Meadowlands: Evaluating the eliminations for the 2020 Hambletonian

One of my favorite times of year is upon us. It's Hambletonian season at The Meadowlands. In a year where we didn't even know if The Hambletonian could happen, I am grateful just to have the race occur. Sure, it will not be a typical Hambletonian Day. For the first time in a long time, I won't be at The Meadowlands for the event, but I will be supporting the racetrack and the event from home.

For the first time since 2012, the Hambletonian Eliminations will take place the week prior to the Hambletonian Final. While I appreciated the rich history of the event with the same-day eliminations, as a bettor, I am glad to see this format return. Knowing the field for a full week as opposed to a couple of hours makes a big difference. Personally, I struggled going into Hambletonian Day forming opinions about certain horses and then changing that opinion based on what I saw in the eliminations. In fact, the only winner I selected when the eliminations were contested on the same day since 2013 was Marion Marauder. I picked Trixton, but that year the race went straight to the Final. So, I welcome this change.

The landscape of the 2020 Hambletonian has changed dramatically. The winter-book favorite, Real Cool Sam, who looked like a superstar last year, did not even make the race. I cannot remember the last time that happened. Amigo Volo, who appeared to be the next in line to carry that torch, has looked far from unbeatable this year. His two wins have come in Pennsylvania Sire Stakes competition, but he has struggled in open company, including a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Stanley Dancer Memorial where he struggled home in just 29 seconds.

The first elimination is a field of eight and seems to pack a bit more horsepower than the second elimination. Back Of The Neck drew the pole and enters the elimination in peak form for trainer Ake Svanstedt, who has no less than four shots at his second Hambletonian win. It took a monstrous effort from Sorella to chase him down in a 26 second final quarter in his 3-year-old debut and in his two subsequent starts he has looked nothing short of sensational. He overcame a trip in the Reynolds that saw him dead last at the head of the stretch, trotting a 26 4/5 final quarter to win from an impossible spot. The following week in the Stanley Dancer, he was much the best, winning in 1:52 and appearing to have plenty left in the tank for the Hambo. Svanstedt also sends out Third Shift in this elimination, a horse that really developed over the winter and was dominant in New York before finishing a good second to his aforementioned stablemate in the Dancer two weeks ago.

Amigo Volo starts to the outside of the two Svanstedt trainees and he looks to build upon a dominant win in the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes last week. While he hasn't looked like a Hambletonian favorite so far this season, his most recent win was very impressive and could indicate that the gelded son of Father Patrick is moving in the right direction. Big Oil was a decent third in the Dancer behind Back Of The Neck and Third Shift, moving to the inside and trotting past Amigo Volo late. His speed makes him dangerous for Team Orange Crush and he isn't too far behind the best of these. In a weird scenario, Maesteraemon completes the inside five in the first elimination, and those five actually finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the same Dancer division.

Of the two Marcus Melander trainees in the first elimination, I prefer Hollywood Story, who I liked quite a bit in the Dancer and he raced very well. Driver Tim Tetrick will have to work out a trip here though, because I have to believe that Ramona Hill and Beads to his outside will be aggressive off the gate, and Tetrick does not want to get away last here, so tactics early-on will be critical. Based on race-shape, I think Melander could be up against it making the final with both his colts here. Ramona Hill may be the greatest post-10 horse of all time. Give her post 10 and she just takes off from the gate and dominates. If you make the argument that she needed her first race and the Del Miller signals where she is physically coming into this, she is as good as any in here and has a huge chance.

The second elimination appears to be Sister Sledge vs. Ready For Moni on paper, and Yannick Gingras, who was listed on both, announced on Twitter that he is taking Ready For Moni. It's an ironic twist for Gingras as he takes the Nancy Takter colt over the Ron Burke filly, while five years ago, Gingras drove both Mission Brief and Pinkman to victories in their Hambletonian eliminations and chose the Burke trained Mission Brief over the Jimmy Takter trained Pinkman, who would go on to win the Final. Sister Sledge will be racing without Lasix, which could have played a part in Gingras' decision, as we have seen horses struggle when taken off the medication in this spot before. Ready For Moni fired a huge shot in his first start off the layoff and trainer Nancy Takter has won a ridiculous 39.6% of her starts at The Meadowlands this season (25 for 63).

There are two wild cards in the race. The first is Rome Pays Off, one of the four that Marcus Melander has entered into the Hambletonian. He had a solid 2-year-old campaign that saw him earn over $330,000, including a runner-up finish in the Breeders Crown. His qualifiers in preparation for his 3-year-old season didn't look like much, but it has been a different story when the tote board has been turned on. He has won both starts this year, including a very impressive 1:52 3/5 performance in the Tompkins Geers against a solid field that included Jula Trix Treasure, who he meets again in this elimination.

The other wild card is Moon Bridge. There just is not much speed in this field and I fully expect Andy Miller to blast off the gate here. He will likely have to clear Sister Sledge early, and if he does, and avoids a retake from the filly, he may forget to stop. He may not have the accomplishments of others entered in the Hambletonian, but speed on this track, this time of year, in a field lacking early foot, is a dangerous thing.

My predictions for who will qualify for the Hambletonian Final, in no particular order:

Elimination One: Back Of The Neck, Third Shift, Amigo Volo, Big Oil, Ramona Hill

Elimination Two: Sister Sledge, Rome Pays Off, Ready For Moni, Chestnut Hill, Moon Bridge

It is truly a wide-open year for the Hambletonian. Marcus Melander and Ake Svanstedt have a combined 8 of the 17 horses entered (four each), but there are certainly others who can spoil their Hambletonian party. Enjoy Hambletonian 2020!