Meadowlands: Friday 1/17 Analysis

MEET STATS: 52-10-10-10 / $51.20 (-$52.80)
BEST BETS: 4-1-1-0 / $5.80 (-$2.20)
BEST BET: MAJOR OCCASION A (5th)
SPOT PLAY: SUMMER ROCK (3rd)
Race 1 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5 - **$25K GTD Pick 5**
(1) THE MAGIC OF LIFE was way overbet and broke again last time out. There is no doubt he could break again, but against this subpar group, I’ll take my chances, because if he trots, he wins. (3) ZOE F is 1 for 18 lifetime and looks like the sharpest, most reliable horse. That says a lot. (4) CHELSEES A WINNER gets a better post and only lost by a length the last time she drew well in this class.
Race 2 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5
(4) SAY YOU DO closed well last time and is more than capable in this class; value play. (6) TROLLEY makes his final start before Monday’s sale and you would think a big effort is coming, but he’s been disappointing over the last few races. (7) DAYSON is back at The Meadowlands in a class where he marched down the road two starts back.
Race 3 – Trackmaster Rating 74.5 or less
(4) SUMMER ROCK won in this class two back and seems likely to fire off the gate here; her race to lose. (5) PRINCESS HOLLY N gets major post relief and the last time she was inside for this TM number, she finished second. (7) SEW PSYCHED picked up Yannick and might be moving fast from the start this week. (1) TAMIKA TERROR hasn’t had a shot yet here from bad posts; maybe.
Race 4 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5
I came back to this race three separate times and even saved it for last hoping that I’d have an epiphany, but I’m simply not enamored with any of these horses. I’m going to take a wild shot in the dark with (9) AXIOS, who has raced well here in the past and is capable of stepping up at times. (7) MASSIVE TALENT should be heading towards the top and be involved. (6) DILUTH picked up his game with Dunn added to the team. (5) GAAGAA GONE makes her final career starts and should leave it all on the track.
Race 5 – Non-winners $15,000 in last 5
(4) MAJOR OCCASION A was driven ultra-conservatively last week and charged home in 25 3/5 to just miss. As long as Dunn is on board with new tactics, I’d expect a monster effort. (3) SANDY WIN picked up her third straight win in this class a week ago and won’t go down without a fight. (8) ODDS ON ST LUCIE has a two-race winning streak of her own; threat. (6) DARKSHADEOFPALE N qualified well enough and this barn won with two Down Under imports last weekend.
Race 6 - $15,000-$20,000 Claiming Handicap
It’s another outside post for (9) STARSABOVEALLERAGE, but he is the best horse in this race. There seems to be just enough early speed in here to give him a shot. (5) ONE DIRECTION gets a new driver and a better post; expect speed. (6) MIAMI couldn’t be sharper, but the price will be short and he’s switching barns. (3) PEMBROKE BADA BING is a consistent sort that fits nicely underneath in exotics.
Race 7 – Non-winners $5,000 in last 5
(4) TRUEMASS VOLO drops a level this week and should have every chance to take this field a long way on the engine. (10) DI OGGI could be 1-5 from post 10 with the barn change to Burke and driver change to Gingras. He might win by five lengths but seems let a play against due to the short price. (1) BIZET broke after an almost four-week break in action, but that was his first start for this barn. Maybe there will be some equipment changes.
Race 8 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(6) MARION GONDOLIER has been taking plenty of air in recent weeks and only needs a smooth journey to take pictures. (7) U NEED STONES gets away from much tougher competition and should race well, but I suspect the price will be shorter than justified. (1) RENTIER triple jumps in class but might just be up to the task. (8) LASA DIDA LADY and (9) RIVER OTTER are sharp and can’t be tossed.
Race 9 – Non-winners 5/6 races or $60/$80,000 life
This race looks like a clear crapshoot and I honestly don’t know how it will shake out. (4) FRESHETTE HANOVER is a capable sort who only needs a reasonable trip to have a win chance. (2) GALIXTON is prone to breaking stride but could certainly win if he behaves. (9) ALL AMERICAN N hasn’t looked spectacular in the qualifiers since shipping here from New Zealand, but what did we really learn from those races where he faced better foes?
Race 10 – Non-winners $6,751 in last 5
(1) I WISH YOU WELL was used hard last time in what was her first start for this barn. On paper, this is a good spot for this 6-year-old. (9) CRACKLIN ROSIE is back at the level where she picked up a win and a second recently. (4) JIMBELINA doesn’t jump off the page, but she’s a live longshot that could make noise with the right trip.
Race 11 – Non-winners $7,500 in last 5
This is another tricky race and I’m going to roll the dice with (8) CLIVE BIGSBY. Five-year-old should be ready for a peak effort in his third start back after a long break in action and you have to expect trainer Jim Campbell will have him sharp since the gelding is being sold Monday. (3) DW’S REVENGE came up big versus a weaker overall group last time. He can build off that mile. (10) LA GRANGE A has some ability and lured Gingras off a couple of others. (1) SEVEN IRON is another sale horse and this guy is dropping in class as well.
Race 12 – Non-winners 5/6 races or $60/$80,000 life
(8) OBERTO never got involved last week while trotting home in 27 seconds and picking off some horses late. That was his first start in 6 weeks and more can be expected now. (2) MISSION HILL keeps stepping up the ladder and winning; clear threat. (4) ESA raced well last time with Lasix added.
Race 13 – Non-winners $10,000 in last 5
(2) BELIEVE IN ME is down in class this week and should bring a top effort. (1) TANGO DANCER N has early speed and form; dangerous. (6) JB’S SHOOTING STAR was super last time besting #1 easily. A repeat mile would produce another win. (8) SLICK ARTIST A makes her second start off the bench for a barn that has come back from suspension hot.
Race 14 – Non-winners $3,500 in last 5
(5) SHES SPORTY A caught a tough group last time and was too far back to menace in her prior start. She picks up a more aggressive driver here and could be rolling off the gate. (1) LILY HAMMER raced well upon arrival and that was off a four-week break. (6) MANHATTAN PLAY is down a notch in class and raced well two weeks ago. (8) TRAFFIC JAM is a fringe trip player and certainly an exotics threat.