Meadowlands: Digging into the final numbers for the meet
The 2019 Meadowlands Championship Meet is in the books, the first with purse money injections from both sports betting and legislation that subsidized horse racing purses in the state. At the end of the year, The Meadowlands along with other interested parties in New Jersey will have to submit data to the New Jersey legislators supporting the notion that the purse subsidy is helping the racing industry. While a part of that data will include increases in stallions present in the state as well as mares being bred, performance of the racetracks will also be key to the cause.
On the top line, Meadowlands handle yielded a sharp increase over 2018, when comparing the 45 dates that received additional purse money to the same racing dates last year. Over the course of those 45 “like days” (dating back to the first Saturday in March), there was $127 Million wagered on The Meadowlands product, compared to just over $104 Million in 2018, an increase of $22.95 Million, or 22.06%. That $22.95 Million likely produced approximately $1.5 Million in revenue for racetrack operations, purses, tax dollars for the state, etc.
Naturally, the additional purse money available has attracted more horses, which led to more races. Over the 45 like days, The Meadowlands contested 592 races this year, consisting of 5,315 betting interests (8.97 betting interests per race), compared to 501 races in 2018, consisting of 4,217 betting interests (8.41 betting interests per race).
The tricky element to this analysis is that the top-line numbers far exceed some of the other analytics. To compare it to baseball, it would be like a baseball player suddenly hitting for a .330 batting average, while the saber-metrics don’t support that player’s batting average.
Total handle is up, by a large amount. But as mentioned above, The Meadowlands contested 91 more races over the same period of time contributing to their being 1,098 more betting interests over the 592 total races. It would be impossible for a racetrack to run that many more races, with that many more horses, and not show sizable gains in handle. When you dive deeper, the numbers plateau and in some areas, even fall-off.
Average handle per race over the 45 like days in 2019 was $209,198, compared to $202,842 last year. Therefore, although total handle yielded a 22.06% increase, the average handle per race produced only a 3.13% increase.
Additionally, the handle per betting interest for the like period in 2019 was $23,348, while last year, that number was $24,249. Therefore, handle per betting interest decreased 3.72% overall.
What does this mean? First and foremost, when you realize a spike in the horse population from one year to the next like The Meadowlands has, it is very difficult for handle to keep up when drilling down to each betting interest. Last year The Meadowlands had 15 days over the like period that attracted 100 betting interests or more, this year that number exploded to 44. Ironically, The Meadowlands may have been better served actually adding some dates, something that I have been against until seeing these numbers. The best night The Meadowlands had when analyzing handle per betting interest, excluding Meadowlands Pace and Hambletonian Day, was June 8th when there were just 108 betting interests, the second lowest total of the period.
Essentially, The Meadowlands received too much of a good thing at one time. The betting handle just couldn’t keep up on a per-race or per-betting interest level. My hope is that over the next several years, those deeper analytics will accelerate and that this is not an indication that there is a cap as to how much betting handle The Meadowlands can actually receive.
In terms of purse money, since they began increasing the purses at the beginning of March, The Meadowlands has spent $17.22 Million on total purses compared to $13.68 Million over the same period last year. If you remove Hambletonian Day and Meadowlands Pace night, which include the vast majority of stakes money spent, The Meadowlands spent $13.54 Million this year compared to $9.78 Million last year. An additional $3.76 Million in purses spent equates to $83,500 per racing card. If they keep up that pace for their dates in October through December, they will spend another $1.84 Million in additional purses, putting them at $5.6 Million more spent compared to last year. They are right on target in their purse money spent complying with the legislation.
Similarly to the handle per betting interest figures, The Meadowlands is getting less return on every dollar they spend on purses, although the overall difference is minimal. Over the like period in 2018, The Meadowlands received $7.61 in handle for every dollar spent on purses, compared to $7.38 in 2019. Considering the huge increase in purse money spent, that’s not bad at all.
There are two definitive trends that I see when looking deep into these numbers. First and foremost, with the exception of Hambletonian Day, The Meadowlands should never contest 14 races on a program. It’s too much for the bettors. Since March 1st, The Meadowlands contested 14 races on seven different racing programs (not including Hambletonian Day). On none of those nights did handle reach $3 Million. In fact, the highest total for any of those nights was $2.73 Million. On none of those nights did the average handle per race reach $200,000, compared to $214,985 on all other racing programs. In addition, the average handle per betting interest on the 14-race programs was $20,186, compared to $23,967 on nights with 13 races or less.
Secondly, The Meadowlands should never run more races on a Friday night than on a Saturday. They should always run fewer on Friday. Why? On Friday nights, the average handle per race was just over $193,000. On Saturday nights, that number spikes to $221,500, without including Meadowlands Pace and Hambletonian Day. In addition, there is $24,500 wagered on each betting interest on Saturday nights, again, not including the Pace or Hambletonian, compared to $21,800 on Friday nights.
There are many positive trends right now for The Meadowlands and New Jersey. If The Meadowlands were able to maximize the distribution of their signal and make a few adjustments, I believe $4 Million being bet on a racing program would become a common occurrence. I will be curious to see The Meadowlands performance in the winter months, when competition is at a minimum. They could be flooded with horses from December through March and adding a third racing day each week may be in their best interest. There would be nothing wrong with contesting three programs at a total of 34 races for the three nights, racing 10 one night, 11 on Friday and 13 on Saturday. The numbers show they wouldn’t handle anything less on an average Thursday night race than they do on the 13th or 14th race on a Saturday night. Overall, they have made great progress and with a few tweaks, they could build on this year and have an even stronger 2020.