Meadowlands: Friday 1/11 Analysis
Best Bet: PHOTO KING (12th)
Spot Play: OPULENT YANKEE (4th)
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 114 - 331 / $653.70 (-$8.30)
BEST BETS: 9 - 27 / $29.20 (-$24.80)
Race 1
(4) FLEUR DE HILL gets post relief and picks up Gingras versus a sketchy group; narrow call. (7) HAMMER CREEK shows recent form but owns just one win in 23 career starts. (8) NO DRAMA DE VIE finished just behind #7 last time. He could be interesting if Berry elects to leave.
Race 2
(7) MUSCLE DIAMOND has dominated this class and doesn’t seem to be bothered by missing weeks in action. (4) CASH ME OUT rallied for second behind the top one when last seen and should offer good value behind him in this spot. (6) TROLLEY weakened on the lead most recently, but that was a nice when speed wasn’t that good; worth consideration. (3) PAPPY GO GO set a career best mile last Friday but had some trouble getting in gear. He won’t be able to boss this field around like he did in the win.
Race 3
(2) PANCAKES comes off a decent attempt and this barn has been doing better lately after an awful start to the meet. Against this lackluster field, she looks as good as any. (7) CHEAP THRILLS dropped to this level two starts back and seems to be more at home. (3) ALWAYS AS FAST will try to transfer her decent Freehold form to the big track.
Race 4
(1) OPULENT YANKEE is down in class and has no excuses. (7) CHROMEO picked up his game on the switch here, but from the outside post he may need some luck. (1A) FLY ON is stuck with a bad starting spot once again but he makes a nice compliment for the top pick as part of an entry. (5) TEXICAN steps up in good form.
Race 5
(2) HAMMER TIME moves back down to the NW3 level and gets one more chance to shine as the top pick. (1) MAX VOLO faced a more accomplished foe last time and won two back. (4) WINBAK NOELLE has early speed and is slated to sell on Jan 21 in the mixed sale; read off the bench?
Race 6
(6) RUBBER DUCK jumped it off while vying for the lead three wide last week. He gets more class relief here and a key driver switch to Gingras. (4) NOWS THE MOMENT raced well after four weeks on the sidelines and could show even more now. (3) HOT SUMMER KNIGHT set a career best mark last time out but loses that driver to the top pick.
Race 7
(9) DELIGHTFULMEMPHISN bested many of these last week from an outside post despite chasing somewhat soft fractions from mid-pack. I’ll stick with her at what should still be a fair price. (3) STORMTRACKER steps up the class ladder off consecutive wins. She’s capable of going with these but I’d insist on at least 3-1. (5) PENPAL tried to close from far back and raced well but not as well as the top pick. I fear she won’t offer value, either.
Race 8
(3) MANDELA BLUE CHIP has been improving as he drops down the condition ladder. Another step down this week could make the difference. (6) MIKEY LIKES IT raced well at big odds when last seen in the NW5000 class. (9) TECH TITAN responded in a big way with Lasix and Gingras added to the equation; steps up. (7) UHLAN NOIR drops down for a barn that is winless at the meet; mixed feelings.
Race 9
(5) DERF HANOVER has rolled to consecutive victories versus similar and I see no reason to get off the bandwagon now. (7) EXS AND OHS has put together back-to-back upsets and will almost certainly be bet now. He’s earned respect. (6) MISS RUBY failed versus #7 last time as the heavy chalk but still could turn the tables.
Race 10
(1) HEPBURN HANOVER is more than capable at this level and she has a huge post edge on the other likely contenders. (10) FOX VALLEY BAILEY steps up after a pair of decisive scores; post is the only issue. (7) THE TIME TO WIN got herself in a bad spot after a slow start. Better positioning could make a difference. (8) LADY OF HEAVEN failed on the lead last time. Mare is running out of opportunity to shine before the mixed sale.
Race 11
This race is a complete crapshoot. (2) STARSABOVEALLERAGE rallied well last time and finds a soft spot. (9) IRON DOME displayed some signs of life last time out and it’s a positive sign that they dropped him out of the claiming ranks. (3) BASTILLE is a veteran capable of stepping up at times and he raced well last week.
Race 12
(6) PHOTO KING has rolled against this kind in consecutive starts and there is no reason to believe the string will end. (3) BELL A CHICK rallied nicely for second in his first start off the bench behind the top pick. He has a shot to do it again or perhaps pull off an upset. (1) MONTALBANO BI is capable if he trots, which is a huge if.
Race 13
(7) LAUDERDALE couldn’t quite go the distance after a six week break on a track that wasn’t favoring early speed; another shot. (5) TWO HIP DIP is capable of stepping up at times and can’t be faulted for his parked-out sixth-place finish last time. (10) FRANKIE MULLINS broke when dropping in class in his final start of 2018 and takes another dip in class this week.
Race 14
(7) OK HEAVENLY was handled conservatively and got into all kinds of traffic trouble last week. She’ll be 2-5 again and has no excuses for failure. (3) DEUCES FOR CHARITY finds the best spot she has seen here and will offer value. (4) MY SISTER LUCIE drops down and is eligible to perk up. (6) BETTOR CHILL OUT picked up some confidence down in company and might just have the class to handle the step up.