Meadowlands: Breaking down the 2020 'Pace'

Handicapping the 2020 Meadowlands Pace final brings with it elements many players have never had to encounter. Primarily, the loss of a significant portion of the early season stakes schedule to the COVID-19 virus has eroded what would have been fertile ground to sufficiently analyze exactly where all 10 finalists earned their places. Perhaps as important was that eight of the 10 in Saturday’s event arrived there after going around the track in a certifiable "non-race" as likely favorite Tall Dark Stranger set the tempo early and nine other drivers attempted for the last three quarters to stay out of trouble and avoid finishing ninth or tenth.

It is the substance of that elimination race that needs to be examined in a way that most handicappers never try to. A predominant number of people who play the races put a large percentage of focus on the most recent past performance line. In the case of the Meadowlands Pace elimination held last Saturday, it should only be viewed with the strength one would put on a qualifying race. That said, all eight horses raced well enough to be considered ready for the final. Tall Dark Stranger, the race-winner, did what was expected of him and can’t be faulted for that. On the other hand, driver Yannick Gingras was in a rare position, as literally no horses in the front flank were willing to pull and offer an instant or quick accelerated challenge. With only Capt Midnight being rated while on a long coverless grind, Gingras and Tall Dark Stranger had the freedom to do as they pleased.

An analysis of Tall Dark Stranger's performance, in my mind, is no different than the rest who performed on Saturday: Incomplete. He has won both of his starts this year, with his first effort impressive but hardly conclusive given that he enjoyed a good cover trip and then moved just about the same time Escapetothebeach was jumping over an object while on the lead. Tall Dark Stranger drew the rail in his first start and post three in his second, making both his winning trips far less stressful than some he’ll face on Saturday.

Trainer Nancy Takter's entire stable has come out ready at first call while other trainers' horses in the final appear to have taken a different approach. This of course does not mean that Tall Dark Stranger isn’t the best horse in this group, he may very well be, but that what we have seen of him from his first two starts is what he is, versus what some of the nine others may turn out to be.

That's what makes looking at this year’s Meadowlands Pace so fascinating. There’s more nuance involved in trying to take from what's been seen and extrapolate on it. One horse that has shown vast improvement from his juvenile form to today is Allywag Hanover, one of two finalists for trainer Brett Pelling. Allywag Hanover used his "bye" effectively by winning last Friday in a Pennsylvania Sire Stakes at Harrar's Philadelphia. It was his first start this year for driver Tim Tetrick and visually the two were impressive, navigating the victory over a sloppy surface. Pelling credited driver David Miller for keeping Allywag Hanover calm during his first two wins at The Meadowlands. Tetrick was able to settle Allywag Hanover easily in the early stages and then the son of Captaintreacherous was vicious when called upon. Tetrick drove his sire to the 2013 Meadowlands Pace title.

When Allywag Hanover drew post three for the final with Tetrick, it suggested to me that he would be the key to the race and not Tall Dark Stranger. Year after year Tetrick shows us on the big stage that he can put a horse in the right spot while at the same time assessing the speed necessary to get there. Even last year when he drove Workin Ona Mystery, he was exactly where he needed to be despite drawing post nine against a 1-2 shot in Captain Crunch, who landed the rail. It’s more likely Tetrick will dictate the action on Saturday rather than following with Allywag Hanover.

On reputation, Papi Rob Hanover is a player in the final. Unlike Tall Dark Stranger, a horse he beat in last year's Breeders Crown only to be taken down, Papi Rob Hanover has drawn poorly in every start this year. Two post 10's offered Papi Rob Hanover the chance to race with cover on both occasions, but I would hardly suggest that second-over is a "perfect trip" in this day and age. Speed dominates most races and it did on both occasions. Papi Rob Hanover was forced overland, albeit with cover.

Post nine for the final is Papi Rob Hanover's plight, but there is every reason to believe it will prove less of an obstacle than some may think. Driver David Miller knows he needs to be at least in the top five in the early stages, so expect a far more aggressive steer from him.

One horse that was disappointing in the "Pace" elimination was Major Betts. The son of Art Major showed extreme speed throughout his juvenile campaign but was erratic at times. He was perfectly mannered last Saturday and that driver Dexter Dunn tipped him from the pocket would suggest he had thoughts of passing Tall Dark Stranger. Major Betts faded to sixth then drew post eight for the final. Major Betts shows plenty of early speed in his past performances, but I wonder if Dunn, after last week's mile, will be less assertive early.

Manticore is an interesting horse from post six. The Bruce Saunders-trained son of Western Ideal has flown under the radar this year, but has been going forward in the stretch each race against this level competition. Driver Jordan Stratton has left the gate each week but settled for off-the-pace trips with Manticore. With the big money riding on Saturday, what better time for Stratton to put his horse close to the lead.

Trainer Tony Alagna has three good horses that in my mind are all capable of winning this race. Captain Kirk (post 10) had pace early and late in the elimination, but young driver Joe Bongiorno may never get that kind of trip again, at least not this week. Captain Barbossa (post 3) has Brian Sears, who orchestrated a major upset with Best In Show in last year’s edition. Capt Midnight (post 7) gets a second chance after Chief Mate withdrew to race at The Meadows this Saturday in a Pennsylvania Sire Stakes. While he is clearly more capable, Capt Midnight in my mind had the benefit of soft fractions in the elimination and gave way badly. Driver Andrew McCarthy is never afraid to pull the trigger early and may want to make up for last week’s steer in the final.

Last year Catch The Fire showed some brilliance at The Red Mile winning the Kentucky Sire Stakes final in 1:49 4/5. He beat Roll With Jr on that occasion. The pair drew posts two and one, respectively. They essentially are unknowns against this level. Catch The Fire did what he had to do to qualify last week racing from off the pace. He’s shown plenty of early speed as a 2-year-old. Trainer Jeff Cullipher has been red-hot since racing returned to the Meadowlands and his Roll With Jr got the best of the draw. Still he seems an outsider against this caliber field.

In the final analysis, I think Pelling has the power here and Papi Rob Hanover is likely to be the best value of the duo.