) NOBLE WARRAWEE has a bit of class to him and I have a feeling Abbatiello will be firing hard off the gate. (4) HAWAIIAN CANDO finished third last time and that makes him the sharpest horse in the field by a mile.
Race 3 - $12,500/$15,000 Claiming Handicap
(5) AMERICAN MUSIC was in a tough spot last time and raced decently. Prior to that he was handled aggressively and won. Four-year-old is feeling good and looks like a player in a tough-to-figure field. (1) ALL MUSIC ships in sharp from Saratoga and seems like a fit. (10) STEVE SAID won in this class last week but was dealt the dreaded 10-hole this time. (7) FOREVERNALWAYS double jumps in class off a sharp win, though others set the table for that career-best mile.
Race 4 – Non-winners $7,500 in last 5
(1) HAMMER TIME gets a major driver switch to Gingras here and figures to awaken for a barn that has been hot this meet. (7) HASHTAGMADEYALOOK arrives from Philly and gets class relief; eligible to show more. (2) NO EXCUSES is certainly sharp right now. (6) MUSCLE FASHION also comes over from Philly and seems capable at a price.
Race 5 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5
(5) SHELLIE DE VIE has been awful out of town but returns to the scene of a wire-to-wire win three starts back. Four-year-old mare could perk up in a hurry. (6) BELIEVE IN ME has been racing well and would be no surprise in this spot. (1) JEWELS FORREAL moves into a winless field but did wire them in this class here back in October. (2) MS MAC N CHEESE is clearly sharp right now and might be able to step up.
Race 6 – Trackmaster Rating 79 or less
(4) SWEET LULLABY rallied well last time from the back and seems like as good a pick as any in a tough to decipher race. (7) BACKSEAT TERROR was a solid second in a similar class last week. In a field that lacks early speed on paper, she seems viable. (1) NARCIAN JEWEL lands in a good spot upon arrival from Philly and this barn can get them fired up in prime spots.
Race 7 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5
(7) O SO EASY gets a trainer change here, and this exact move worked wonders for another horse earlier in the meet. Former Indiana standout has the GO if Team Miller can pull it out of her. (10) TWO AM is the best horse in the race but stuck in post 10 coming off a layoff. Don’t be surprised if he is ready to roll. (1) TRUEMASS VOLO ranks under the top pair for me, but given the right trip, he can contend.
Race 8 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5 - $50K GTD Pick 4
(3) MISS IRISH ROSE A rallied well last time from an impossible spot in the top class at Monticello and was competitive at the top of the scale at Saratoga as well. Mare has a versatile racing style and seems like a fit here. (8) DONGAL RUNDLSCRK N has been just ok since returning from the layoff. If you search deep in her PP lines, she’s been here before and raced well. (7) BYE BYE MICHELLE was much better in her most recent try. She could be returning to form.
Race 9 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5
(8) MONEY MAVEN continues to earn a good living as he nears his 11-year-old campaign in a couple of weeks. Veteran is down in class and should be rolling off the gate. (7) FOR A DREAMER is more than capable of winning but almost as likely to break. (6) ZOOMING is a millionaire coming off a good effort. Eleven-year-old isn’t what he was but he’s still got enough life to beat this group on his best.
Race 10 – Preferred Handicap
(2) RICH AND MISERABLE got back on track last week and draws way inside his main rivals now. (7) JOEY BATS has proven himself against the best at Dover and now takes the logical step to facing the best here. Perhaps the 4-year-old is ready to announce his presence on the older trotting scene. (10) SOUTHWIND CHROME has proven to be the best right now in this condition but the outside post will test him. (8) MELADY’S MONET is as consistent as they come, but I’m using him underneath only.
Race 11 – Non-winners 4/5 races or $50-$60,000 life
(1) SKYWAY KON MAN took a step in the right direction last week and I’m hoping he breaks through with that effort under his belt. (8) TT’S D-JAY and (10) SMOKE MIRRORS comes out of a tougher race and either could jump up with a big mile here.
Race 12 – Non-winners 4/5 races or $50-60,000 life
(1) AIRMAN KELLY broke in a good spot last week while starting for new trainer Derue for the first time. Now he gets into the bike and maybe that is a good thing. This is another winnable spot. (3) DEPLORABLE TOM also broke in the same race and perhaps the off track had something to do with it; he’s a threat. (7) CREDIT FRAUD raced well versus cheaper last time and might have picked up some confidence.
Race 13 – Non-winners $5,000 in last 5
(4) BROADWAY PROMISE comes off a game win and doesn’t exactly face a strong group. (6) FIJI has been doing decent work in the amateur ranks. He’s a hit here. (5) MIAMI has the early speed to head to the front but owner Gingras has to find a way to get him to last.
Race 14 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5
(4) EYORE HANOVER gets the weak call from me in a difficult race. While he has been making breaks, perhaps the new set of hands and switch to the big track will make a difference. (6) KABU raced ok off the claim versus a much better group. (5) AWOL HANOVER has early speed and should be in contention. (8) DEKEYSER continues to move down the class ladder and the basement condition here could be just what the doctor ordered.